Using ~8.5k election-poll-party observations from 372 elections in 32 countries, we find a persistent partisan asymmetry: polls tend to overestimate the left relative to the right. On average across elections, polls the month before an election overstated the left by about 1.4 points
Chris Terry-Enescu
@cjterry.bsky.social
Former political researcher and professional elections nerd specialising in electoral and party systems. Current day market research analyst for museums, heritage, the arts and charities around the world. UK's number one Romania-phile. Still a nerd. He/him
Meta has made it repeatedly clear that one of their growth strategies is sexualizing kids. Mark Zuckerberg and his leadership team deserve to face personal liability for this, and the company deserves sanctions up to and including corporate dissolution
Over the last nine months, Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta has run dozens of paid ads that include explicit AI-generated child sexual abuse material (CSAM) and images of minors alongside sexually suggestive statements, according to details of the ads shared with WIRED.
Incredible. Even while u-turning Kemi will just not back down.
In a post on X he says he’ll instead be advising the Conservative Party on how young men become radicalised
Me logging back into BlueSky after a hard morning of work and checking my notifications
혼파망 피자
ALT: 혼파망 피자
static.klipy.com
Limmy: Don't Back Down, Double Down
Alt: Limmy: Don't Back Down, Double Down
static.klipy.com
Somehow Kemi on R4 has just backed herself into the utterly farcical line "come on now it's not a *national* platform - he's only gonna be a Tory councillor, not a Tory MP!"
Though the article says that he received communications from Reform at times saying he could run, I can frankly buy that there was something of a power struggle over whether to let him stand given Farage's history of trying to keep out violent extreme right activists.
It doesn't say much for the Conservative Party that this is the quality of candidate who wants to stand for them now—and that they're willing to defend his selection.
Once again we’re in the Arrested Development meme. Did trying to get single market access without free movement of people work in the past? God no … but it might work for us.
Nick Boles on his plan for a European confederation. Paper with Demos coming later www.thetimes.com/article/8459...
I will fight and die on the hill that no one fought braver and better in 1940 than the French army in June, knowing that their best troops had already been lost and the Germans would show them little mercy
This is profoundly upsetting
About once a decade the British government tries to reinvent Grammar Schools and you just have to wait it out
Andy Burnham correctly points out in an interview that small boat crossings are massively down this year compared with last. The comments in the post are filled with people suggesting he is lying about this very clear, data-evidenced fact. It’s almost as though they don’t want it to he true…
Hearing from CCHQ that Susan Ball's team are quietly confident. I'm sorry, just realised I hadn't seen this joke yet and wondered if the counters were waiting for it before revealing the result.
Sam Coates: Manchester mayoral contest goes to second round
With today's poll from BMG, it looks like Labour's poll bounce under Burnham has been on average ~4.7 points. A 2 point bounce when Starmer resigned and a further 2.7 points when Burnham became PM
No professional accomplishment has ever made me happier than this. theonion.com/translator-o...
Translator Of Original ‘Minions’ Epic Poem Slams ‘Sexless, Bloodless’ Film Adaptation
PHILADELPHIA—In a 4,500-word essay published in Harper’s Magazine, Emily Wilson, known for her popular translation of the Minions epic poem, blasted the latest film Thursday as a “sexless, bloodless” ...
theonion.com
Oh good, woowoo science and woowoo education policy! What a delightful twofer.
“While traits of ADHD undeniably exist – the question is why they exist. Is ADHD actually a neurodevelopmental disorder? Do people with ADHD have differently wired brains? Or does our world – with…processed food, and regimented education – serve as the catalyst for certain…patterns of behaviour?”
We need to take a moment to salute Gianni Infantino for being the first person in history to get 55 European countries to unanimously agree on anything.
For the third time this year, I have done democracied. Please, no more
Me looking at that North Carolina score for Roy Cooper
NEW POLL 📊 Fox News Senate Polls (June/July) GEORGIA: 🔵 Ossoff 56% (+13) 🔴 Collins 43% NORTH CAROLINA: 🔵 Cooper 53% (+9) 🔴 Whatley 44% OHIO: 🔵 Brown 53% (+8) 🔴 Husted 45% IOWA: 🔵 Turek 50% (+4) 🔴 Hinson 46% (Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw, A-rated, RV)
(Swiss) politicians are bad at knowing what voters actually want. There is a clear conservatism bias: Political elites systematically perceive voters as more conservative than they really are, irrespective of the actual policy debate (e.g., raising retirement age) www.defacto.expert/2026/07/28/s...
I am watching a YouTube vid about the 1997 film 'Conspiracy Theory' in which Mel Gibson plays a conspiracy theorist who is proved right. A lot of the comments are like "the role Mel was born to play" and YouTube's new AI categories system has categorised them as "Gibson shines in quirky comedy"
People talking about 1976: "we weren't dramatic like these days, we just got on with it" Also, 1976: "we have appointed a Minister for Drought and are forcing him to dance for rain"
oh my god
In case you missed it, the Green Party in Hackney spearheaded a cancellation of the borough's twinning agreement with Haifa, which is one thing, but the Mayor of Hackney has now written to the Mayor of Haifa requesting a reply by *October 7*, which is either stupid or pretty evil, take your pick.
Look, 3 days later it rained so heavily that he became known as the minister for floods. It clearly worked. You can't say it didn't work
oh my god