James David Griffiths
@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan
Great article by @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social in the FT and on my favourite topic too: fragmentation! www.ft.com/content/28ea...
Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast
The battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two
ft.com
Great to see this out! @jaclarner.bsky.social @danielwincott.bsky.social and I found that national identity responds to referendums. The effect was temporary after the Scottish referendum, but post-Brexit the identity gap between Remain and Leave voters has grown considerably over time. 🧵
British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social · 2w agoNEW - Reshaping Belonging: National Identity Change in Post-Referendum Britain - https://cup.org/4AhXkmW - @jaclarner.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social & @danielwincott.bsky.social #OpenAccess
Delighted to see this paper out in the wild. Diolch yn fawr to the editors @bjpols.bsky.social to our anonymous referees and, especially, to my fantastic co-authors @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social
British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social · 2w agoNEW - Reshaping Belonging: National Identity Change in Post-Referendum Britain - https://cup.org/4AhXkmW - @jaclarner.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social & @danielwincott.bsky.social #OpenAccess
📢 New Data 📢 We are pleased to announce the release of Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. You can find out more information, including where to download the data, here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
Release note for Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel - The British Election Study
britishelectionstudy.com
By May 2026, Labour had lost far more voters to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform UK, even in pro-Brexit and “marginal” areas. Reform may be competing with Labour for seats, but they are not really competing for the same voters. Short 🧵
The British Election Study@britishelectionstudy.com · last mo.📣Blog #2 📣 Even in pro-Brexit and marginal seats, Labour had lost far more support to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform UK by May 2026. Read more from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, Ed Fieldhouse, and Stuart Perrett here, which showcases new BESIP (W31) data: tinyurl.com/ms3c8z8y
This is work by me, Geoffrey Evans, Zack Grant, Justin Robinson. We show The Economic Insecurity Trap. Published today by @jrf-uk.bsky.social. Thanks to @benzaranko.bsky.social for seeing the importance of household experiences of economic insecurity. NEW REPORT: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit...
The economic insecurity trap
Financial insecurity is self-reinforcing. Setbacks mean reduced planning and saving, and increasing unemployment, income loss and housing costs. Financial vulnerability is persistent and widespread an...
jrf.org.uk
Ben Zaranko@benzaranko.bsky.social · 2mo agoPeople report the highest levels of economic insecurity in mid-life, as they get squeezed by mortgage and childcare costs. New research from @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al shows how insecurity can become a trap: financial setback -> less saving -> more insecure. observer.co.uk/news/busines...
New publication out and open access at @poqjournal.bsky.social with the legendary @jaclarner.bsky.social! How does support for the UK monarchy change over the lifespan or differ between cohorts? 🧵 (1/x) doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
Long May They Reign? Age and Cohort Effects on Monarchism in the UK
Abstract. The monarchy is a long-standing British institution that enjoys high visibility across the world. However, there is concern that younger generati
doi.org
@britishelectionstudy.com Director Prof Ed Fieldhouse here explaining the Brexit realignment with insights from our new forthcoming book … please check it out! blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Brexit is still shaping British politics | LSE British Politics
Brexit is no longer front of mind for voters, but the values and identities that they organised around in the run up to the referendum still shape how they vote.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
A short blog from Ed and me about the enduring role that Brexit is having on British politics!
LSE British Politics and Policy@lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social · 3mo agoTen years after the referendum, Brexit is still shaping British politics. By Ed Fieldhouse and @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
I've put together some thoughts, with the help of friends, on Andy Burnham and Northerness, for the Sunday Times. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Will Andy Burnham appeal beyond M62 if he becomes PM?
The new MP for Makerfield has become an expert at using his regional identity as a political tool. He would be the first ‘proper’ northerner in No 10 for 50 years
thetimes.com
The 2024 UK General Election had a bigger effect on national identity in Britain than Euro 2024 Sound surprising? Well, we found this as part of a paper accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social With the World Cup ⚽️ starting tomorrow, this is the perfect time to read more blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
The World Cup is coming, but does football influence national identity at home?
