Ed Gareth Poole 🏴🏳️🌈
@edgarethpoole.bsky.social
Darllenydd, Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru, Prifysgol Caerdydd Reader, Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University en - cy - nl
🚨BLOG NEWYDD gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllidol Cymru🚨 Y Gyllideb Atodol Gyntaf: beth mae'n ei olygu a'r y opsiynau sydd o'n blaenau 🚨NEW BLOG by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team🚨 The First Supplementary Budget: what it means and the options ahead blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
The First Supplementary Budget: what it means and the options ahead
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Community policing looks a bit different when the World Cup is in town! Our officers celebrated alongside fans, both international and local, during Day 1 of FIFA Fan Fest on City Hall Plaza!
🚨NEW BLOG🚨 With polls opening in less than 24 hours, I thought it would be good to look over the kind of information environment voters would be operating in in Wales! 🏴 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Uncertainty and Asymmetry: Electoral Understanding in the 2026 Senedd Election
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Final @yougov.co.uk ITV Wales @walesgovernance.bsky.social MRP poll of the Senedd campaign (changes since April) Plaid 33% (+4) Reform 29% (-) Labour 12% (-1) Cons 9% (+1) Greens 8% (-2) Libdems 6% (-) Others 3% (-1) Write up here: www.itv.com/news/wales/2... #senedd26 #senedd #devolution
The question is no longer simply ‘which candidate can beat the one I least want?’ It becomes: ‘where are votes most likely to convert into seats?✍️’ Dr Jac Larner & Professor Laura McAllister, Wales Governance Centre buff.ly/Jb6HSm1
The pressures of long-term incumbency, internal party strains and shifting political dynamics have converged to challenge Welsh Labour’s claim to govern ✍️Nye Davies, Cardiff University wp.me/p8Mk4U-1jIE
The current system is a more proportional voting system, but given the structure of party support in Wales and the specific details of the operation of the new electoral system, the incentives for tactical voting are still very much in place ✍️ Richard Wyn Jones
Why tactical voting still matters: Welsh polling and the voting system
Richard Wyn Jones The prospect of change and, specifically, the end of Labour hegemony has already led to an unprecedented amount of polling ahead of the Senedd election. We can expect more between no...
wp.me
NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇
Mae’r fideo o’n sesiwn briffio cyn-etholiad #Senedd26 nawr ar gael i wylio 👇 The video of our pre-election briefing with the latest polling and data for the Welsh Parliament election, presented by @edgarethpoole.bsky.social & @richardwynjones.bsky.social, is now online 👇 youtu.be/A-p06RuVH40?...
Senedd Election 2026: Pre-Election Briefing / Etholiad y Senedd 2026: Dadansoddiad Cyn-Etholiad
YouTube video by School of Law and Politics
youtu.be
WARNING - contains stealth advertising! Available at all good bookshops, etc. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
The Guardian view on Welsh language learning: cultural shifts can deliver a bright future for Cymraeg | Editorial
Editorial: As Plaid Cymru leads in polls ahead of Senedd elections in May, grassroots enthusiasm for one of its historic causes is growing
theguardian.com
UCU NEC election results were published a few weeks ago. Some people have asked what this means for the factional make-up of the Higher Education Committee (HEC), so I've put together this short blog breaking down the results. open.substack.com/pub/dyfrigjo...
New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social · 7mo ago“Plaid Cymru remain in the strongest position - Reform faces far greater constraints, yet there should be no mistake: winning a third of seats would represent a remarkable result.” - @jaclarner.bsky.social #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
For those interested in devolution in the UK and Welsh politics, this is an interesting analysis in @admincourtblog.bsky.social on the Divisional Court's judgement in the Greyhound Ban case vs Welsh Ministers #devolution #greyhoundracingban #Senedd
The dog that didn’t bark: the Separation of Powers in Wales
The Divisional Court (Lewis LJ, Chamberlain J) sitting in Cardiff has held that recognising a common law duty on Welsh ministers to consult before introducing legislation in the Senedd would infrin…
administrativecourtblog.wordpress.com
Plaid open 14 point lead over Reform UK in our January 2026 Senedd voting intention Plaid Cymru: 37% (+7 from 4-10 Sep 2025) Reform UK: 23% (-6) Green: 13% (+7) Conservative: 10% (-1) Labour: 10% (-4) Lib Dem: 5% (-1) Other: 2% (-2) yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Our latest pod is in the feeds and on YouTube. In the first of our explainer pods, @lauramcallister30.bsky.social is joined by @edgarethpoole.bsky.social of @walesgovernance.bsky.social as we grapple with the national finances, how we have the system we do and how it could be better. #Senedd26
Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Voting Intention: PLC: 30% (+3) RFM: 29% (=) LAB: 12% (-6) CON: 12% (+1) GRN: 9% (+2) LDM: 7% (=) Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 16 Dec - 4 Jan. Changes w/ 5-16 Jun 2025.
‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection
‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection
It was assumed that Reform would sweep all before it – but locals rejected the party’s campaign of ‘lies and hate’
theguardian.com
Caerffili - featuring our very own @jaclarner.bsky.social! Blwyddyn newydd dda! www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection
It was assumed that Reform would sweep all before it – but locals rejected the party’s campaign of ‘lies and hate’
theguardian.com
“Caerphilly isn’t some post-industrial wasteland passively absorbing whatever political winds blow from across the border – it has its own political traditions” - Dr @jaclarner.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection
It was assumed that Reform would sweep all before it – but locals rejected the party’s campaign of ‘lies and hate’
theguardian.com
As if by the magic of Disney, those live-action bean counters at @walesgovernance.bsky.social have produced their analysis of yesterday's UK Govt budget and its implications for Wales #budget2025 #devolution #senedd
Frozen 2: Tax Freezes, the 2-Child Limit (and what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales)
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
🚨 NEW: 'FROZEN 2': 🧊 Here's the Wales Fiscal Analysis team's first breakdown on what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales 🚨NEWYDD: Beth mae Cyllideb y Hydref 2025 yn ei olygu i Gymru? Dyma ddadansoddiad cyntaf o'r newidiadau sydd ar y ffordd blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Frozen 2: Tax Freezes, the 2-Child Limit (and what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales)
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
NEWYDD - Adroddiad gan @robdjones.bsky.social yn dadansoddi'r data diweddaraf ar garchardai a charchariad yng Nghymru 👇 NEW - Report from Dr Robert Jones analyses the latest data on prisons and imprisonment in Wales 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...
Women in Wales are being jailed more often
Research has been carried out by a team at Cardiff University
walesonline.co.uk
New blog Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴 2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
The 2024 UK General Election in Wales
That Labour emerged victorious from the 2024 UK General Election in Wales must count among the least surprising political outcomes imaginable. It has, afte
academic.oup.com
Interesting read from @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @lauramcallister30.bsky.social on the Caerphilly by-election, the intergovernmental & intra-party fault lines and pressures within Labour, and the road to next Spring’s Senedd election #senedd #devolution
Laura McAllister@lauramcallister30.bsky.social · 12mo agoMy take on the Caerffili by-election and the political state of play six months from the Senedd election: www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-op...
Coverage in @financialtimes.com of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, featuring analysis from the Enron of Welsh political statistics, and friend of the gnomes of Zurich, @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @jaclarner.bsky.social #senedd #devolution
Labour braces for defeat in Caerphilly by-election
Governing party faces potential loss of Senedd control amid Reform and Plaid Cymru surge in Welsh heartlands
on.ft.com
Those bean counters/abacus fetishists at @walesgovernance.bsky.social have done it again - a super speedy assessment of yesterday’s initial/provisional/potential/theoretical/that would be an economical matter/outline draft Welsh Govt budget #senedd #devolution
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social · 12mo agoNEWYDD: Dadansoddi Cyllideb Ddrafft Amlinellol Llywodraeth Cymru 2026-27 gan tîm ymchwil Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru👇 NEW: Analysing the 2026-27 Welsh Government Outline Draft Budget by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
NEWYDD: Dadansoddi Cyllideb Ddrafft Amlinellol Llywodraeth Cymru 2026-27 gan tîm ymchwil Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru👇 NEW: Analysing the 2026-27 Welsh Government Outline Draft Budget by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
‘Neutral’ or ‘Neutered’? Analysing the 2026-27 Welsh Government Outline Draft Budget
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru
