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FPA Journal

@fpajrnl.bsky.social

Foreign Policy Analysis - An International Studies Association (ISA) Journal Editors-in-Chief: Brian Lai & Lisbeth Aggestam

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FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · last wk.

IA over AI (Intellectual Authorship over Artificial Intelligence) Together with many leading journals in the field of International Relations, we are committed to work for intellectual rigour, originality, and scholarly quality in the research we publish.

FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 4w ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Galambos and Nurullayev (2026) examine dissimilar goods provision in the context of US-China aid competition. With both aid models providing different goods, they find the American hierarchical model reducies Chinese development finance. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: US Hierarchy, Chinese Development Finance, and Great Power Competition Abstract: How do great powers compete for influence? A common assumption in research on aid competition posits that rival donors provide similar goods when outbidding each other for international support. Yet, political relationships like hierarchies between dominant and subordinate partners grant the former some legitimate authority over the latter in exchange for various forms of side payment—political, economic, and security. We re-visit donor competition by examining dissimilar goods provision in the US-China context. Whereas the United States maintains hierarchies with multiple forms of patronage, China challenges those relationships with a single form of inducement: development finance. The effectiveness of this revisionist financing depends on expected recipient concessions, which are inversely related to costs of realignment. Beijing disburses more financing to recipients with lower costs—those with less dependence on Washington for fungible goods. Where China cannot offer comparable alternatives, side-switching costs deter revisionist investment. We use a series of two-stage models to show that American hierarchies reduce flows of Chinese development finance.
MP Broache@mbroache.bsky.social · last mo.

In case you're wondering how #ICC States Parties might respond to the Trump administration's latest attacks on the Court, check out my @fpajrnl.bsky.social piece (from 2023) w/ @kylereed.bsky.social on responses to the Trump I sanctions against the Court academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...

Who Stands Up for the ICC? Explaining Variation in State Party Responses to US Sanctions

Abstract. On September 2, 2020, the United States sanctioned two International Criminal Court (ICC) officials, under an executive order issued 3 months pre

academic.oup.com

FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Hidaka, Kubota, Matsuura, and Yukawa (2026) consider how leader biography shapes WMD proliferation. They find that leaders who studied in Western nuclear powers were more likely to pursue nuclear weapons, but discouraged from CBW development. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Taught by the West, Armed for the Future? Study Abroad and WMD Proliferation Abstract: What personal characteristics lead political leaders to pursue weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)? This study develops a theory that leaders’ Western educational experiences shape their beliefs and values toward WMD development through socialization and instrumental learning. We distinguish between nuclear weapons and chemical and biological weapons (CBWs), proposing that studying in Western nuclear powers increases the likelihood of nuclear pursuit while discouraging CBW development. We test these hypotheses using an original dataset of leaders’ educational backgrounds (1945–2000) and find robust evidence consistent with our theory. Western education overall discourages WMD pursuit, but studying in nuclear-armed Western states has opposing effects depending on the weapon type. These findings advance research on WMD proliferation by introducing a personal biography approach and challenge the conventional view that treats nuclear and CBW proliferation as analogous. Our results also raise policy implications for educational exchange and leader assessment in nonproliferation strategy.
FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🚨NEW PAGE ALERT🚨 After a short summer break, our editorial team are back and excited to launch our LinkedIn page! We will remain active on X and Bluesky, but follow us on LinkedIn too so you don't miss journal announcements in your feed. Join us there: www.linkedin.com/company/fore...

Foreign Policy Analysis | LinkedIn

Foreign Policy Analysis | 5 followers on LinkedIn. A journal of the International Studies Association (ISA). Publishes work explaining foreign policy actions and outcomes.

