Equal Weight S&P 500 has outperformed Cap Weight by 4.2% through 2/7. That's the highest spread going back to 1992. 34 years. Incredible.
Matt Cerminaro
@mattcerminaro.bsky.social
Posts ≠ Financial Advice ➢ Opinions expressed are solely my own. chartkidmatt.com/subscribe
If I had one visual to explain what is happening in markets, it is this one. Mag7 breaking down relative to S&P 500. Small Caps breaking out relative to S&P 500. Could it be this simple?
Market internals currently signal "risk-on" - 79% of Discretionary Sector Above 200D - Only 35% Of Staples Sector Above 200D The "spread" between the two is plotted below. 44% more Discretionary stocks above 200D. "Risk-on" stocks rising while "risk-off" falling = bullish.
Total Returns Over Past Year: S&P Pure Value: +22% S&P Pure Growth: +16% Over 600 bps of outperformance in value stocks. Narrow market? This suggests otherwise. 👇
Wall Street's strategists are too cautious on the year ahead's stock market returns 70% of the time - @mattcerminaro.bsky.social chartkidmatt.com/p/25-years-o...
"The black dots show where each sector’s forward P/E stood at the S&P 500’s 10/29 short-term peak. The grey dots show where they stood at the 11/20 short-term trough. Valuation compression in 8 of 10 sectors shown, but most notably in Tech." @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
Google's forward PE looks like a meme stock. Nearly doubled off the low. 👇
Five years ago in November of 2020, Ed @yardeniresearch.bsky.social coined the phrase “Roaring 2020’s" as his forecast for the decade. Good call. Ed stopped by tonight to lay out his case for S&P 500 10,000 by year-end. Real people on The Street listen to Ed. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCki...
Roaring 2020’s Stock Market Rolls On Into ‘26 | WAYT?
YouTube video by The Compound
youtube.com
Google is now more expensive than Nvidia. Look at the spread between their Forward P/E ratios. Wow. 👇
Google is now more expensive than Nvidia. Look at the spread between their Forward P/E ratios. Wow. 👇
for daily market insights from working, registered professionals, follow the whole Ritholtz Starter Pack here. We specialize in sane, reasonable investment commentary. May we meet you? bsky.app/start/did:pl...
We haven’t had a meaningful bear market in nearly 20 years. You might think “surely, this must end soon.” Historically, you would be wrong about the *must* part. The length of a bull market doesn’t have to obey your feelings or mine. Chart @mattcerminaro.bsky.social via @bencarlson007.bsky.social
🆓 Sunday links: how gambling became frictionless, falling homicide rates, and the best books of 2025. abnormalreturns.com/2025/11/23/s... image: awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/do-w...
Sunday links: frictionless gambling
November 23, 2025
abnormalreturns.com
At what point do 7%+ mortgage rates and a lack of housing activity become a big problem for the economy? awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/is-t...
We are seeing capitulatory, bear market low type oversold readings in the middle of a strong bull market. Look at this metric: - % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5% - % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9% 👇
Can't lie we went crazy on the show tonight. Now live, let us know what you think www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_...
Is Nvidia Under Siege in 2025? | WAYT?
YouTube video by The Compound
youtube.com
A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️ www.tker.co/p/valuations...
A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️
Plus a charted review of the macro crosscurrents 🔀
tker.co
Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and Head of the Global Allocation Team, overseeing roughly $2.4T in assets. Just don’t call him a Bond King. Brand new epic edition of The Compound and Friends. We love you, Merry Christmas 🎄 podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/is...
Is Rick Rieder a Bond King?
On episode 169 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Rick Rieder , Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income and …
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com
🐂The avg bull market has 8 5% pullbacks. 👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run. Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends. 👇
It's Forecast SZN on Wall Street and every firm has their S&P 500 target for 2025. Strategists are expecting a gain of somewhere between 7% and 17%. But allow me to blow your mind: The average gain for stocks in an up year over the last hundred years is actually +21%! @bencarlson007.bsky.social
This one is interesting. - Blue bars are sector returns YTD - Red dots are avg return of stock within sector - Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector. The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply. 👇
The 4 types of investment mistakes: 1. Annoying mistakes (investing in underperforming funds) 2. Self-inflicted mistakes (high fees, over-trading, etc) 3. Painful mistakes (sell at the bottom of a bear market) 4. Endgame mistakes (fraud, losing it all) awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
The 4 Types of Investment Mistakes - A Wealth of Common Sense
The hierarchy of investment mistakes.
awealthofcommonsense.com
Five charts you need to see for 2025 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990 But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily. Big gains happen more often than you think.
The NASDAQ is -0.50% today. But the internals paint a rosier picture. - 55% of stocks are advancing in the index. Not as "risk off" within. 👇
Why did BlackRock spend $12 billion to acquire a private equity firm last week? I can explain it in a single chart. If you were the CEO of a large asset management firm, you would do the same thing. via Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
NEW🚨: Ben with Benefits by @bencarlson007.bsky.social Highly recommend giving this a listen 🎧 👇 youtu.be/oqzryxsLp64?...
Advisors Face an $80 Trillion Tidal Wave as 10,000 Clients Retire Every Day
YouTube video by The Unlock
youtu.be
Peter Boockvar on The Compound and Friends today! Contrarian investing ideas from one of my favorite people on Wall Street podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...
Everybody tells us the "market is narrow" That's just not true. I brought the data. In 2H 2024: - The S&P 500 is +11.8% - But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7% So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%. Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this. 👇
