The impact of the alphabet on electoral performance is real (data from 2023 locals): ⬇️Every position lower on the ballot within your party costs ~1.2 percentage points of vote share. ⬆️Being an incumbent is worth ~1.7 percentage points so being 2nd wipes out 70% of the incumbency advantage.
Dr David Jeffery
@drdavidjeffery.bsky.social
Senior lecturer in British politics at the University of Liverpool. Expect academic work, parkrun/triathlon spam, and graphs. Views my own 🏳️🌈 Book: Whatever Happened to Tory Liverpool? Free ebook (& other links)--> https://linktr.ee/david_jeffery
Updating my slides for my local government module - any guesses as to what these maps are showing?
Me, in @unherd.com - Are Wes Streeting’s leadership hopes dead? (Yes) unherd.com/newsroom/are...
Are Wes Streeting’s leadership hopes dead?
Wes Streeting has never been shy about his leadership ambitions, and briefing this morning from “allies” suggests he may be gearing up for another tilt at Keir Starmer’s job. But the likelihood of the...
unherd.com
Trying to organise a drinks reception in uni: - Cost of buying the drinks from (compulsory) in-house catering = £650. - Cost of buying the same drinks from the on-campus Tesco = £250. Madness.
Listening to the ghosts of Tories past - and moving to the 'centre' - is not a great idea for Kemi. If you track how Tory voters in each GE have voted in other elections, it's not clear that the Cameronite coalition has fled the Tories for centrist parties.
Well, that's one hell of a REF impact case study over in Gorton and Denton.
As Reform’s councillor base grows, I’m resharing our study on how party policy positions differ across England. 'How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties' in @uk.theconversation.com theconversation.com/how-englands...
How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties
Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.
theconversation.com
Nothing says 'start the week right' like a journal sending a paper rejection at 8:39 on a Monday! #thingscanonlygetbetter
It's a pleasure to be at the University of Tours for a conference on the future of the Conservative Party, in memory of our colleague Agnés Alexandre-Collier. The @psaconservatism.bsky.social specialist group is also sponsoring a roundtable on the future of British conservatism.
Spent the morning geeking out on the Dutch elections - a bad night for Geert Wilders, but not as bad for the populist radical right generally. We also saw some shuffling among the centre - collapse of the Christian democratic NSC boosted the CSA and liberal D66. #Netherlands
"A clear divide exists in local government along overlapping economic and cultural lines. Reform councillors typically take the most rightwing positions (except on the NHS) followed by the Conservatives, including on tax & spend." Top survey research from @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social & Mitya Pearson.
How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties
Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.
theconversation.com
New article out in @uk.theconversation.com! What are the big divides among GB councillors? How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties theconversation.com/how-englands...
How England’s new Reform councillors compare in their views to other parties
Reform councillors are more aligned with Greens when it comes to building more houses but take quite different views on crime and tax and spend.
theconversation.com
Happy Birthday! It was an excellent workshop with lots of great papers from a sampling of chapters & wider discussions. The weather also held up nicely so we had lunch on the Square! I'm certain the book will be a valuable contribution to leadership & #Conservative studies. @livunipol.bsky.social
Celebrating my final day of being 32 by hosting an academic workshop at @livunipol.bsky.social for our upcoming book 'The Truss and Sunak premierships: the challenges of party renewal in the post-Johnson Conservative Party', with @andrewcrines.bsky.social.
Celebrating my final day of being 32 by hosting an academic workshop at @livunipol.bsky.social for our upcoming book 'The Truss and Sunak premierships: the challenges of party renewal in the post-Johnson Conservative Party', with @andrewcrines.bsky.social.
MPs voted to legalise assisted dying in England and Wales on June 20. 56 MPs switched their vote between rounds, but how did religion affect their choice? #UoL's @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social investigates in our latest article written for @theconversation.com. 👉 theconversation.com/assisted-dyi...
Assisted dying: 56 MPs switched their vote between rounds – here’s how religion affected their choices
A group of MPs switched their vote between second and third reading, with those identifying as religious more likely to end up opposing the law change.
theconversation.com
Thanks to our brilliant academic speakers @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social @liverpooluni.bsky.social @and Cristina Leston-Bandeira @universityofleeds.bsky.social who spoke at yesterday's Seminar for UK #Teachers: The Work of a Peer with @ukparliament.parliament.uk
Great reps from @livunipol.bsky.social, meeting MPs, journalists, & our brilliant professional #alumni networking in #Westminster! A great way into a professional career is through #postgraduate study, such as our Public Admin Policy MA! www.liverpool.ac.uk/courses/publ... @prfandrwrssll.bsky.social
Following the recent #UK-#EU summit, #Britain is moving closer to the EU again. So why does the idea of Britain rejoining the customs union, single market or the EU itself still seem so unlikely? Mitya Pearson @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social & @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social on @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social
Is the UK-EU reset a step to Britain rejoining the single market?
