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Jason Sardell

@sardell.bsky.social

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Jayson Stark@jaysonst.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Did Jo Adell really have the greatest defensive game ever? In a Weird & Wild special, I went off in search of that answer. When my AI research friend basically made up 2 "legendary" games, I knew I was in trouble www.nytimes.com/athletic/718...

Did Jo Adell really have the greatest defensive game in MLB history?

After a week of hearing Adell's home-run-stealing heroics might have been the greatest defensive game of all time, I decided I had to know.

nytimes.com

Jason Sardell@sardell.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Was thinking of posting a voter breakdown like this, but @jjcoop36.bsky.social did a great job already. A must read if you’re interested in baseball Hall of Fame voting. Or gaining an insight into the pre/post/private voter demographics that inform my projection model.

Jay Jaffe@jayjaffe.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Good stuff here on the evolution of the Hall of Fame voting pool, including the most complete demographic breakdown I’ve seen on time since joining the BBWAA (a proxy for voter age but not a perfect one) vs. candidates selected per ballot. Lots more to unpack here

Jason Sardell@sardell.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Congratulations Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones! Will be great to see them on stage with Jeff Kent this summer. And many thanks to all the BBWAA voters who shared their ballots this year and let us have our fun!

Jason Sardell@sardell.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Less than 24 hours to go until the results of this year's Baseball Hall of Fame election are revealed. If trends with public voters hold, we'll be welcoming two new members: Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. My latest projections with 223 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker.

Table of Baseball Hall of Fame projections listing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% Carlos Beltrán 82% 79% - 86% 100% 0% Andruw Jones 77% 74% - 81% 93% 0% Chase Utley 59% 55% - 63% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 50% 46% - 54% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 49% 45% - 53% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 42% 40% - 44% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 39% 37% - 42% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 31% 29% - 35% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 26% 23% - 30% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 24% 22% - 26% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 23% 21% - 26% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 20% 18% - 23% 0% 0% David Wright 17% 15% - 20% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 19% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 17% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 7% 5% - 9% 0% 5% Ryan Braun 3% 2% - 5% 0% 97% Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.5% - 4% 0% 99% Nick Markakis 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% 99.9% Rick Porcello 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% 99.9% Shin-Soo Choo 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% >99.9% Hunter Pence 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% >99.9%
Jason Sardell@sardell.bsky.social · 8mo ago

With 148 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's very likely that Carlos Beltrán will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame by the BBWAA this year. Andruw Jones is currently on pace to join him and Jeff Kent in Cooperstown but his fans shouldn't take that for granted yet. My latest projections:

Table of Hall of Fame projections listing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, % Simulations <5% Carlos Beltrán 81% 76% - 86% 99.7% 0% Andruw Jones 76% 73% - 80% 74% 0% Chase Utley 57% 52% - 63% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 51% 45% - 57% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 49% 44% - 54% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 43% 40% - 47% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 40% 37% - 44% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 33% 29% - 38% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 25% 21% - 31% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 24% 21% - 29% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 24% 21% - 28% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 18% 16% - 23% 0% 0% David Wright 17% 15% - 22% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 20% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 18% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 5% 3% - 8% 0% 50% Ryan Braun 3% 1% - 8% 0% 82% Edwin Encarnación 2% 0.5% - 7% 0% 90% Shin-Soo Choo 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 96% Hunter Pence 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 96%
Jason Sardell@sardell.bsky.social · 8mo ago

My first set of 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections with 112 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Current trends indicate that Carlos Beltrán is very likely to enter the Hall this year, but it's still unclear whether Andruw Jones will join him.

Table with Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75, and % Simulations <5% for players on the ballot. Carlos Beltrán 81% 75% - 87% 99% 0% Andruw Jones 77% 72% - 81% 77% 0% Chase Utley 57% 51% - 64% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 47% 41% - 54% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 46% 41% - 53% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 44% 40% - 50% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 40% 36% - 45% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 33% 29% - 40% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 25% 19% - 32% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 25% 21% - 31% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 24% 19% - 29% 0% 0% David Wright 18% 14% - 25% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 18% 15% - 24% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 13% - 21% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 15% 12% - 21% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 4% 2% - 9% 0% 65% Ryan Braun 4% 1% - 10% 0% 70% Shin-Soo Choo 1% 0.2% - 8% 0% 88% Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.2% - 8% 0% 88% Hunter Pence 1% 0.2% - 8% 0% 88%
Jason Sardell@sardell.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Will post my first full set of 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections in the new year. But as a sneak peak, my model has Carlos Beltrán elected in 82% of simulations based on 100 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com’s Tracker. Andruw Jones elected 57% of the time.

Chris Bodig@cooperstowncred.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Congratulations to Jeff Kent, who was elected tonight to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. He got 14 votes from the 16-member committee. Carlos Delgado came in 2nd place with 9 votes, while Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy got 6 votes each. www.cooperstowncred.com/jeff-kent-fi...

Jeff Kent: The First Member of the Hall of Fame's Class of 2026 - Cooperstown Cred

Jeff Kent hit 377 home runs in his MLB career, the most ever for a 2nd baseman and yet he has never gotten close to the Hall of Fame on the BBWAA ballot.

cooperstowncred.com

Jason Sardell@sardell.bsky.social · 9mo ago

By my count, @jaysonst.bsky.social voted for 5 players on this ballot, called Valenzuela "Paul Skenes times a billion" and Delgado "the best player in history to get booted off the ballot after his first year". Godspeed to him in navigating this especially difficult challenge in ballot triage!

Jayson Stark@jaysonst.bsky.social · 9mo ago

The @baseballhall.org just announced that I'm one of the 16 members of the Contemporary Era Committee that will meet Sunday to elect the newest Hall of Famer(s). I'm honored to serve. But it means I won't be writing a column Sunday to analyze the vote. Here's why. www.nytimes.com/athletic/685...

Jayson Stark@jaysonst.bsky.social · 9mo ago

The @baseballhall.org just announced that I'm one of the 16 members of the Contemporary Era Committee that will meet Sunday to elect the newest Hall of Famer(s). I'm honored to serve. But it means I won't be writing a column Sunday to analyze the vote. Here's why. www.nytimes.com/athletic/685...

This Hall of Fame Contemporary Era election, I won’t just be an observer. I’ll be a voter

This time around, I’ll be serving on the 16-member committee, along with The Athletic's Tyler Kepner. Here's what you should know.

nytimes.com