💥Online first: "Communicating a common front: mainstream party rhetoric and affective polarisation towards the radical right" by @markuskollberg.bsky.social & @ivobantel.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/0140...
Ivo Bantel
@ivobantel.bsky.social
Head of Research & Data @POLITICOEurope ・polarization, extremism, computational social science, text-as-data・PhD from University of Zurich, previously @Harvard Gov't, @Oxford DPIR & @University of Bremen (he/him)
Very happy to see our new paper out in WEP. We document that rhetorically countering the Radical Right requires mainstream parties to form a common front to be effective. Full paper (open access): www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.... Highlights in the thread below.
Markus Kollberg@markuskollberg.bsky.social · last yr.Returning from vacation and looking for a late summer read? @ivobantel.bsky.social and I got you covered! In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Important finding for Social Democratic parties. Danish Social Democrats – often used as an example why Social Democratic parties should adopt anti-immigrant positions for electoral success! – could have won policy support for a pro-immigrant platform if their messaging were framed in moral terms.
Kristina Bakkær Simonsen@kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social · last yr.Now in an issue @psrm.bsky.social: I show that the 🇩🇰 Social Democrats could have won policy support for a pro-immigrant platform if their messaging were framed in moral terms. Findings provide a central corrective to the popular notion that the Social Democrats were destined to go anti-immigrant 👇🏻
New paper by Markus Kollberg in @psrm.bsky.social. Mainstream populism doesn't work (i.e. doesn't influence voter evaluations of parties)! Might also be relevant for some current political actors actors.
Markus Kollberg@markuskollberg.bsky.social · 2y agoDoes Mainstream Populism Work❓ I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗ Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:
Some thoughts and pointers on the upcoming German elections on Sunday. Nearly all polling institutes have released final polls in the last days that show a very similar picture. It is nearly certain that the CDU/CSU will come out on top and Friedrich Merz is going to be the next Chancellor. 1/
🧵1/X As #Trump takes office today, @ivobantel.bsky.social and I comment for the @the-independent.com how Trump has radicalised and is a threat to #climate action and #democracy - why it's in the interest of other governments to collaborate and call his bluffs. www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump...
Trump’s second term puts democracy and climate in peril
As Trump’s second term as US president looms, the world braces for a radical shift in democratic norms and climate action. But there is an urgent need for resistance, write climate expert Andreas Sieb...
independent.co.uk
New study by @nickbichay.bsky.social Radical-Right parties participating in elections disenchant and demobilize voters, endangering (not "correcting") democracy! RR participation in elections is associated with lower(!) turnout. But don't RR parties bring non-voters to the ballots? Not really.
Europe is at a juncture where political resistance to decarbonisation is mounting and where budgetary means to buy off consent are becoming scarce, at both EU and national levels. To get the Green Deal done, a new investment strategy is needed www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
An investment strategy to keep the European Green Deal on track
In this Policy Brief, we assess the investment needed to achieve the 2030 climate goal and climate neutrality by 2050
bruegel.org
A good explainer of the surprising first round of Romanian Presidential Elections (1st round) and, importantly, the implications.
Grigore Pop-Eleches@grigopop.bsky.social · 2y agoWriting about the elections in #Romania is like aiming at a moving target. Here's my take (as of yesterday) in @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/calin-g...
Yes, X demotes link posts; been that way for a while www.mediaite.com/news/elon-mu... Huge pain for news orgs. Source told me NYT's X traffic plunged 50% in 1 month www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2... X also delays sites Elon dislikes, as we first reported www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
Elon Musk Admits X is Throttling Links — Effectively Limiting People From Reading News
Musk confirmed that posts containing links are deprioritized, renewing criticism that the platform is restricting access to external sources of information.
mediaite.com
The victory march of democracy has ended What can we as researchers do? In the Scandinavian countries, a particular tool is available: Democracy & Power Studies. The Danish government appointed me as director of such a study. We started our work this year. A 🧵 on what we do & how we do it 1/8
A mapping of how Bluesky is becoming the new Scientific Twitter mikeyoungacademy.dk/bluesky-is-e...
Bluesky is emerging as the new platform for science - Mike Young Academy
Scientific Twitter is about to find its true successor. And it is not X. This, our latest release, shows that the Bluesky network of scientists is growing — and growing.
mikeyoungacademy.dk
Protests against the far-right reduce far-right voting through media exposure (here: study in France). A similar effect was likely the reason why AfD polled lower during/after large German anti-AfD protests.
Omar Wasow@owasow.bsky.social · 2y agoNew study looks at protests against far right in 2002 French elections. Finds “larger protests reduced number of votes for Le Pen and abstention, while increasing number of votes for the incumbent president, Chirac.” Also finds “effect worked through media exposure.” nicolas-lagios.com/files/fn.pdf
FDP plante Bruch der Ampel unter der Bezeichnung der Operation für die Befreiung der Normandie von Nazi-Deutschland! Verantwortungsloses Verhalten kann zusätzlich auch noch geschichtsvergessen und geschmacklos par excellence sein. #DDayGate
Christian Endt@cendt.de · 2y agoDie FDP-Spitze hat den Bruch der Ampel über Wochen geplant. Krasse Recherche von @bertpsch.bsky.social www.zeit.de/politik/deut...
