NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: So much of the joint United States-Japanese currency intervention last Friday makes sense, even considering Bessent's silly theatrics. Yet some strange choices "under the hood" portend danger for the global financial system www.crisesnotes.com/a-hidden-geo...

A Hidden Geopolitical Threat to the Global Financial System? Oddities in the U.S.-Japanese Yen Intervention

This is a Premium Piece of Notes on the Crises. If Notes on the Crises gets enough paid subscriptions or tips associated with this piece, it will be unlocked. Given that I’ve committed to ma...

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Or, to put it in a way that Mark might understand: Don’t. Post. Lies. And. Bullshit. On. Bluesky.

Nathan Tankus@nathantankus.bsky.social · 3h ago

Lol @mcopelov.bsky.social blocked me over these replies. Really sad and pathetic. Since he blocked me I'll stop using kid gloves: Mark is the most annoying kind of Liberal Zionist. This type never acknowledges their own ideology or defends it, they just cast aspersions about everyone else.

Lol @mcopelov.bsky.social blocked me over these replies. Really sad and pathetic. Since he blocked me I'll stop using kid gloves: Mark is the most annoying kind of Liberal Zionist. This type never acknowledges their own ideology or defends it, they just cast aspersions about everyone else.

Nathan Tankus@nathantankus.bsky.social · 3h ago

Sure. Let me know if you're ever able to coherently defend your position on this issue and articulate how you differ from Yglesias et al. on it. You certainly haven't yet!

and like, frankly, I haven't seen a single sign you have good politics on Israel's genocide. Searching your posts, I can't even find an example of you calling it a genocide. All I see are @mattyglesias.bsky.social style posts whataboutisming about other genocides.

If you're not able to straightforwardly state that all Jewish Israeli political leadership, from the far right through Netanyahu to the so-called "opposition" support genocide and the permanent subjugation of Palestinians, why would I or anyone else treat you as a good faith and honest ally on this?

In any other country, for example, you criticize the equivalent of Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz for facilitating the slide to the far right. And that's without active participation in genocide! Yet on this issue, you only talk about "AIPAC/Bibi". Why is that?

Trump's Razor: If there are multiple possible explanations for his or his administration's actions, the stupidest one is the most likely to be true.

Great post!

Nathan Tankus@nathantankus.bsky.social · 6h ago

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: So much of the joint United States-Japanese currency intervention last Friday makes sense, even considering Bessent's silly theatrics. Yet some strange choices "under the hood" portend danger for the global financial system www.crisesnotes.com/a-hidden-geo...

"I will be frank with readers; I’m genuinely concerned about this possibility because of an increasingly effective analytical test in the second Trump term: Is the possibility I’m thinking about incredibly stupid, ill-considered & dangerous? Does it sound like a completely ridiculous & pointless way

Nathan Tankus@nathantankus.bsky.social · 6h ago

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: So much of the joint United States-Japanese currency intervention last Friday makes sense, even considering Bessent's silly theatrics. Yet some strange choices "under the hood" portend danger for the global financial system www.crisesnotes.com/a-hidden-geo...

I do like the implication that winning the primary proved @abdulelsayed.bsky.social is a Doctor.

MeidasTouch@meidastouch.com · 4h ago

A gracious concession: “I want to congratulate Abdul El-Sayed on winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. He is a doctor, a community health official, a Rhodes Scholar, and a dedicated Michigander. I am proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers in the general election…

Damn @tobyn.bsky.social, getting another piece out about the Yen intervention when I just out a piece citing his last one. www.crisesnotes.com/a-hidden-geo...

A Hidden Geopolitical Threat to the Global Financial System? Oddities in the U.S.-Japanese Yen Intervention

This is a Premium Piece of Notes on the Crises. Buy a Paid Subscription Give a Tip! I am way overdue on commentary on international financial and currency markets. I...

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Toby Nangle@tobyn.bsky.social · 7h ago

🚨 Remember when the US Treasury caused that major yen rally in ‘98? Us neither www.ft.com/content/5506...

i've been minorly defensive of zitron bc (tbh) i don't care if he gets things 100% right on AI/data centers, so long as the gist is correct, but.... alright dude, time to chill a bit, you're entering the taibbi zone www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-z...

*Sigh* No Ed Zitron, AI bond issuance is not AI’s "Subprime Mortgage Crisis”

EDITORIAL NOTE: Given the importance of this issue, and in a desire to be fair when writing such a critical piece, I sent a draft of this article to Ed Zitron to review and give his response to. I've ...

crisesnotes.com

Nathan Tankus@nathantankus.bsky.social · 3d ago

UPDATE: I am back from mini-vacation upstate & the paid subscription response was so strong that I'm unlocking Thursday's response to @edzitron.com . Thank you to all the new paid subscribers who made this possible. I'm a writer! I like sharing my writing! www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-z...

for a major development in world events to come about? Does the very foolishness and ridiculousness of the possibility feel like it makes it inevitable since nearly everything is foolish and thoughtless nowadays? To me the answer to all these questions is yes." www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup

Notes on the Crises

Coverage of the ongoing Impoundment and Unitary Executive Constitutional Crisis

crisesnotes.com

"I will be frank with readers; I’m genuinely concerned about this possibility because of an increasingly effective analytical test in the second Trump term: Is the possibility I’m thinking about incredibly stupid, ill-considered & dangerous? Does it sound like a completely ridiculous & pointless way

Nathan Tankus@nathantankus.bsky.social · 6h ago

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: So much of the joint United States-Japanese currency intervention last Friday makes sense, even considering Bessent's silly theatrics. Yet some strange choices "under the hood" portend danger for the global financial system www.crisesnotes.com/a-hidden-geo...

