Jac Larner
@jaclarner.bsky.social
Politics Lecturer Cardiff University & Fellow Edinburgh University. Political Psychology 🧠 & Public Opinion. https://jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/
Two(!) permanent lectureships coming up at Cardiff: One in political behaviour/opinion cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/52... One in British politics (very loosely defined) cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/53... Feel free to get in touch and I'll be happy to answer any questions I can
cardiffuniweb.eploy.net
The @britishacademy.bsky.social deserves praise for its work in this area, but the bottom line is that the 20th century academic career is going the way of the defined benefit pension: once past promises have been honoured, no new promises will be made.
🚨New research for the Bevan Foundation on economic (in)security in Wales 🏴 Full report, based on framework of @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al with @jrf-uk.bsky.social, here in English: tinyurl.com/2prrsdpj & Cymraeg: tinyurl.com/mwavt63a Thread below on a couple of things that stood out:
This is just false, isn't it? Avg levels of trust in Holyrood (mean 4.46 on a 0–10 scale) are higher than levels of trust in W'minster (3.06), so Dundee would have to be way out of line w/ the nat'l picture to trust Holyrood as much as W'minster www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
The Meh election? Campaign dynamics in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election - UK Election Analysis
Whilst the 2026 Scottish Parliament election produced a colourful, rainbow parliament, it came out of what was largely characterised as a rather bland campaign.
electionanalysis.uk
Chris McCall@dennynews.bsky.social · last mo.Andy Burnham says he will offer "new opportunities to extend devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by taking power deeper down". He adds: "The people of Dundee and Bangor feel just as distant from Holyrood and the Senedd as they do from Westminster".
Today's young republicans are tomorrow's loyal subjects — support for monarchy rises steadily with age across all generations 👑 Started as office joke but ended with valuable finding about legitimacy of unaccountable institutions. Andrew's latest disgrace not in data, but plenty of earlier ones are
Joe Phillips@polpsychjoe.bsky.social · last mo.New publication out and open access at @poqjournal.bsky.social with the legendary @jaclarner.bsky.social! How does support for the UK monarchy change over the lifespan or differ between cohorts? 🧵 (1/x) doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
open.substack.com/pub/willhayw... A long read from me on what the hell just happened to Welsh Labour Do please share with anyone who might be interested! Diolch @willhaycardiff.bsky.social and to @jaclarner.bsky.social and Owain Cynfab for the graphics!
Why Welsh Labour lost
Breaking down why Wales' governing party collapsed so dramatically
open.substack.com
Come join us next Tuesday for new analysis on how Wales has changed in the 10 years since the Eu Referendum 👇
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social · 2mo ago🎙️DIGWYDDIAD | EVENT - 23/06/2026 🏴🇬🇧🇪🇺 Degawd ers Refferendwm am adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd | A Decade on from the EU Referendum Ymunwch â ni i wythnos nesaf i glywed ein hymchwil diweddaraf ar #Cymru ôl-Brecsit | Join us to hear our research on post-Brexit #Wales. www.eventbrite.com/e/1991988577...
We are pleased to share that the report from our 2026 Local Elections event is now available The report brings together key insights and discussion points from the event, focusing on the evolving dynamics of local elections and their broader implications See the report here: poal.co.uk/events/
Ymunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election. Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...
The Senedd Election 2026: What Happened, and Why? - Post Election Briefing
Etholiad y Senedd 2026: Beth ddigwyddodd, a Pham? - Dadansoddiad Ôl-Etholiad gan yr Athro Richard Wyn Jones a Dr Jac Larner
eventbrite.com
Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
Great work from James on how Wales’ new electoral system performed (Even if he has cut off Monmouthshire….)
James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 3mo ago🏴 New Blog 🏴 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇
Fascinating stuff. Only thing I'd add is that ability of list to compensate for disproportionality in const depends on limited split ticket voting. Prelim SES data suggest *split tickets at an all time high* this election, thus further weakening Lab and Con chances esp Quebec proposed a model of ...
