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Ben Harris

@econharris.bsky.social

Brookings VP and Director of Economic Studies. Former Assistant Treasury Secretary and Chief Economist to VP Biden. Co-author of The Retirement Challenge.

26 Posts702 Follower0 Folgt
Ben Harris@econharris.bsky.social · last mo.

Expectations over AI’s potential impact on the fiscal outlook should be tempered. I joined Bloomberg’s Balance of Power to discuss this, in addition to concerns about proposals for government ownership stakes in AI companies and what the latest jobs report may be telling us about the economy. Here:

Watch Harris: 'Deeply Uncomfortable' With US Taking OpenAI Stake - Bloomberg

Ben Harris, Vice President and Director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, says Washington should "temper the optimism" that AI can solve the federal deficit, warning any productivity g...

bloomberg.com

Ben Harris@econharris.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New research from me, @neilmehrotra.bsky.social, and William Overcash scoping the potential for AI to shrink long-run fiscal deficits. The optimistic view is that a once-in-a-generation productivity shock could lower annual deficits by ~5% points of GDP—enough to cut primary deficits towards 0. 1/

Line chart titled “Total Deficits as a Percentage of GDP” showing five projections from 2025 to 2036. The y-axis ranges from about 1% to 8% of GDP, and the x-axis shows years. The baseline (black line) rises gradually from about 5.7% in 2025 to around 6.6% by 2036, with a peak near 6.5% in the early 2030s. Traditional productivity (blue dashed line with squares) declines steadily from about 5.7% to roughly 1.6% by 2036. Labor market (red dashed line with triangles) trends downward from about 5.7% to around 4.0%. Health and mortality (green dashed line with diamonds) stays near 5.5–5.9% early on, then declines modestly to about 4.6% by 2036. Combined disruption (purple dashed line with squares) follows a similar downward path, falling from roughly 5.7–5.9% to about 4.0% by the end of the period.
Ben Harris@econharris.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Targeting Russia’s shadow fleet is crucial to weakening its economy and ending its assault on Ukraine. @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and I explain why in our recent op-ed in @kyivindependent.com. Our full analysis with Harold Koh here: www.brookings.edu/articles/sti...

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com · 6mo ago

"This dependence on energy exports is a vulnerability the West has never fully exploited, but Europe is now positioned to crater Russian oil profits without U.S. involvement. The key to doing so is undercutting Russia's shadow fleet," Ben Harris and Robin Brooks write in this op-ed.

Ben Harris@econharris.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Great to visit CAP to debate solutions to the affordability crisis. @tarasinc.bsky.social and I argued against price controls, while finding common ground with @bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social on the need for real action to make life more affordable. Watch:

Center for American Progress@americanprogress.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Starting at 11 am ET: Jared Bernstein will be moderating a panel event on addressing current affordability challenges featuring Bharat Ramamurti, Neale Mahoney, Ben Harris, and Tara Sinclair. https://www.youtube.com/live/vrpm4T9ESGk

Ben Harris@econharris.bsky.social · last yr.

@wendyedelberg.bsky.social and I recently joined @fletcherschool.bsky.social Professor Michael Klein on the @econofact.bsky.social podcast for a chat about the consequences of a rising national debt, and America’s prospects for long-run fiscal solvency. Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/long...

Long Run Fiscal Solvency and Its Consequences | Econofact Chats

Wendy Edelberg and Ben Harris on the likely consequences of rising debt, and its impact on people’s retirement, especially if there are cuts to Social Security.

econofact.org

Ben Harris@econharris.bsky.social · last yr.

ICYMI, I recently discussed the future of Trump’s tariffs on Bloomberg's "Balance of Power," arguing that the tariff pause reflected the power of the bond market as a referee on policy. Watch here: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

Bloomberg: The China Show 04/11/2025

“Bloomberg: The China Show” is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Annabelle Droulers and David Ingles give...

bloomberg.com

Ben Harris@econharris.bsky.social · 2y ago

US Debt is ~100% of GDP, and the debt limit is getting closer. Congress is now marking-up a budget that will take on trillions in new debt. What are the true costs of debt? And should we worry about a fiscal crisis? Read my new paper with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and Louise Sheiner here:

Assessing the risks and costs of the rising US federal debt

While imminent fiscal crisis is unlikely, the large and growing federal debt presents a number of long-term risks.

brookings.edu

Ben Harris@econharris.bsky.social · 2y ago

In a new blog, Robin Brooks and I show that January 10th sanctions on 183 Russian tankers cover a massive 75 percent of oil exports from Russia’s Pacific ports. Despite targeting substantially more ships than all previous Russia sanctions combined, oil prices have barely risen.

More sanctions on Russian oil tankers

Robin Brooks and Ben Harris investigate the oil price effects of the United States' January 2025 sanctions on Russian oil tankers.

brookings.edu