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece: So much of the joint United States-Japanese currency intervention last Friday makes sense, even considering Bessent's silly theatrics. Yet some strange choices "under the hood" portend danger for the global financial system www.crisesnotes.com/a-hidden-geo...

A Hidden Geopolitical Threat to the Global Financial System? Oddities in the U.S.-Japanese Yen Intervention

This is a Premium Piece of Notes on the Crises. If Notes on the Crises gets enough paid subscriptions or tips associated with this piece, it will be unlocked. Given that I’ve committed to ma...

crisesnotes.com

Have a premium @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece coming out tomorrow on the U.S. government's intervention into the Japanese Yen from an angle I haven't seen anyone talk about publicly. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup

30,000,000 dollars Must Smile

#StupidSuez@diplomatofnight.com · 17h ago

30,000,000 dollars

Have a premium @crisesnotes.bsky.social piece coming out tomorrow on the U.S. government's intervention into the Japanese Yen from an angle I haven't seen anyone talk about publicly. www.crisesnotes.com#/portal/signup

Man, I have an abandoned piece from 2024 that largely is the same as this piece today from @tobyn.bsky.social at @alphaville.ft.com. Though I think there's more work to be done to produce a comphrensive picture when aggregating all the "smaller pods" together. Good job! www.ft.com/content/7ff5...

Japan LLC trading update

Currency P&L looking sweet

ft.com

Matt, you have spent countless effort since October 7th doing cynical whataboutism about other genocides/mass human atrocities. Someone else brings up a different genocide and suddenly its irrelevant and not deserving of an honest response? You can't even make bad faith and cynical on-topic replies?

But regardless, articulating the idea that it is rational to become a fascist if you cannot become a Cabinet officer in the non-fascist political party is pretty revealing. Some of us think one's views on fascism should be based on values, not self-interest.

Matt, I'm trying to follow your logic. Is the argument that people like Sandberg are actually good center-left types, but then threw in fascists because people like Jeff were mean to them? Is that the claim?

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 23h ago

Part of Hauser’s schtick is that he kicks people out of the Democratic Party and then when they react by getting friendlier with Republicans claims that this vindicates him, so then he moves on to the next set of people to try to alienate.

Elon is talking about using robots to build a mass accelerator on the moon in support of an economy 1000x to 1 million times the current earth economy. It's a bad sci fi novel not an earnings call.

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE: In this piece I critique a recent piece from @edzitron.com comparing the AI(LLM) boom to the "Subprime" Mortgage Crisis (and implicitly the GFC of 2007-2009). The ? is:"How big of a macrofinancial threat is the AI(LLM) Boom?" www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-z...

*Sigh* No Ed Zitron, AI bond issuance is not AI’s "Subprime Mortgage Crisis”

EDITORIAL NOTE: Given the importance of this issue, and in a desire to be fair when writing such a critical piece, I sent a draft of this article to Ed Zitron to review and give his response to. I've ...

crisesnotes.com

The Oil market is a... conventional wisdom processor you say? I'm shocked. shocked. www.crisesnotes.com/the-oil-mark...

The Oil Market is a Conventional Wisdom Processor

I had so many thoughts about the run up to- and beginning of- the Trump-Iran war. My biggest thoughts were focused on how the ideas that I developed about the stock market as a “conventional wisdom pr...

crisesnotes.com

Financial Times@financialtimes.com · yesterday

Oil falls after Bessent says deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz is imminent ft.trib.al/rLos280

The Oil market is a... conventional wisdom processor you say? I'm shocked. shocked. www.crisesnotes.com/the-oil-mark...

The Oil Market is a Conventional Wisdom Processor

I had so many thoughts about the run up to- and beginning of- the Trump-Iran war. My biggest thoughts were focused on how the ideas that I developed about the stock market as a “conventional wisdom pr...

crisesnotes.com

Financial Times@financialtimes.com · yesterday

Oil falls after Bessent says deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz is imminent ft.trib.al/rLos280

@nathantankus.bsky.social's recent post on the oil market as a conventional wisdom processor captured the dynamic well: basically, it seems that Trump's ability to create downward volatility in the oil market triggered risk controls which have tamped down upward pressure in oil speculation markets.

The Oil Market is a Conventional Wisdom Processor

I had so many thoughts about the run up to- and beginning of- the Trump-Iran war. My biggest thoughts were focused on how the ideas that I developed about the stock market as a “conventional wisdom pr...

crisesnotes.com

"The ability of four companies to simply make the decision to make investment expenditures totaling 2% of U.S. GDP is astounding"

Nathan Tankus@nathantankus.bsky.social · 6d ago

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE: In this piece I critique a recent piece from @edzitron.com comparing the AI(LLM) boom to the "Subprime" Mortgage Crisis (and implicitly the GFC of 2007-2009). The ? is:"How big of a macrofinancial threat is the AI(LLM) Boom?" www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-z...

It is very bad and also very structurally difficult to grapple with that Dems cannot and straight up refuse to jettison the Brett McGurks and Jake Sullivans of the world who basically have the same view of the Middle East as George W Bush lol

BREAKING: EXCLUSIVE: Five months ago, we learned that ICE seized drawings and letters from children in the Dilley ICE concentration camp. I sued under the Freedom of Information Act. Today, I got responsive documents. www.muellershewrote.com/p/breaking-e...

BREAKING: EXCLUSIVE: ICE Seized Drawings from Children in Detention. I Sued, and Today I Got Them.

Five months ago, I filed a Freedom of Information Act Request for papers seized from children at the Dilley ICE Detention Center. Today, I got a heartbreaking response.

muellershewrote.com