Dan Visioni

@danvisioni.bsky.social

Climate scientist studying aerosols, chemistry, radiation, climate & society from Volcanoes 🌋and Climate Intervention. Assistant Professor at Cornell EAS, from 🇮🇹proudly🏳️‍🌈 More at https://dan-visioni.github.io/ and https://www.wcrp-climate.org/ci-overview

Imagine if a group of climate skeptics had created a (bad) tabletop game about climate adaptation, played it with Trump administration people with the predictable outcome of “they made decisions without worrying about the science” and journalists covered it with “SHOCKER: CLIMATE SCIENCE IS USELESS”

Analyzing the impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) requires climate data at finer spatial resolution than global models provide. We’re releasing an open-source, downscaled SAI dataset to support SAI impacts research and to expose uncertainties associated with downscaling itself.

Data to evaluate the regional impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection – CarbonPlan

Releasing downscaled versions of stratospheric aerosol injection simulations, alongside tools to make it accessible.

carbonplan.org

If we trained an LLM on all scientific literature up to point t, with t the time of a massive scientific advancement in the physics of the 19th century, would the LLM eventually get to it?

I've often wondered if many big scientific breakthroughs in physics were not somewhat inevitable, in the sense that scientific understanding was mature enough that *eventually* they were going to be discovered by someone. Planck's law comes to mind. Maxwell's equations too. Hence the question:

Trying not to look at too many comments to preserve my sanity and my working day, but just to say: 1) yes, we published this. I'm very proud of the large amount of work many people put into it! 2) this is our v1. We engaged many external people, and will always be looking for meaningful feedback

James Temple@jtemple.bsky.social · last mo.

There are still big unknowns about solar geoengineering: Reflective has just released a road map of the studies & experiments needed to reduce that uncertainty — and make an "informed decision" about its use:

Editorial staff of a [serious] journal in May: “Hi! We’d like you to write an intro for our special issue. We’d need smtg by August” Me: “Cool, I might. Here’s some qs to help me understand and write something decent” Them: no reply ever even after follow ups Them today: WHERE’S OUR PIECE YOU DOG

But at the time of crossing a threshold into overshoot, you don’t yet know 1) if you can scale CDR, 2) how much, so how high is your peak 3) how fast, so how long is your peak and decline and 4) exactly how dangerous staying for X time above Y temperature would be. Then your SRM problem becomes

Since that doesn’t reduce cumulative carbon, even if you do those but overshoot, you’re left at whatever GWL even at net-zero emissions. Then your decision around long term commitment over net-negative emissions (assuming you can do them) is “is adapting at whatever GWL easier than coming back down”

What I’d answer here is that the 3 things are different from a temporal perspective, and so it’s not a matter of picking one. Rather, based on their temporality, one can better identify the risk trade-offs. Deep methane cuts could be done quickly, they’re great, but “only” reduce the rate of warming

There is no escaping fascism by running away from it in 2026. Post Trump 2 there was a lot of scolding “just move back to EU”. Aside from the practical impossibilities -people move based on lots of reasons- that same black wave is threatening EU, too. AfD winning doesn’t make me giddy, just sad.

The real threat to academic freedom isn’t a Belgian university enforcing its own rules against an avowed white supremacist, but from predators purging their victims from the academy all together. Weird that this doesn’t inspire 600+ signatories in an open letter; I wonder what principle is at work.

Chokely Carmichael🥋@stewartcoles.bsky.social · last mo.

UW-Madison professor engages in multiple sexual relationships with students, disparages another over their sexual orientation and appearance, creates hostile environment, and department leadership covers it all up. And in true “pass the trash” fashion, moves on to ASU once forced to resign.

How dare your fire management plan talk about the fact there should be more and better hydrants. It should just be 70 pages all caps yelling at people they should avoid causing fires. You must be in the pockets of Big Fire.

The problem with the (very true) phrase “Hope is not a plan” is that it’s very easy to then categorize whatever solution one prefers as “concrete, down the Earth things that would obviously happen if only political will materialized” and everything else as “naive nonsense only a fool could believe”

In the year of our lord 2026, if your paper still has “data and code available from the authors upon reasonable request” there should be an automatic poop emoji next to your OrcID icon.

Sorry I can’t sign your well meaning letter “Let people do a lil’ race science, as a treat, because Freedom”. I’m currently busy trying to figure out which common words have been secretly banned by the US government if you want to get federal funding. You know, words like “climate” and “diverse”.

A new study suggests climate models may be overestimating how much carbon forests will absorb in a warming world, raising the possibility that global temperatures could rise even more than current projections anticipate, writes Jessica McKenzie @jessimckenzi.bsky.social.

A blind spot in climate models: Slower tree growth in a warming world

New study finds Earth system models could be overestimating future carbon storage in forests by up to 30 percent.

thebulletin.org

I've thankfully not had to worry about asking for letters of recommendations for faculty positions for three years, and now that I have been asked to write some, I am suddenly reminded of the stupid, ridiculous request of some dept to ask four fucking letter of recommendation at the first stage.

Uncertain - how, and how much, and more importantly, what are you going to do about it? I've been always very dissatisfied with statements that say "X is uncertain" - not to mention "X is *very* uncertain". Yes, but what isn't uncertain? How do we conceptualise the specific uncertainties...