Many thanks to everyone who follows Optimally Irrational! I am very glad that this Substack devoted to presenting deep insights into human behaviour in an accessible form has found such a large audience. www.optimallyirrational.com
Lionel Page
@lionelpage.bsky.social
Director of UQ Centre for Unified Behavioural and Economic Sciences. Editor of the Journal of the Economic Science Association. Book: ‘Optimally Irrational’, Substack: https://www.optimallyirrational.com/
The potential of AIs becoming self-aware is not the most urgent issue, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social: “The key question about future AI risk is not whether AI agents will become self-aware; it is which goals they will have as they become more and more powerful.” buff.ly/4AfIPt6
In the final instalment of his splendid series of posts on morality, @lionelpage.bsky.social ties a nice bow around all the insights that answer the question, “So, what is morality?”, and addresses some outstanding challenges to the conclusions: buff.ly/aVrkIUp
It is. In case it's of interest, Ken Binmore has my favourite elaboration of social contract theory in the light of a century of game theory. It's explored informally in a nice sequence of substack posts by @lionelpage.bsky.social
Toddlers effortlessly recognize unfairness when they see it—yet agreeing with others what is, and isn’t, fair eludes even learned scholars. @lionelpage.bsky.social wisely avoids trying to definitively define fairness, but digs into how we seek agreement about it: buff.ly/W2SRDsR
How do we agree on what is “fair” without endless haggling? A post on the psychology and game theory of fairness, with a solution to the egalitarian vs utilitarian debate. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/how-we-dec...
How we decide what is fair in everyday life
Equality or overall satisfaction?
optimallyirrational.com
Fairness is not some mysterious moral force binding our actions. It is a social solution to a pervasive problem: once cooperation creates gains, who gets what? www.optimallyirrational.com/p/what-is-fa...
Robert Trivers, a theoretical genius and likely the Einstein of evolutionary biology, passed away. His theories of reciprocal altruism, parental investment, and self deception are among the deepest and most encompassing in the social sciences. Great post on them by @lionelpage.bsky.social
“In several key contributions, Trivers helped lift the veil on the underlying logic of human behaviour.” @lionelpage.bsky.social reviews the work of the scientist deservedly characterized as Darwin’s heir, Robert Trivers, who died two weeks ago: buff.ly/YsCN41T
The game theory of cooperation • Explained simply
The game theory of cooperation
Explained simply
optimallyirrational.com
One of the most important insights of game theory is that cooperation is often rational. Indeed, it helps us understand why cooperation exists and how it works in practice. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-game-t...
The game theory of cooperation
Explained simply
optimallyirrational.com
If morality is fundamentally a human affair, then game theory provides a framework that explains morality, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social in the latest instalment of his series on human morality: buff.ly/X5QMJTi
Evolution is often framed as a cosmic struggle of all against all. Yet everything we observe about life is the product of cooperation. Understanding how cooperation is sustained is a key insight for thinking about how to organise society. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/cooperatio...
Cooperation is the scaffolding principle of life
From cells to humans, cooperation is a key principle of evolution
optimallyirrational.com
Kant is notoriously hard to read. Here I explain his moral philosophy simply, and I criticise it, drawing on the careful thinking about rationality forged in game theory. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/dekanting-...
Dekanting moral philosophy
Unconditional moral duties do not follow from pure rationality
optimallyirrational.com
The seizure makes no strategic sense for the US. It would be one of the biggest acts of geopolitical self-harm a US President has ever committed. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/what-if-th...
