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Rob Arthur

@robarthur.bsky.social

Data journalist, data scientist, freelancer published many places: WSJ, NYT, the Atlantic, the Guardian, etc. Before that: staff at FiveThirtyEight Before that: an evolutionary geneticist.

185 Posts2151 Follower334 Folgt
Saberseminar@saberseminar.bsky.social · 5d ago

Excited about Saberseminar but not able to make it this year? Always wanted to buy a sweatshirt, mug, or hat with the logo? Check out our online store for another way of supporting the event. If there's any particular color/item combo you want, let us know. www.bonfire.com/store/sabers...

Saberseminar | Official Merchandise | Bonfire

Check out Saberseminar on Bonfire and shop official merchandise today! Featuring limited edition custom apparel, printed with care in the USA just for you.

bonfire.com

Rob Arthur@robarthur.bsky.social · 3w ago

Using the DOJ's own data, I found that they're pursuing fewer criminal charges that aren't related to immigration. They're winning the cases they are pursuing less often, and at least in DC, it looks like they are declining to charge some serious offenses. no-little-plans.ghost.io/trumps-doj-i...

Trump’s DOJ Is Pursuing Fewer Non-Immigration Criminal Charges

The Department of Justice is the federal government’s main law enforcement apparatus, and it has shed thousands of personnel since the beginning of Trump’s second term. There are fewer ATF (Alcohol, T...

no-little-plans.ghost.io

Rob Arthur@robarthur.bsky.social · 3w ago

An underappreciated aspect of Trump's immigration crackdown is that the DOJ has a lot less time to spend on what it used to do--prosecuting more serious crimes. We're starting to see the first impacts: a reduction in non-immigration-related charges. no-little-plans.ghost.io/trumps-doj-i...

Trump’s DOJ Is Pursuing Fewer Non-Immigration Criminal Charges

The Department of Justice is the federal government’s main law enforcement apparatus, and it has shed thousands of personnel since the beginning of Trump’s second term. There are fewer ATF (Alcohol, T...

no-little-plans.ghost.io

Carl T. Bergstrom@carlbergstrom.com · last mo.

1. A bit of evolutionary biology. I'm really intrigued by a new perspective piece from Steve Frank that explores connections between how natural selection creates systems that generalize and recent work in machine learning about the surprising capabilities of massively overparameterized systems.

Generalization as the great leap in evolvability: insights from machine learning

Abstract. Natural selection encodes learned information in the genome. Learned solutions may be tuned specifically to past challenges, failing in altered e

academic.oup.com

Ken Morales@kbmorales.bsky.social · last mo.

1/ I looked at 20 years of Supreme Court decisions and found that for the first time, all nine justices decided more cases by secret ballot — aka the “shadow docket” — than it did for cases argued in open court last term. 🧵:

A line chart shows the number of Supreme Court decisions on the merits docket versus the shadow docket from the 2003-04 term to the 2024-25 term. The merits docket decisions trend downward over time, ending at 56 decisions, while the shadow docket decisions rise sharply in the 2018-19 term and surpass the merits docket in the last term at 63 decisions.
Rob Arthur@robarthur.bsky.social · last mo.

this is such great work from @bwd.bsky.social. He was kind enough to share some other emails where Sword et al. discussed my work, which was funny. Major props to Bradford for thinking to use public records law to get at some of this correspondence.

Email from Morgan Sword to Lloyd Smith and others asking about whether they've seen Rob Arthur's article.
Bradford William Davis@bwd.bsky.social · last mo.

In 2019, an MLB exec told Rawlings the league wanted its baseball to perform to what he called a ‘target leaguewide home run rate’ The next year, MLB started making and using two baseballs in at least three consecutive seasons. What could this mean for the 2026 rocket ball? issa new [eyeblack]

Steve Vladeck@stevevladeck.bsky.social · last mo.

This passage from @davidlat.bsky.social perfectly captures the false dichotomy you see so often from the Supreme Court's defenders: The Court is held out as "independent" because it doesn't *always* rule for Trump. That whitewashes (1) how often it *does*; & (2) its bad behavior in non-Trump cases.

Screenshot from David Lat's "Original Jurisdiction" newsletter that reads: Runner-up for Judge of the Week: Chief Justice Roberts. The end of a Term brings with it evaluations of the Supreme Court—and, of course, the Chief Justice as its leader. For critiques of the current conservative Court—and, implicitly, Chief Justice Roberts—see the views of Professors Kate Shaw and Steve Vladeck in this spirited debate in The Times (gift link). I call it a “spirited debate” because of the vigorous pushback that Shaw and Vladeck received from Professor Will Baude (who clerked for the Chief). See also this post at Executive Functions by Professor Jack Goldsmith—no fan of the Trump administration—titled “The Powerful, Resilient, Independent Supreme Court.” Or if Goldsmith is too conservative a commentator for your tastes, check out this staff editorial by The Washington Post (gift link), “The Supreme Court’s not-so-MAGA majority.”
Bradford William Davis@bwd.bsky.social · last mo.