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Labour lost in Wales for the first time in a century. If you want to know more about how that happened (among other things about Welsh politics), then this today's event is for you! Some really cool stuff here, from some excellent people, and its all online!
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social · 4mo agoYmunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election. Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...
Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
BLOG POST: why I think the measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems is wrong, and what to do about it www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/mixed_...
The measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems – chris hanretty
I introduce an extension of the Sainte-Laguë index which allows for the calculation of disproportionality in mixed member systems. The index is based on the joint distribution of votes cast across bot...
chrishanretty.co.uk
⏰ CALL FOR PAPERS - EPSS PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOP ON PLACE, POLITICS AND EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY ⏰ Submit by Weds 20 May! For all those interested in politics of geographic divides and keen to explore impact potential of their work. More info/submit here: shorturl.at/xS0iS @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social
EPSS pre-conference: “Place, Politics, and Evidence-Based Policy”
In this pre-conference workshop we bring together researchers who study the role of place in politics, and we want to focus particularly on how we (can) make impact on policies and public debates with...
shorturl.at
🏴 New Blog 🏴 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇
All change! The 2026 Senedd Election
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Llongyfarchiadau mawr i griw @yougov.co.uk ac i griw @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a @walesgovernance.bsky.social sy'n gweithio hefo nhw. Big up the whole YouGov team and the associated ITV/Wales Governance Centre teams! yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
YouGov’s was the most accurate seat projection of the 2026 Welsh Senedd election
YouGov correctly predicted a historic shift in Welsh politics, with Labour’s dominance overturned by a Plaid Cymru and Reform UK surge
yougov.com
Btw, please do follow @martamiori.bsky.social for the best graphs in the UK elections business (yes, I am biased…) and for the insight and all-round brilliance.
🚨NEW BLOG🚨 With polls opening in less than 24 hours, I thought it would be good to look over the kind of information environment voters would be operating in in Wales! 🏴 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Uncertainty and Asymmetry: Electoral Understanding in the 2026 Senedd Election
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Some wider thoughts on this research. A (not so) wee 🧵. The UK experienced a series of high stakes events between 2014 and 2020. Thanks to @britishelectionstudy.com for asking a pre and post referendum NatID question. Without panel data on this q, we could never have known about this change. 1/n
James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 5mo ago🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇
James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 5mo ago🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
Delighted this paper is coming out in the @bjpols.bsky.social Working with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social is a pleasure and privilege. (Anyone who gets the chance to work with either should grab it with both hands!) Diolch to my coauthors, the BJPS editors and our referees.
James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 5mo ago🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
Dropbox
tinyurl.com
If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!
How the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system forever
YouTube video by ITV News
youtube.com
So proud of all our hard work on this! Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.
Jane Green@profjanegreen.bsky.social · 5mo agoIf I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!
See @richardwynjones.bsky.social for further and better particulars on the coming fall of Welsh Labour (and Labour Wales) nation.cymru/feature/wale...
Wales and Welsh politics after Labour hegemony
Richard Wyn Jones As readers of Nation.Cymru, you won’t need me to remind you – the result of Thursday’s Senedd election is very much in the balance. The polls suggest that it’s too close to call in t...
nation.cymru
Daniel Wincott@danielwincott.bsky.social · 5mo agoInteresting article. I have a somewhat different take on Wales. Welsh Labour is showing signs of exhaustion. But the defeat it faces next month is of historic significance for Labour across the UK. Not just since devolution, Labour has won every national election in Wales for a century. 1/4
Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
Newydd gan @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social am heriau etholiadol y Blaid Lafur yng Nghymru o flaen etholiad #Senedd26 | New from Dr James Griffiths about the Labour Party's electoral challenges ahead of the Welsh Parliament election in May. #Wales #Cymru blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
🏴 New Blog 🏴 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk