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David Karpa

@dkarpa.bsky.social

Postdoc at HfP, TUM political behavior, political economy, and political psychology www.davidkarpa.com

373 Posts1883 Follower1736 Folgt
Benjamin Braun@benbraun.eurosky.social · 2w ago

In 2008, the banks achieved being bailed out by governments through "inaction", as explained by @corneliawoll.bsky.social. This time is different: Because AI giants lack the structural power of banks, they will have to work for a government bailout. Looks like they've just launched that campaign.

The Wall Street Journal@wsj.com · 2w ago

OpenAI and Anthropic executives are sounding the alarm about the rise of cheap AI, particularly powerful new models produced in China, suggesting they will lead to a “dystopian” AI future and present unacceptable security risks without regulation.

CRC Rationality & Competition@rationalitycrc.bsky.social · 2w ago

How transport subsidies fall short as climate policy: Germany’s 9-Euro Ticket boosted rail travel by 35% but cost €6,140/tCO2 due to minimal car-to-rail substitution. Though an efficient cost-of-living transfer, the passenger surge triggered a 30% surge in train delays.

Welfare vs. Climate: Lessons from Germany’s 9-Euro Ticket

Wichert et al.: "Almost fare free: Impact of a cheap public transport ticket on mobility patterns and train delays" Journal of Public Economics 258 (2026)

190researchblog.substack.com

David Karpa@dkarpa.bsky.social · last mo.

there are bad apples in meta-science, too. after all, it's a field where people get to play right a lot and that seems to be attractive for a certain kind of person

Katrin Auspurg@kauspurg.bsky.social · last mo.

There’s been a lot of buzz around the Borjas/Breznau (2026) paper (www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...) and potential ideological bias in research. We took a closer look at the data. Could there be a "bias in bias research"? Here is what we found: www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

David Karpa@dkarpa.bsky.social · 2mo ago

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... "rural residents express stronger place-based identification and perceive greater conflict than urban citizens". I can totally see that voting far-right is a also function of perceived conflict. nice paper! @kai-arzheimer.com

The psychological basis of the urban–rural divide: Evidence from Germany

Over the past decade, scholarly attention to the political relevance of “place” has increased, especially regarding the far right and in the contexts …

sciencedirect.com

Philipp Heimberger@heimbergecon.bsky.social · 3mo ago

What happens when the state quietly disappears? A new paper finds that support for populism in Italy (2008–18) rose where hospitals closed, especially in remote municipalities. Greater distance to public services reinforced feelings of abandonment and boosted populist voting.

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Omar Wasow@owasow.bsky.social · 3mo ago

“Writing is hard.” Thrilled to share that this simple idea led to a new paper in Political Analysis! Where most text methods focus on content, I test if expression is also effortful action. I find simple measures like character counts reveal attitudes and predict voting. cup.org/4cUmoXi 1/

Text as Behavior Text as Behavior published in Political Analysis by Omar Wasow Abstract Text analysis typically focuses on content—such as sentiment or topic—but expression is also a form of effortful action. Building on this insight, I propose using simple features of open-ended tasks to study text as behavior. This approach treats expression, such as writing, as cognitively, emotionally and temporally “costly” for subjects but inexpensive for researchers. I show basic statistics like the number of characters can approximate effort and significantly improve estimation of quantities of interest, including candidate choice, the probability of turning out to vote and psychological states about which a subject may not be fully aware. Further, these methods can convert nonresponse into informative data; validate survey instruments; serve as mechanism checks; be hard for a subject to “game”; work across different languages and analogize well to real-world situations. In sum, text as behavior can help address a range of issues related to quantifying attitudes and actions.
Shay O’Brien@shayobrien.bsky.social · 4mo ago

My latest article is online now at American Sociological Review: “Kinship Interlocks.” It’s about how some elite families manage to stay rich and powerful for many generations while others don’t. 🧵 (1/16)

Kinship Interlocks: How the Intimate Exchange of Wealth, Status, and Power Generates Upper-Class Persistence - Shay O’Brien, 2026

How do some families manage to entrench themselves in the upper class for many generations while others do not? Bringing together economic sociology, political ...

journals.sagepub.com

Dan Quintana@dsquintana.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Selecting an effect size for power analysis is hard. Many researchers fall back on Cohen's thresholds, but they have no empirical basis and vary wildly by field. Our new paper offers a better option: field-specific effect size distributions built from meta-analytic data doi.org/10.3758/s134...