In 2019, an MLB exec told Rawlings the league wanted its baseball to perform to what he called a ‘target leaguewide home run rate’ The next year, MLB started making and using two baseballs in at least three consecutive seasons. What could this mean for the 2026 rocket ball? issa new [eyeblack]

Did you know about MLB's dinger quota?

eyeblack found a league executive's instructions to achieve a 'target leaguewide homeun rate.' Here's what it says about 2026's Juiced Ball 2.0

readeyeblack.com

rahaeli@rahaeli.bsky.social · last mo.

In other "excellent news from religious bodies", the US Presbyterian General Assembly has formally voted to start the process to (correctly) declare white Christian nationalism a theological error incompatible with the teachings of Jesus: pres-outlook.org/2026/07/pcus...

PC(USA) labels White Christian nationalism "Theological Error"

Calling White Christian nationalism incompatible with the teachings of Jesus, commissioners approved a proposed constitutional amendment and a new policy statement opposing the ideology.

pres-outlook.org

kelsie@kelsie.bsky.social · 2mo ago

We had a really mean python at work and I gave him back to his owner and was like “he was trying to kill me” and his owner said “well, he only has so many ways to interact with the world. All he has is a face” and it Moved Me

Alan Nathan@pobguy.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Unfortunately I'll not be attending this year due to a conflict. But I encourage all my baseball followers out there to attend. Saberseminar has always been one of the great forums for learning about the latest baseball research and connecting with other like-minded people. Do not miss it!

Saberseminar@saberseminar.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Excited to announce that general ticket sales for Saberseminar 2026 are open now! We've got a great lineup of speakers that we'll reveal soon, but you can expect more of the fantastic research and discussions we've had in past years. events.ticketleap.com/tickets/sabe...

Saberseminar@saberseminar.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Excited to announce that general ticket sales for Saberseminar 2026 are open now! We've got a great lineup of speakers that we'll reveal soon, but you can expect more of the fantastic research and discussions we've had in past years. events.ticketleap.com/tickets/sabe...

Saberseminar 2026 - At Illinois Tech

Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball is the premier baseball analytics event. We get front office insiders, scientists, scouts, and sabermetricians into the same room and have them talk...

events.ticketleap.com

Rob Arthur@robarthur.bsky.social · 3mo ago

This is free to read, but if you enjoy reading it, you may also want to consider subscribing. Got some cool stuff coming up, some baseball, some more movies, some politics, and more.

Rob Arthur@robarthur.bsky.social · 3mo ago

In my last post, I looked at how Hollywood discriminates severely and unreasonably against older actresses, in particular. In this post, I look at how actresses fight back: they look much younger than their chronological age. no-little-plans.ghost.io/for-hollywoo...

Rob Arthur@robarthur.bsky.social · 3mo ago

In my last post, I looked at how Hollywood discriminates severely and unreasonably against older actresses, in particular. In this post, I look at how actresses fight back: they look much younger than their chronological age. no-little-plans.ghost.io/for-hollywoo...

For Hollywood Actresses, Looking Younger Pays Off

Every year they can shave from their appearance equates to millions of dollars in career earnings. I recently wrote about the blatant bias against aging female stars in Hollywood. I found that Hollyw...

no-little-plans.ghost.io

The New York Times@nytimes.com · 4mo ago

The acting head of the CDC has canceled the publication of a study that found that the Covid vaccine sharply cut the odds of hospitalizations and emergency visits last winter, a Health Department spokesman said.

C.D.C. Cancels Publication of Study Showing Benefits of Covid Vaccines

The report found that the shots cut the likelihood of hospitalizations, but the agency’s acting head said it gave an inaccurate picture of the vaccines’ effectiveness.

nyti.ms

Rob Arthur@robarthur.bsky.social · 4mo ago

a little while back, I started a blog, except I guess blogs are called newsletters now. (Apparently I'm sufficiently old to have reached the stage of "that thing I called X is now called Y and I'm mad about it.")

Saberseminar@saberseminar.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Reminder: abstract submissions are open for Saberseminar 2026. We always aim for a mix of talks on a wide variety of subjects, from established professionals to hobbyists to students looking to get a foot in the door. Submit your abstract ASAP! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Saberseminar Abstract Submission Form

Thank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2026. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or...

docs.google.com