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FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Hagan (2026) argues that governments in politically fragmented regimes are unlikely to operate coherently during international crises, drawing on the 1914 July Crisis to trace the effects of escalation across five fragmented governments doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Coalitions at the Brink of War: How Fragmented Decision-Making Occurs in International Crises—The July 1914 Case Abstract: Do governments operate coherently during international crises threatening war? This paper argues that this is unlikely in politically fragmented regimes, i.e., parliamentary democracies with coalition cabinets and anocracies with weak, ill-defined centers of authority. Drawing on Oppermann and Brummer (2014), it suggests two pathways by which crises intensify—not diminish—the occurrence of “coalition decision units” composed of competing factions, parties, and/or institutions.. First, because committing to war requires the approval of the full leadership (e.g., cabinet), the “foreign policy executive” (FPE) must gain the support of non-FPE actors opposed to war. Second, when war appears imminent, the FPE itself may split, with some members now advocating diplomatic restraint. Drawing upon the rich literature on the July 1914 crisis, the effects of crisis escalation are traced for the involved powers, all of which entered the crisis with fragmented governments: Austria-Hungary, Britain, France, Germany, and Russia.
FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Minoura (2026) uses a survey experiment to study how donor citizens balance democracy promotion and competition from other donors, finding that US citizens may be willing to compromise on aid conditions but reluctant to outbid competitors. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Drivers of Public Support for Foreign Aid: Democracy Promotion or Competition for Influence? Abstract: How do citizens in traditional donor countries balance competing goals of foreign aid: promoting democracy through conditionality versus maintaining influence amid competition from non-traditional donors? This study examines American public support for aid to Africa as Chinese aid expands. It argues that feedback from aid recipients shapes support for aid and conditionality. Using a survey experiment, the study finds that Americans become less supportive of aid when they learn that African recipients oppose democratic conditions, though this information does not significantly change support for attaching such conditions. When paired with information that Africans prefer Chinese aid without conditions, however, Americans become less supportive of democratic conditions. Yet support for aid does not increase; instead, it declines slightly. These findings suggest that when recipients resist US conditionality and signal alignment with a rival donor, Americans become more willing to compromise on conditions but reluctant to enter a bidding war for influence.
FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Karamik and Arkan (2026) propose a framework for visual narrative analysis in Foreign Policy Analysis, showing how the European Union constructed itself as a political and moral actor in the context of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: EU Foreign Policy through Images: A Visual Narrative Analysis of the War in Ukraine Abstract: Narratives organize how foreign policy becomes intelligible and actionable by defining events, assigning responsibility, and justifying particular courses of action. This article advances the narrative turn by extending it to the visual domain of political storytelling. Despite the ubiquity of images in diplomacy, Foreign Policy Analysis lacks a systematic way to examine how visuals contribute to the narratives through which foreign policy is performed. To address this gap, the article proposes a framework for visual narrative analysis. Integrating narrative theory with visual analysis, the framework shows how recurring visual elements articulate storylines. An analysis of the European Union’s social media on the war in Ukraine demonstrates how visual choices construct the EU’s role as a moral and political actor navigating tensions between diplomacy, solidarity, and security. The article illustrates how Visual Narrative Analysis reveals the ways in which visual representations reinforce, nuance, or unsettle the narrative frameworks underpinning EU foreign policy.
The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃@professormusgrave.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Not to make it All About Me but when you need a cite for how high gas prices affect public support for foreign policy (say because the WH just made this explicit) you can read my new @fpajrnl.bsky.social piece academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...

Pay Any Price? Measuring Americans’ Willingness-to-Pay for Sanctions on Russia and China

Abstract. Economic sanctions appear to be an inexpensive means for wealthy countries to punish or coerce targets. Not all sanctions are, or will be, cheap,

academic.oup.com

FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Kovačević, Rečević, Varda, and Milošević (2026) bridge neoclassical realism with role theory to introduce the concept of 'role hedging', illustrating it through Serbia's engagement with the Berlin Process and the Open Balkan Initiative. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Role Hedging and Regional Cooperation: Serbia’s Discourse on the Berlin Process and the Open Balkan Initiative Abstract: Although the prevalent IR and FPA literature, drawing on neoclassical realism (NCR), focuses on the material aspects of hedging, it largely overlooks identity-driven dynamics, thereby falling short of offering a more wholesome understanding of states’ hedging behaviour. By leveraging an affinity between NCR and role theory in FP research, we argue that identity needs are so deeply intertwined with material considerations that they can themselves constitute primary drivers of hedging moves. The paper introduces the concept of role hedging, capturing how states seek to retain, rather than abandon, their various and often conflicting roles, by managing them either through distribution across different stages (global, regional, subregional), or by strategically shifting between those stages. By focusing on Serbia’s engagement with two regional cooperation frameworks, the Berlin Process and the Open Balkan Initiative, from 2014 to 2024, we illustrate the complexities and tensions in Serbia’s discursive positioning that underpin its precarious hedging repertoire.
FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Zabun (2026) suggests that government type, presidential or parliamentary, affects views of democratic leader resolve during international crises, highlighting the importance of domestic institutional structures in shaping perceptions. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Institutions over Individuals: The Role of Government Type in Demonstrating Resolve during International Crises Abstract: Which government type—presidential or parliamentary—leads adversaries to perceive democratic leaders as more resolved when making militarized threats? While existing literature offers several explanations for demonstrating resolve based on relative capabilities, strategic interests, costly signaling, reputation, and audience costs, I suggest that government type is one of the primary factors affecting how democratic leaders’ resolve is perceived during international crises. My argument is that leaders in presidential systems are more likely to demonstrate resolve than their parliamentary counterparts because presidential systems provide greater autonomy from legislative constraints, more centralized executive authority, and fixed terms with longer tenures, making presidents appear more independent, decisive, and capable of following through on threats. I test this hypothesis in a quantitative analysis using a mixed-effects logistic regression. The findings highlight the importance of domestic institutional structures in shaping the perception of resolve by target states during international crises.
Keith A. Preble, Ph.D.@poliscikeith.bsky.social · 5mo ago

In "Current in U.S. Foreign Policy" with @cnwillis.bsky.social, we discuss our recently published piece in @fpajrnl.bsky.social: cusfp.substack.com/p/do-us-mili...

