James David Griffiths
@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan
New publication out and open access at @poqjournal.bsky.social with the legendary @jaclarner.bsky.social! How does support for the UK monarchy change over the lifespan or differ between cohorts? 🧵 (1/x) doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
Long May They Reign? Age and Cohort Effects on Monarchism in the UK
Abstract. The monarchy is a long-standing British institution that enjoys high visibility across the world. However, there is concern that younger generati
doi.org
@britishelectionstudy.com Director Prof Ed Fieldhouse here explaining the Brexit realignment with insights from our new forthcoming book … please check it out! blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Brexit is still shaping British politics | LSE British Politics
Brexit is no longer front of mind for voters, but the values and identities that they organised around in the run up to the referendum still shape how they vote.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
A short blog from Ed and me about the enduring role that Brexit is having on British politics!
LSE British Politics and Policy@lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social · last mo.Ten years after the referendum, Brexit is still shaping British politics. By Ed Fieldhouse and @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
I've put together some thoughts, with the help of friends, on Andy Burnham and Northerness, for the Sunday Times. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Will Andy Burnham appeal beyond M62 if he becomes PM?
The new MP for Makerfield has become an expert at using his regional identity as a political tool. He would be the first ‘proper’ northerner in No 10 for 50 years
thetimes.com
The 2024 UK General Election had a bigger effect on national identity in Britain than Euro 2024 Sound surprising? Well, we found this as part of a paper accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social With the World Cup ⚽️ starting tomorrow, this is the perfect time to read more blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
The World Cup is coming, but does football influence national identity at home?
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Labour lost in Wales for the first time in a century. If you want to know more about how that happened (among other things about Welsh politics), then this today's event is for you! Some really cool stuff here, from some excellent people, and its all online!
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social · 2mo agoYmunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election. Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...
Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
BLOG POST: why I think the measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems is wrong, and what to do about it www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/mixed_...
The measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems – chris hanretty
I introduce an extension of the Sainte-Laguë index which allows for the calculation of disproportionality in mixed member systems. The index is based on the joint distribution of votes cast across bot...
chrishanretty.co.uk
⏰ CALL FOR PAPERS - EPSS PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOP ON PLACE, POLITICS AND EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY ⏰ Submit by Weds 20 May! For all those interested in politics of geographic divides and keen to explore impact potential of their work. More info/submit here: shorturl.at/xS0iS @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social
EPSS pre-conference: “Place, Politics, and Evidence-Based Policy”
In this pre-conference workshop we bring together researchers who study the role of place in politics, and we want to focus particularly on how we (can) make impact on policies and public debates with...
shorturl.at
🏴 New Blog 🏴 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇
All change! The 2026 Senedd Election
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Llongyfarchiadau mawr i griw @yougov.co.uk ac i griw @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a @walesgovernance.bsky.social sy'n gweithio hefo nhw. Big up the whole YouGov team and the associated ITV/Wales Governance Centre teams! yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
YouGov’s was the most accurate seat projection of the 2026 Welsh Senedd election
YouGov correctly predicted a historic shift in Welsh politics, with Labour’s dominance overturned by a Plaid Cymru and Reform UK surge
yougov.com
Btw, please do follow @martamiori.bsky.social for the best graphs in the UK elections business (yes, I am biased…) and for the insight and all-round brilliance.
🚨NEW BLOG🚨 With polls opening in less than 24 hours, I thought it would be good to look over the kind of information environment voters would be operating in in Wales! 🏴 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Uncertainty and Asymmetry: Electoral Understanding in the 2026 Senedd Election
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Some wider thoughts on this research. A (not so) wee 🧵. The UK experienced a series of high stakes events between 2014 and 2020. Thanks to @britishelectionstudy.com for asking a pre and post referendum NatID question. Without panel data on this q, we could never have known about this change. 1/n
James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 3mo ago🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇
James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 3mo ago🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
Delighted this paper is coming out in the @bjpols.bsky.social Working with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social is a pleasure and privilege. (Anyone who gets the chance to work with either should grab it with both hands!) Diolch to my coauthors, the BJPS editors and our referees.
James David Griffiths@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 3mo ago🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
Dropbox
tinyurl.com
If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!
How the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system forever
YouTube video by ITV News
youtube.com
So proud of all our hard work on this! Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.
Jane Green@profjanegreen.bsky.social · 3mo agoIf I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!
See @richardwynjones.bsky.social for further and better particulars on the coming fall of Welsh Labour (and Labour Wales) nation.cymru/feature/wale...
Wales and Welsh politics after Labour hegemony
Richard Wyn Jones As readers of Nation.Cymru, you won’t need me to remind you – the result of Thursday’s Senedd election is very much in the balance. The polls suggest that it’s too close to call in t...
nation.cymru
Daniel Wincott@danielwincott.bsky.social · 3mo agoInteresting article. I have a somewhat different take on Wales. Welsh Labour is showing signs of exhaustion. But the defeat it faces next month is of historic significance for Labour across the UK. Not just since devolution, Labour has won every national election in Wales for a century. 1/4
Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
Newydd gan @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social am heriau etholiadol y Blaid Lafur yng Nghymru o flaen etholiad #Senedd26 | New from Dr James Griffiths about the Labour Party's electoral challenges ahead of the Welsh Parliament election in May. #Wales #Cymru blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
🏴 New Blog 🏴 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇
On leaders, Rhun ap Iorwerth is favourite for First Minister in head to head comparisons, with caveat that a clear majority just aren't sure Will be doing some more on next few days on attitudes to government formation and issues with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
Dr @jaclarner.bsky.social ar Sharp End neithiwr yn trafod pôl piniwn diweddaraf @YouGov / @itvcymruwales.bsky.social Dr Jac Larner on ITV Sharp End last night discussing the latest Barn Cymru poll. Full programme link below 👇 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru
New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social · 4mo ago“Plaid Cymru remain in the strongest position - Reform faces far greater constraints, yet there should be no mistake: winning a third of seats would represent a remarkable result.” - @jaclarner.bsky.social #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
Barely 2 per cent of Britons belong to a political party. Yet this tiny, unrepresentative minority helps decide who gets selected to stand for Parliament, who gets to lead our parties and, ultimately, who gets to govern the country. So who are they? journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Perfect if you want to know more about the upcoming Welsh election!
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social · 5mo agoYou are warmly invited to join the research team from the Wales Governance Centre for our Pre-Election Briefing ahead of the Welsh Parliament election. #Wales #Senedd26 Prof. Richard Wyn Jones and Dr Ed Poole will present our latest analysis on the politics and public attitudes of Wales: