Dr David Jeffery

@drdavidjeffery.bsky.social

Senior lecturer in British politics at the University of Liverpool. Expect academic work, parkrun/triathlon spam, and graphs. Views my own 🏳️‍🌈 Book: Whatever Happened to Tory Liverpool? Free ebook (& other links)--> https://linktr.ee/david_jeffery

The impact of the alphabet on electoral performance is real (data from 2023 locals): ⬇️Every position lower on the ballot within your party costs ~1.2 percentage points of vote share. ⬆️Being an incumbent is worth ~1.7 percentage points so being 2nd wipes out 70% of the incumbency advantage.

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Listening to the ghosts of Tories past - and moving to the 'centre' - is not a great idea for Kemi. If you track how Tory voters in each GE have voted in other elections, it's not clear that the Cameronite coalition has fled the Tories for centrist parties.

A grid of horizontal stacked bar charts titled “How Former Conservative Voters Have Voted Over Time.” Each panel represents a group of voters defined by the election year in which they voted Conservative (e.g. 2005 Tory Voters through 2025 Tory Voters). Within each panel, bars show the proportional distribution (0–100%) of how those voters reported voting in other general elections (2005 to 2025). Bars are colour-coded by party: Conservative (blue), UKIP/BXP/Reform (teal), Liberal Democrat (yellow), Labour (red), Green (green), Other (light grey), and Don’t Know/Would Not Vote (dark grey). Across all panels, Conservative remains the largest share in most years, with noticeable variation over time in support for UKIP/BXP/Reform, Labour, and other parties. The x-axis shows proportion, the y-axis lists election years, and the legend appears at the bottom. Source: British Election Study Waves 1–30.

Spent the morning geeking out on the Dutch elections - a bad night for Geert Wilders, but not as bad for the populist radical right generally. We also saw some shuffling among the centre - collapse of the Christian democratic NSC boosted the CSA and liberal D66. #Netherlands

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"A clear divide exists in local government along overlapping economic and cultural lines. Reform councillors typically take the most rightwing positions (except on the NHS) followed by the Conservatives, including on tax & spend." Top survey research from @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social & Mitya Pearson.

How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties

Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.

theconversation.com

Happy Birthday! It was an excellent workshop with lots of great papers from a sampling of chapters & wider discussions. The weather also held up nicely so we had lunch on the Square! I'm certain the book will be a valuable contribution to leadership & #Conservative studies. @livunipol.bsky.social

Dr David Jeffery@drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · last yr.

Celebrating my final day of being 32 by hosting an academic workshop at @livunipol.bsky.social for our upcoming book 'The Truss and Sunak premierships: the challenges of party renewal in the post-Johnson Conservative Party', with @andrewcrines.bsky.social.

Liverpool might seem solidly Labour but Reform could soon become the city's main opposition. This map shows 2nd-placed parties from the 2014/15 local elections - north Liverpool is almost as purple as our wheelie bins (...and might explain Dan Carden’s shift towards blue Labour)

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🚨 We've got a new journal article out analysing bases of support in the Conservative Party leadership election. 🧐The decline of ideology as a key determinant of MPs' voting behaviour is striking. 🤓and since the contest ended in Nov, this is a quick turnaround for academia!

Dr Andrew S. Roe-Crines 🏳️‍🌈@andrewcrines.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW! Delighted to have a new article in Parliamentary Affairs that deals with the topic everyone is talk about - #Badenoch's election as @Conservatives leader! With @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social and Tim Heppell, the article can be found here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a... @livunipol.bsky.social

Quick comparison to the population at large, because I was curious. MPs % first, then Wikipedia's % from combined census data from 2021-22: Christian 54.7 vs 46.53 None 36.4 vs 37.75 Muslim 3.9 vs 5.97 Jewish 2 vs 0.41 Sikh 1.9 vs 0.79 Hindu 0.9 vs 1.59 Buddhist 0.2 vs 0.43

Dr David Jeffery@drdavidjeffery.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨Today, MPs are voting on assisted dying. Religion plays a key role in this debate - but until now, we haven’t had good public* data on MPs’ religious affiliations. So I built a dashboard to fix that: 🔗https://davidjeffery.shinyapps.io/mp-religion/ ⬇️ Here's the breakdown of the religion of MPs

🚨Today, MPs are voting on assisted dying. Religion plays a key role in this debate - but until now, we haven’t had good public* data on MPs’ religious affiliations. So I built a dashboard to fix that: 🔗https://davidjeffery.shinyapps.io/mp-religion/ ⬇️ Here's the breakdown of the religion of MPs

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