DottieB 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

@dottieb.bsky.social

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

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Also SMART METERS - UK govt install SM, NOT install working SM FAILURE for majority of Scottish rural homes and even city tenements.. SM needs good permanent 4Gsigmal to work. Fail in stone buildings, dodgy signal areas.. UK govt deliberately undermining Scotland. WTF Independence now.

Andrew Sharpe 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿|🇪🇺@andrew.sharpe.scot · 8h ago

Regulation of mobile phone operators in Scotland is controlled by British governments in England. This is the result.

My son graduated from university this summer. He is a Scottish graduate who went to a Scottish university. As such he didn't pay any tuition fees. As he commuted from home, he has no debt from living in Edinburgh. A graduate with no debt. Just like his dad and mum were.

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Rhetoric - Labour UK govt in Westminster. One main policy priority to nuild 350,000 homes on England every year, homes where people live and work Reality - in Brick Lane, East London, UK govt approves datacentre, offices & 44 new homes. 30,000 on waiting list. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

Approval of east London datacentre labelled ‘slap in the face’ for local democracy

Campaigners decry Angela Rayner’s backing for Brick Lane project that has only 11 affordable homes

theguardian.com

THREAD/ORIGINAL ART GIVEAWAY This hare linoprint is by my mum, Jo. I'll be sending an original of this to one randomly chosen person who reposts this link to my recently updated website & pops a reply below. www.tom-cox.com The offer is open worldwide. I also have some more art to give away...

A meadow hare, filled with flowers, cut from lino by my mum, Jo.

Brilliant letter from Stuart Thompson to Jeremy Clarkson about his comments that benefit claimants should write weekly thank you letters to tax payers detailing how they spend their benefits each week.

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Stirling Council run by the SNP at the time, delivered a Council owned solar covered Castleview car park as part of their Park and Ride scheme in 2021. So there is evidence out there. Also, since 2017, Stirling Council's been improving their housing stock with solar panels and now batteries.

Christine Harrison@harrisonchris38.bsky.social · 3d ago

Why @labouruk.bsky.social @miattafahnbulleh.bsky.social It's so good finding these covered areas in french supermarket car parks, no brainer for UK surely with the weather extremes we're getting?

The dystopian world worthy of George Orwell genocide perpetrated by the terrorist state of Israel is supported by a majority of Cabinet members while people protesing against genocide are condemned as terrorists

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AMAZING MOMENT A woman came back still wearing a custody tshirt having been released for a terrorism arrest. While being arrested for declaring support for Palestine Action a second time, another woman came back to do the same. The opposition to this ban cannot be contained.

Finally: if the 48% change was only ever supposed to raise £8m, then why bother doing it? This is an important question which I discuss in the piece. And it relates to where I think the Scottish Government took a wrong turn on tax policy.

While headlines claimed "a reform that should have raised £53m lost £22m". The reality is "a reform that should have raised £8m lost £9m under highly questionable assumptions". This is a fiscally insignificant difference, and not proof of anything.

The Self Assessment evidence is also fairly weak. It covers all SA taxpayers, and there is already a pre-existing downwards trend driven by other factors. As Dan himself notes, once this pre-existing trend is allowed for, the result is no longer statistically significant.

The top-band population rose by 70% in Scotland, versus just 55% in rUK. By definition, these new entrants would have lower average incomes, reducing Scotland’s average top-band income more sharply than in rUK.

To support his tax hypothesis, Dan highlights a decline in Scotland’s ratio of average top income to rUK as a sign of behavioural change. However, the threshold fell from £150,000 to £125,140 in 2023-24, increasing the number of taxpayers in the top band – but not consistently.

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The £22m estimate is also extremely sensitive to this critical assumption. If Scottish top incomes grew just 1.2% more slowly than rUK, the loss disappears. At 2% slower, there is a £14m gain. As top-incomes in Scotland regularly diverge widely from rUK, this is all possible.

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This is little more than sleight of hand dressed up as economics. If Dan wants to defend the £22m figure, he needs to explain what drove Scotland’s historic divergence, and why it's not relevant. Those non-tax factors can't simply be wished away to make the tax hypothesis fit.

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This is key, because after assuming Scottish top incomes would have tracked rUK, Dan then attributes the entire shortfall to tax. But Scotland diverged long before tax policy did. Dan's model effectively assumes away competing explanations and asserts that it's all tax-related.

Using UK growth to predict Scotland in the past would have produced large forecasting errors. This matters because Dan’s £22m estimate depends on one-year exact matching. The historical relationship shows this is highly questionable.

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An alternative HMRC dataset, using a fixed £150,000 threshold back to 2010-11, shows the same point. Growth of high-incomes in Scotland is far more volatile than the UK's – including long before Scotland diverged on income tax.

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Dan's own data show that the growth in Scottish top incomes has historically differed sharply from rUK. Scottish trends are far more volatile. The key assumption driving the £22m “loss” is therefore empirically weak. This alone should be enough to make us extremely cautious.

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