"161. Lionel Page: Gossip — how Psychopaths Attack your Reputation" Brad Carr Podcast @lionelpage.bsky.social 15 Jan 2026 [1:21:27] #Cult https://s.cultpodcasts.com/jvFO1WnJCEmzO2eax0JzTg
Gossip: How Psychopaths Attack Your Reputation | Lionel Page
Why are psychopaths so skilled at telling lies? Lionel Page explains gossip, lying, and the games of social life. 00:00 In This Episode 00:31 What Makes a Good Liar? 05:07 Why Psychopaths Lack Guilt 06:02 The Purpose of Communication 11:15 The Cost of Lying 14:40 The Key to Reputation 18:17 Guilt Is the Shadow of the Future 19:10 Gossip: How Psychopaths Attack Reputation 25:55 How to Detect Deception 31:05 Psychopaths Are Like Gamblers 36:42 How to Use a Gut Feeling 43:43 How to Deceive Yourself 46:32 Why Do We Watch Sports? 50:44 What Luxury Brands Say About Us 57:43 How to Deter Our Adversaries 1:05:16 Nuclear War and Deterrence 1:11:05 Seeing the Games In Social Life 1:15:50 Find Lionel Page Online 1:16:45 The Game of Interviewing Lionel Page's book: https://amzn.to/4bvCOVF Lionel Page on Substack: https://www.optimallyirrational.com/ Brad's microphone: https://amzn.to/4jVOjqq 🔔 SUBSCRIBE to help get more guests on the show: https://goo.gl/uEAeNp Gossip: The Psychopath's Superpower | Lionel Page Gossip: How Psychopaths Attack Your Reputation | Lionel Page How Psychopaths Use Gossip and Lies to Attack You | Lionel Page Psychopaths Are the Best Liars. This Is How They Do It. | Lionel Page The Real Reason You're Bad at Lying | Lionel Page
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Earlier, @lionelpage.bsky.social argued against absolute moral truths. Here he explains how morality can be relative—operationalized as contractarianism—without being moral relativism, subjectivism, and a range of other -isms. A veritable tour-de-force 👏: buff.ly/uqbgcZa
Is morality relative? • And if so to what extent
Is morality relative?
And if so to what extent
optimallyirrational.com
Is morality relative to each society? This view is common in the public but unpopular among philosophers. We can see morality as grounded in a society’s social contract--and thus relative--without the usual “anything goes” associated with "relativism". www.optimallyirrational.com/p/is-moralit...
Is morality relative?
And if so to what extent
optimallyirrational.com
A key objection to ‘morality as a convention’ (rather than absolute truth) is that ‘anything goes’. @lionelpage.bsky.social deftly counters this argument and shows why its method is flawed, and proposes respect for a social contract as a more robust explanation: buff.ly/LJRPe0b
A defence of morality as respect for a social contract • The absence of absolute moral truths does not mean that "anything is permitted"
A defence of morality as respect for a social contract
The absence of absolute moral truths does not mean that "anything is permitted"
optimallyirrational.com
Very much this energy : m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mUb...
"The missile is too round, it needs to be pointy!" | The Dictator | CLIP
YouTube video by Boxoffice Movie Scenes
m.youtube.com
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 8mo agoTrump: "The US Navy will lead the design of these ships along with me, because I'm a very aesthetic person"
A defence of morality as respect for a social contract. Moral, legal and ethical systems are conventions, but they are not arbitrary: they are constrained by the structure of conflict and cooperation in society. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/a-defence-...
Morality as respect for a social contract
The absence of objective moral truths does not mean that "anything is permitted"
optimallyirrational.com
Universities worldwide are increasingly shaped by corporate, profit-driven logic. Australia is sadly ahead of the curve. The Parliamentary inquiry report just released rightly points to the core problem: academics have been marginalised in governance. www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentar...
Morality works without absolute moral truths • Replacing theories of the Good and the Right with a theory of the Seemly
Morality works without absolute moral truths
Replacing theories of the Good and the Right with a theory of the Seemly
optimallyirrational.com
Can morality still make sense if there are no absolute moral truths? Almost 300 years ago, Hume said yes: moral systems are conventions that foster social cooperation, and our moral emotions are designed to help us navigate these conventions. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/morality-w...
Morality works without absolute moral truths
Replacing theories of the Good and the Right with a theory of the Seemly
optimallyirrational.com
Would it occur to Elon Musk that Russia would also cheer for the US to break up into 50 “sovereign” independent states, while at the same time trying to forcibly reintegrate former states from the USSR which are now independent?
Many secular philosophers still want “moral laws” to be objectively true. But to get there they have to smuggle an unconditional ought out of pure is. In spite of its appeal, the idea that there are objective moral truths "out there" is misguided. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/there-are-...
There are no moral laws out there
A criticism of moral realism
optimallyirrational.com
End of year reading by David Spiegelhalter and @lionelpage.bsky.social. Very much looking forward to digging in!