There is support in the UK for closer relations with the EU, but there remain major obstacles to taking more ambitious steps like rejoining the single market.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
💥 New: Is the UK-EU reset the first step toward Britain rejoining the single market? ✍️ Mitya Pearson @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social & @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social
Is the UK-EU reset a step to Britain rejoining the single market?
There is support in the UK for closer relations with the EU, but there remain major obstacles to taking more ambitious steps like rejoining the single market.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
"What do MPs really think about immigration? We surveyed them to find out" @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social and Mitya Pearson
What do MPs really think about immigration? We surveyed them to find out
Members of the public are more likely than MPs to think immigration has been too high in recent years.
theconversation.com
Ahead of the assisted dying vote on Friday, I'm in @uk.theconversation.com looking at how religion, party, and demographics influenced the 2nd reading vote. Assisted dying bill: religious MPs were more likely to oppose law change in first round of voting theconversation.com/assisted-dyi...
Assisted dying bill: religious MPs were more likely to oppose law change in first round of voting
MPs will soon vote on Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill. Analysis of the second reading shows how religion, identity and party shaped support and opposition.
theconversation.com
Liverpool might seem solidly Labour but Reform could soon become the city's main opposition. This map shows 2nd-placed parties from the 2014/15 local elections - north Liverpool is almost as purple as our wheelie bins (...and might explain Dan Carden’s shift towards blue Labour)
NEW! Delighted to have a new article in Parliamentary Affairs that deals with the topic everyone is talk about - #Badenoch's election as @Conservatives leader! With @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social and Tim Heppell, the article can be found here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a... @livunipol.bsky.social
🚨 We've got a new journal article out analysing bases of support in the Conservative Party leadership election. 🧐The decline of ideology as a key determinant of MPs' voting behaviour is striking. 🤓and since the contest ended in Nov, this is a quick turnaround for academia!
NEW! Delighted to have a new article in Parliamentary Affairs that deals with the topic everyone is talk about - #Badenoch's election as @Conservatives leader! With @drdavidjeffery.bsky.social and Tim Heppell, the article can be found here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a... @livunipol.bsky.social
Quick comparison to the population at large, because I was curious. MPs % first, then Wikipedia's % from combined census data from 2021-22: Christian 54.7 vs 46.53 None 36.4 vs 37.75 Muslim 3.9 vs 5.97 Jewish 2 vs 0.41 Sikh 1.9 vs 0.79 Hindu 0.9 vs 1.59 Buddhist 0.2 vs 0.43
🚨Today, MPs are voting on assisted dying. Religion plays a key role in this debate - but until now, we haven’t had good public* data on MPs’ religious affiliations. So I built a dashboard to fix that: 🔗https://davidjeffery.shinyapps.io/mp-religion/ ⬇️ Here's the breakdown of the religion of MPs
🚨Today, MPs are voting on assisted dying. Religion plays a key role in this debate - but until now, we haven’t had good public* data on MPs’ religious affiliations. So I built a dashboard to fix that: 🔗https://davidjeffery.shinyapps.io/mp-religion/ ⬇️ Here's the breakdown of the religion of MPs
Calling all Disraeli fans 📢📢 Our new edited volume is out now, Open Access! Ft. essays by @jonparryhis.bsky.social @davidjeffery.bsky.social, Peter Ghosh, Freya Johnson, Alex Middleton and many, many more. Please share! journals.openedition.org/cve/15440
101 Printemps | 2025 Benjamin Disraeli (1804‒1881): His Lives and ...
Les articles réunis dans ce volume sont issus du colloque de la SFEVE sur « Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881) : His Lives and Afterlives » organisé les 25 et 26 janvier 2024 par Catherine Marshall, en...
journals.openedition.org
Very glad that my article 'Competing Disraeli-isms: Tory Democracy and One-Nation Conservatism' is now out in Cahiers victoriens et édouardiens (and here's me meeting the man himself in Ormskirk on Saturday) 🔗 doi.org/10.4000/13qsw