Simon Hix@simonhix.bsky.social · 3mo agoOn 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment: Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system Same day, same political context, different outcomes. Which version of PR would be better for Westminster? 🧵
Labour down 30 points in two constituencies declared so far @itvcymruwales.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk MRP looking pretty good at the moment across board on vote shares
Record turnout in Wales with Senedd & Westminster turnout converging. Unthinkable a few years ago but still nearly half of registered voters staying home Competitiveness always helps, as well as the growing understanding that decisions Welsh Government takes has an impact on day-to-day lives
Some great stuff here from our PhD student @willdv2002.bsky.social what voters do and don’t know about voting in Senedd 2026 election
Will 🏴🏳️🌈@willdv2002.bsky.social · 3mo ago🚨NEW BLOG🚨 With polls opening in less than 24 hours, I thought it would be good to look over the kind of information environment voters would be operating in in Wales! 🏴 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Notable that much of the variation in Welsh polling has disappeared in the final days of the campaign. The standard deviation in Plaid Cymru estimates across firms fell from 4.3 to 1.8 percentage points since autumn; for Labour, from 5.6 to 2.3 Most convergence happening in last 10 days (1/2)
Dr Adam Evans@a-b-evans.bsky.social · 3mo agoFinal @yougov.co.uk ITV Wales @walesgovernance.bsky.social MRP poll of the Senedd campaign (changes since April) Plaid 33% (+4) Reform 29% (-) Labour 12% (-1) Cons 9% (+1) Greens 8% (-2) Libdems 6% (-) Others 3% (-1) Write up here: www.itv.com/news/wales/2... #senedd26 #senedd #devolution
The headline findings are worth your time, but Dan’s contribution here is a thoughtful history of how national identity has (and has not) been measured in British surveys over time
Daniel Wincott@danielwincott.bsky.social · 3mo agoSome wider thoughts on this research. A (not so) wee 🧵. The UK experienced a series of high stakes events between 2014 and 2020. Thanks to @britishelectionstudy.com for asking a pre and post referendum NatID question. Without panel data on this q, we could never have known about this change. 1/n
Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇
James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 3mo ago🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
In just 2,000 words, @richardhywelking.bsky.social has produced a masterful guide through the last 27 years of Labour in Wales. Essential reading before next Thursday when the Labour century may come to an end www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
Richard King · Labour in Wales
lrb.co.uk
🏴 New Blog 🏴 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇
YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party PC: 43 (+19 from 2021*) Ref: 30 (+30) Lab: 12 (-32) Grn: 10 (+10) Con: 1 (-25) LD: 0 (-2) *notional results had the last election been conducted on the new system based on data from Dr Jac Larner
New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social · 4mo ago“Plaid Cymru remain in the strongest position - Reform faces far greater constraints, yet there should be no mistake: winning a third of seats would represent a remarkable result.” - @jaclarner.bsky.social #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
This loss of talent will have long term consequences for our national research base. Government and funders should do something about it.
Jack Bailey@jack-bailey.co.uk · 5mo agoI know so many immensely talented people who are just not going to get jobs in academia. The number of post-docs and job openings is so much lower than just a few years ago. The conditions are brutal.
Fantastic stuff, as ever, from Nye on the decline of two cornerstones of Welsh identity over the last century: Rugby and the Labour Party
Nye Davies@nyedavies.bsky.social · 6mo agoMy thoughts for @nation.cymru on the crises facing the WRU and Welsh Labour nation.cymru/opinion/rugb...
Ahead of #Senedd26 @jaclarner.bsky.social joined the BBC's Chris Mason in #Pontypridd to discuss the big shifts in Welsh politics that suggest a century of electoral dominance by the Labour Party is being challenged by Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, who are battling to top the polls in #Wales.
From November 2025 - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB - @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social #OpenAccess
For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...
GitHub - jaclarner/Cardiff-YouGov_Dec25: Repository for simple cross tabs and raw data (.csv) for Cardiff University/YouGov December 2025 Data
Repository for simple cross tabs and raw data (.csv) for Cardiff University/YouGov December 2025 Data - jaclarner/Cardiff-YouGov_Dec25
github.com
Will Hayward - Wales Journo@willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 8mo agoRight let's breakdown this new poll for Wales because there is a lot going on below the headline figures. [Thread]