Das Gender Pay Gap beträgt in diesem Jahr unverändert 18%. Der Gender Pay-Gap ist auch im europäischen Vergleich sehr hoch und reflektiert Arbeitsmarktstrukturen, die Frauen systematisch benachteiligt. www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pr...
High-ranking AfD politicians (including the personal assistant to Alice Weidel, one of the AfD's chairs) met with neo-Nazis and potential funders in November, as @correctiv.org uncovers. They fund-raised for a big plan: expelling "not assimilated" German citizens and weakening democracy. 1/
Geheimplan gegen Deutschland
Hochrangige AfD-Politiker, Neonazis und finanzstarke Unternehmer planten die Vertreibung von Millionen von Menschen aus Deutschland.
correctiv.org
📊 New polling analysis by the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division for the 2024 European Parliament election 🗓 5 months ahead of the EP election Nisa Khan, Rodrigo Gutierrez & I crunched the data and present the latest polling trends. #EuropeanPolitics #EU2024 1/
New to Bluesky 😉 Trying to connect with people who study tropical / cold-water corals 🪸, climate change, ocean acidification, anthropogenic impacts on the marine environment... 🌊 🐋🐬🦈🦭🐟🦀🦑🐙🪼🦞🐚
Warum teilen Menschen Verschwörungserzählungen? Eine großartige Übersicht über einige der Gründe von Pia Lamberty.
Pia Lamberty@pialamberty.bsky.social · 3y agoAuf Social Media sieht man eine Vielzahl von Verschwörungserzählungen, die von unterschiedlichen gesellschaftlichen Milieus geteilt werden. Es gibt verschiedene Gründe, warum Menschen solche Inhalte verbreiten. 🧵
Important bluesky update - posts can now be publicly viewed (i.e. without an account), and thus used as a source, e.g. for journalists. Another reason not to cite X. 😉
A New Look for Bluesky: The Social Butterfly
A new look for Bluesky — the social butterfly — and a public web interface.
blueskyweb.xyz
The Dutch elections have implications beyond the Netherlands – but not as you might expect! The PVV's result provides a stark warning sign, showing the results of the centre-right legitimising and thereby normalising anti-pluralist Radical Right parties!
Daniel Ziblatt@dziblatt.bsky.social · 3y agoA warning for the center right: As @sldelange.bsky.social puts it, "Before the election, Yeşilgöz [center right] “legitimized Wilders by making immigration a key issue in the campaign,” and opening the door to a coalition with him That’s come back to bite the party."
Are Millennials worse off than Baby Boomers? This AJS piece argues: that question & focus on 'average' cohort experiences is misleading or meaningless. The real story is "rising inequality within cohorts: middle class Millennials are doing better, working class Millennials often doing worse."
Rob Gruijters@robgruijters.bsky.social · 3y agoNew in AJS! @zjvanwinkle.bsky.social, Anette Fasang & I investigate a hotly debated question: are Millennials worse off than their parents’ generation, the Baby Boomers? We argue that this is a misleading question. Why? See ⬇️ or read www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
New report by @vollcornhirsch.bsky.social, Rodrigo Ignacio Gutierrez and me is out. 💡 We look at the seat projection for the 2024 EP elections according to POLITICO's Poll of Polls (key takeaways below). 🗳️ We also analyze commitment to (political) pluralism – which, concerningly, is declining. 1/
Cornelius Hirsch@vollcornhirsch.online · 3y agoToday, with 7 months to go until the 2024 European Parliament election, the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division published the new monthly seat projection report for the June election. Here are my main takeaways: 🧵
New report by @vollcornhirsch.bsky.social, Rodrigo Ignacio Gutierrez and me is out. 💡 We look at the seat projection for the 2024 EP elections according to POLITICO's Poll of Polls (key takeaways below). 🗳️ We also analyze commitment to (political) pluralism – which, concerningly, is declining. 1/
Cornelius Hirsch@vollcornhirsch.online · 3y agoToday, with 7 months to go until the 2024 European Parliament election, the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division published the new monthly seat projection report for the June election. Here are my main takeaways: 🧵
Hello bluesky world (again)! X and I are officially breaking up. Moving my posts here (check out this brilliant tool: tinyurl.com/xtobsky) requires a new account to avoid followers' timelines being spammed (@ivoba.bsky.social will be inactive). So here we go.
My partner and his family are from Maine, he works closely w/ organizations based in Portland. Last night we both got on X for the first time in months hoping that there might be some chance it could still work as a realtime news source when we didn’t see much here. The answer, absolutely not.
New book by @saengler.bsky.social on Centrist anti-establishment parties (think IT's M5S or CZ's ANO). It highlights these parties' immense success, survival strategies and concludes that, in the long run, ideology remains key! Looks amazing, looking forward to a fascinating read!
IIvo Bantel (old)@ivoba.bsky.social · 3y ago
New book by @saengler.bsky.social on Centrist anti-establishment parties (think IT's M5S or CZ's ANO). It highlights these parties' immense success, survival strategies and concludes that, in the long run, ideology remains key! Looks amazing, looking forward to a fascinating read!