In today’s post, I argue that too little forward guidance risks making central banks captive to volatile market expectations. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/when-centr...
When central banks say nothing at all
Short comment
gerlachmacro.substack.com
Rebecca Stuart
@rebstuart.bsky.social
Irish monetary historian working on Swiss data, lecturer University of Neuchâtel and ZHAW, Honorary Professor of Practice in Finance, Queen’s University Belfast.
During the summer break, I published a paper with @rebstuart.bsky.social based on a research project on macrofinancial topics in 19th-century Switzerland. Available open access! 👇 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... Data are available on my website 👇 dankaufmann.com/data/
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Now on Early View: 'Private money and money market integration: The role of payments infrastructure in nineteenth-century Switzerland. By Daniel Kaufmann & Rebecca Stuart. @kaufmanndani.bsky.social @rebstuart.bsky.social @qubelfastofficial.bsky.social @cepr.org #EHS100
<em>The Economic History Review</em> | EHS Journal | Wiley Online Library
Using newly collected discount rate data for six Swiss cities from 1846 to 1893, we find no evidence of increasing integration during a 30-year period of lightly regulated free banking. We attribute ...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Pssst. It's us. The New York Fed is here on Bluesky. Make your way to the front of the line to become one of our earliest followers. And feel free to repost! It's not really a secret!
Some thoughts on why central banks are unlikely to change interest rates this week: swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Central Banks and the Case for Inaction
This will be an unusually busy week for central banks.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
Should be good!
Economic & Social History Society of Ireland@eshsi.bsky.social · 8mo agoWe’re delighted to announce the society's 2026 Distinguished Lecture will be delivered by Prof Tyler Anbinder of George Washington University. "The Surprising Socio-Economic Mobility of New York’s Great Famine Refugees" Online, 4pm GMT (11am EST), Thurs. 5 Mar. 2026. Register here: www.eshsi.org
We’re delighted to announce the society's 2026 Distinguished Lecture will be delivered by Prof Tyler Anbinder of George Washington University. "The Surprising Socio-Economic Mobility of New York’s Great Famine Refugees" Online, 4pm GMT (11am EST), Thurs. 5 Mar. 2026. Register here: www.eshsi.org
Very happy to announce that I have been appointed a Research Fellow in the @cepr.org Economic History programme! The CEPR is such an important part of the European economics network and I am looking forward to engaging in and benefiting from its many activities.
In today’s post I look at the Italian bond conversion in 1906. It shows how a government can reduce its interest burden by locking in improved credit conditions, without default or coercion. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/the-italia...
The Italian Bond Conversion of 1906
How Italy lowered its interest payments
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
An interesting presentation by SNB President Martin Schlegel at the 2025 SNB Watchers conference this afternoon. www.snb.ch/en/publicati...
The path to the monetary policy decision at the SNB
snb.ch
📢 Virtual Workshop on French Economic History At 5:00 pm CET, @zhexunmo.bsky.social (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality, CUNY) will present: “Soldiers versus Laborers: Legacies of Colonial Military Service and Forced Labor in Mali” Interested in joining? Email me for the Zoom link.
I began looking into how Swiss banks fared in the Great Depression and found a paper on the near failure of the Schweizerische Volksbank in 1933. It deserves wider attention, so I decided to write a post based on it. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/blowing-up...
Blowing Up the Second-Largest Swiss Bank
The 1933 rescue of the Schweizerische Volksbank
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
The Riksbank is looking for a new Deputy Governor. Central banks should advertise all senior positions — if the pool is restricted to insiders there can be no presumption that the best possible candidate is appointed. www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-...
Recruitment of new Executive Board member initiated
The General Council of the Riksbank has decided to begin a recruitment process for a new member of the Executive Board of the Riksbank. The General Council also
riksbank.se
Stephen Miran, the Fed’s newest governor, used his first speech to argue that the neutral rate has plunged after this year’s sharp shift in US economic policy. It is a striking claim — and it raises the obvious question: is he right? swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/governor-m...
Governor Miran’s first speech
Has the neutral rate fallen sharply?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006,” by Lyons (@ronanlyons), Shertzer (@econhist-allday), Gray (@econhistoryorbust), and Agorastos: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006*
Abstract. We construct the first annual market rent and home sales price series for American cities over the 20th century using 2.7 million newspaper real
doi.org
Extraordinary news: Joel Mokyr has won the Nobel for his work on the Industrial Revolution. Entirely deserved, though in truth, he ought to win another for his work on the Great Irish Famine, which transformed how we think about Ireland’s nineteenth century and the economic history of catastrophe.
In today’s post, I look at the upcoming decision of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, MAS: swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/the-mas-at...
The MAS at the Crossroads
Decision finely balanced, but patience likely to prevail for now
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
In today’s post, I look at Martin Schlegel’s excellent first year as SNB president. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/martin-sch...
Martin Schlegel’s First Year as SNB President
A promising start with hopes of more to come
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
Manuscript done ✅ Off to production at Bloomsbury! The book revisits Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations at 250, rethinking prosperity through inclusive wealth & sustainability More soon… 📖✨
Paper two presented by Emma Horgan @ucc.ie Discusses the effect of uncertainty on a range of newly constructed historical data series from 1945, paper with @seanekh.bsky.social and @a-fergal.bsky.social
@eoinaldo.bsky.social kicks of the Irish Macrohist workshop 2025 in @ucc.ie “Explaining the retreat of the Irish Language Fronteir”, paper with @cliochris.bsky.social and Alan Fernihough
@seanekh.bsky.social’s @ucc.ie paper presents a new improved Quarterly Irish GDP series from 1950, written with @rebstuart.bsky.social, as part of this @researchireland.ie pathways project on “External Shocks and Fiscal Sustainability”
Seasonally adjusted data show that Swiss inflation has strengthened over the summer, with annualised three-month inflation now running at about 1%. This suggests that underlying inflation is firmer than the annual figures imply. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...
Quick comment: Swiss inflation in August
Seasonal adjustment reveals summer uptick
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
A US default may sound implausible. History shows it is not unprecedented. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/could-the-...
Could the US Default on its Public Debt? Lessons from 1933
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
One-year visiting position for advanced female postdocs in Dresden. I am happy to host anyone broadly interested in applied micro. Salary within the German public sector's pay scale (TV-L, E13-E15). Deadline: Sept 15, 2025. Please share widely! 👇
Today I take a look at inflation in Australia and the upcoming RBA meeting. Expect a 25 bps cut. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/new-inflat...
New Inflation Data Point to an RBA Cut
Punchline: The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by holding rates steady in July, but the decision seems more understandable in hindsight given the limited CPI data available at the time.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com