Do US Military Deployments Reduce Sanctions Busting?

Our recent publication in Foreign Policy Analysis examines this question

cusfp.substack.com

Keith A. Preble, Ph.D.@poliscikeith.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Happy end of academic year 2025/2026! What a great way to start the summer "vacation" with an article publication. Fresh off the presses with @cnwillis.bsky.social, "With Friends Like These: The Impact of US Troop Deployments on Economic Sanctions Busting": doi.org/10.1093/fpa/... /1

The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃@professormusgrave.bsky.social · 5mo ago

In a newly published article in @fpajrnl.bsky.social , I show how rising gas prices affect Americans’ willingness to pay for victory in Ukraine and the security of Taiwan—not just directionally but in specific dollar (and cent) amounts. academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...

Pay Any Price? Measuring Americans’ Willingness-to-Pay for Sanctions on Russia and China

Abstract. Economic sanctions appear to be an inexpensive means for wealthy countries to punish or coerce targets. Not all sanctions are, or will be, cheap,

academic.oup.com

FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Malit Jr (2026) focuses on the paradox of South-South labour migration in an anarchic international system, using extensive field observations of the Philippines' case to show how sender states strengthen coalitions and bargaining power. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: The Paradox of Cooperative Migration Diplomacy in the Global South: Inter-Sending State Cooperation, Multilevel Diplomacy Strategies, and the Philippine State Abstract: How and why do sending states in the Global South cooperate under anarchy? Despite their significance, IR scholarship has largely overlooked the sending states’ strategic logic and use of labor migration as a foreign policy tool. Using the Philippine state as a single case study, I argue that Global South sending states strategically manipulate complex interstate power dynamics to solidify inter-sending state coalitions and enhance bargaining power by employing multilevel cooperative diplomacy—bilateral (learning), multilateral (cooperation), and global (positioning). Methodologically, I employ semi-structured interviews (N = 15) with state and non-state actors, process tracing, secondary sources, and decade-long field observations. Rather than viewing migration diplomacy as zero-sum, the Philippine state adopts a positive-sum, human-rights-centered migration diplomacy, fostering global coalition-building while pursuing material and ideational interests. Overall, this study advances IR debates on foreign policy and South–South labor migration by recentering the neglected inter-Global South–South sending-state migration cooperation in an anarchic international system.
FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Drożdż (2026) examines Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS) Three Seas Initiative (TSI) to show how populist governments institutionalise their agendas by establishing a counter-elite, finding PiS ultimately failed to do so with the TSI. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Foreign Policy Counter-Elite and Durability of Populist Foreign Policy Abstract: This article examines how and why populist governments seek to transform foreign policy institutions through the establishment of a counter-elite. It conceptualizes the counter-elite as the missing link between populist power consolidation and the durability of populist foreign policy, arguing that its level of institutionalization determines whether populist foreign policy changes become entrenched or remain reversible. The framework is applied to Poland under the Law and Justice party (PiS) from 2015 to 2023, using official documents, secondary literature, and anonymized interviews with policymakers and experts. Focusing on PiS’s flagship foreign policy project, the Three Seas Initiative (TSI), the analysis shows that although PiS effectively deinstitutionalized existing foreign policy structures, it failed to build a coherent and self-replicating counter-elite. As a result, foreign policy remained dependent on political incumbency, limiting the institutional reproduction of the populist agenda and leading to the marginalization of the TSI after PiS’s electoral defeat in 2023.
FPA Journal@fpajrnl.bsky.social · 6mo ago

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 Altiparmak and Thies (2026) examine interrole conflicts that emerge when rival great powers pressure states into buffer state roles. Using Turkish FP during and after WWII, they show how states navigate demands in the international system. doi.org/10.1093/fpa/...

Title: Navigating Interrole Conflicts and Maneuvering Sovereignty in the Foreign Policy of Buffer States Abstract: How do buffer states behave? What factors influence their decision-making? This study answers these questions using the framework of role theory to understand the interrole conflicts that are inherent in the buffer state role and that emerge when at least two opposing great powers and alliances exert pressure on them. By employing the strategies of choice, compromise (alternating and mixing roles), avoidance, and both direct and indirect resolution, this study assesses how buffer states (ego) deal with the demands of those they buffer (significant others, alters). The case of Turkey demonstrates how its foreign policy during and in the immediate aftermath of World War II was shaped by its efforts to avoid being constrained to a buffer role. An analysis of Turkey’s evolving foreign policies illustrates how the behavior of buffer states shapes broader geopolitical trends and highlights the importance of viewing these states as dynamic actors within the international system.