Abstract Effect sizes are useful for understanding the magnitude of study results and for planning new studies via power analysis. However, despite their wide usage, effect sizes are often misinterpreted. This is mostly due to an over-reliance on general effect size benchmarks that were not intended for broad application across diverse research fields. Inaccurate effect size interpretations can lead to incorrect conclusions about the magnitude of study results and incorrect sample size estimates, thereby increasing the likelihood of false-positive results. This article introduces the ESDist R package, which is designed to calculate empirically derived effect-size benchmarks or a range of reliably detectable empirical effect sizes for a specific research question or field of interest by computing effect size distributions (ESDs). This package can be used on data that can be easily extracted from pre-existing meta-analyses to help researchers more accurately plan new studies or to better understand how an individual study might relate to other studies in their field. ESDist includes a set of features that make it easy to use in a priori power analysis. Moreover, the package includes a feature for estimating effect size benchmarks that account for publication bias and are weighted by effect sizes' variances, which addresses existing limitations of using ESDs for study planning or interpretation.
Philipp Heimberger@heimbergecon.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Today, I presented our paper on how fiscal consolidation (spending cuts/tax hikes to reduce the fiscal deficit) affects political instability - government popularity, major government crises and protest activity - in advanced economies. Working paper coming soon!

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Benjamin Braun@benbraun.eurosky.social · 3mo ago

And executives are, of course, perfectly aware of this attribution mechanism among consumers. We found lots of statements explaining it in their earnings calls with analysts. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: How cost shocks facilitate price hikes

Supply shocks are now widely recognized as a driver of the recent inflation bout, but the role of firms’ pricing strategies in propagating input cost …

sciencedirect.com

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Here's a nice theory of greedflation. It's not "greed went up." It's that price volatility leads consumers (w/ imperfect info) to attribute a greater share of a firm's price to overall inflation. This makes demand more inelastic & gives firms more market power www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Wolfgang Blau@wblau.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Holy sh.. The cover of Germany‘s very pro-business Manager Magazin about Minister Reiche‘s irresponsible decision to double down on gas power plants. Illustrates once more that old journalistic frames of there being such a monolithic thing as ‚the business community‘ are outdated.

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Patrick Breitenbach@patrickbreitenbach.de · 3mo ago

Die Reform zum Angst-Modell: Man kann in kleineren Betrieben jederzeit gefeuert werden, landet dann in einer kargen Grundsicherung und wird dort unter Androhung von Sanktionen gezwungen, sofort jede neue Arbeit anzunehmen. Konzerne könnten dann Teilbereiche an 49-Personen-Betriebe outsourcen. /1

Union wollte in Reformverhandlungen offenbar Kündigungsschutz aufweichen

Zwei Tage verhandelten Union und SPD in der Villa Borsig vor knapp zwei Wochen über Reformen. Heraus kam nicht viel, die Vorstellungen der Koalitionäre lagen zu weit auseinander - wohl auch beim Thema...

tagesschau.de

Petter Törnberg@pettertornberg.com · 3mo ago

Social media is no longer social. Most of it is passive viewing of videos and pictures from people we've never met. But we're still studying social media like it's 2010. We've entered the post-social media era — and research needs to catch up. osf.io/preprints/so... preprint w/ Richard Rogers

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Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 4mo ago

Good news everyone 🥳 Our (w @vincentab.bsky.social) primer on models as prediction machines (with the marginaleffects package) is finally officially published!> journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients Into Clear Quantities - Julia M. Rohrer, Vincent Arel-Bundock, 2026

Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear model...

journals.sagepub.com