Construction spending is down in only 5 of last 10 qtrs, and is forecast to increase in each of next 6 qtrs, BUT Constant$ spending (spending minus inflation = Constant$ volume) has declined in 8 of last 10 qtrs., a total down -11.5%. and is forecast down each of the next 6 qtrs, total -2.5%.

Some personal news... Today I'm excited to announce the launch of the Housing Frame, a Substack where I'll be analyzing the economy through a housing lens. My debut piece is the Housing Recession is Over. Follow and subscribe here: conorsen.substack.com/p/the-housin...

The Housing Recession is Over

The vibes remain bad, the recovery is uneven, but recession is now behind us

conorsen.substack.com

Not good news. I'm looking at Construction Spending data and my forecast for 2026 is expected down 3.2%. Residential down 5.9% and Nonres Bldgs down 5.0%. Nonbldg UP 4%. Overall, this would be the worst annual performance since 2010. Some recent revisions lowered Rsdn.

A TX framing worker on a KB Homes project died. My question: was that worker (1) afforded the compensation & social insurance (incl workers comp insurance!) afforded to *employees," or (2) off-the-books/misclassified as an independent contractor? My bet's on #2! Why? 1/5 www.kxan.com/top-stories/...

Texans can confirm their voter registration status or request a voter registration form at: www.texas.gov/living-in-te...

Joseph Rezek@rezekjoe.bsky.social · 5d ago

The GOP is an anti-democracy party. They are the voter suppression party. They cannot keep themselves in office fairly and according to democratic principles. BREAKING: Texas suspends more than 1 million voter registrations ahead of midterm elections.

Register to Vote in Texas | VoteTexas.gov share.google/bIU7lTm969XB... Please share this for the Texans! You can check and register all on the same site if they removed you! You need to do it now!

𝕊𝕒𝕝𝕥𝕪𝔹𝕚𝕥𝕔𝕙𝕒𝕓𝕝𝕖𝕤@saltybitchables.bsky.social · 7d ago

As many as 1.2 million Texas voters have until October 5th to update their registrations and can check their status on the Texas Sec. of State’s website, at a county election office, or by mail. #ProudBlue #Texas #Talarico #TexasVoter #registertovote newrepublic.com/post/214832/...

Fellow Texans: verify that your voter registration hasn't been suspended without your knowledge. I just double-checked mine following a link in the article; it took all of 1 minute. Make sure your voice can be heard in November.

Bruce Little@brucedlittle.bsky.social · last wk.

More than 1.2 million Texans are on the state’s Voter Suspense list ahead of the fall’s contentious midterm elections. Texans still have time to check if they’re registered to vote before the October 5 deadline. Here’s how.

Utterly despicable Administration

James Talarico@jamestalarico.bsky.social · last wk.

A 5-year-old Texan just spent the first day of school in an ICE detention center. ICE kidnapped Liam Tadeo on his way to a soccer game with his dad. Liam should be in kindergarten. Instead, our government has thrown him in a prison camp hundreds of miles from home.

If I can't have it, nobody can.

Dean Baker@deanbaker13.bsky.social · last wk.

Pretty brilliant how Trump is taking the Kennedy Center hostage, says he'll tear it down if he can't put his name on it www.usatoday.com/story/news/p... As Trump says, no one has ever seen anything like it before.

A 90,000 SF ballroom! Do you have an idea just how big that is. A football field is 300ft x 150ft = 45,000 sf. This ballroom addition is two football fields.

The construction companies that torn down the East Wing should be barred from ever taking a gov contract again. Where's the potential abatement survey, site conditions survey, historical bldgs commision, people's response, congress approval, authorization to proceed?

When updating all my files this month, couldn't help but notice several government (and some private) issued inflation indices not updated or abandoned. Residential constant value home price index, Structural steel for bridges, IHS Power plant, Concrete pipe, Mortenson Nonres Bldgs, FHWA Highway

Even if Data Center construction spending were to stall right now with no more gains for 2026 but level spending thru year-end, we would finish the year up $66bil, or up 33%.

USB chargable coffee mug. Charge it up and keep that coffee warm bfor an hour. Not to much to ask.

Construction Spending for 2026 is forecast at $2.217 trillion, down 1.2% from 2025. Inflation ranges between 4.3% (Nonres Bldgs) to 4.8% (Infra). Rsdn Inflation is at 4.4%. All sectors actual business volume are being dragged down by inflation. 2026 Volume is forecast down 5.4%.

PPI INPUTS Summary of Construction

The PPI Final Demand (actual price as built) for Nonres bldgs and contractors is 3.7%. Inputs gives us a look at material pricing only. Final Demand includes material, labor, productivity and contractors overhead and profit. Unlike mtrl inputs, most of the Final Demand increase occurred in Jun-Jul.

Ed Z@edzarenski.bsky.social · 3w ago

Construction PPI thru Jul 6.9% Inputs to Nonres Bldgs Constr 5.9% Inputs to Residential Constr 7.3% Inputs to Highway Constr A few items Jul'26 vs Dec'25 67% Diesel 21% Aluminum Shapes 20% Steel Mill Products 11.7% Lumber/Plywood 10.5% Nonferrous Wire and Cable 9.3% Steel Pipe and Tube

Construction PPI thru Jul 6.9% Inputs to Nonres Bldgs Constr 5.9% Inputs to Residential Constr 7.3% Inputs to Highway Constr A few items Jul'26 vs Dec'25 67% Diesel 21% Aluminum Shapes 20% Steel Mill Products 11.7% Lumber/Plywood 10.5% Nonferrous Wire and Cable 9.3% Steel Pipe and Tube

Construction has begun on hundreds of miles of new barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border funded by $47 billion from the President Trump’s signature policy legislation last year. Here’s what to know about the administration’s plans.

See Trump’s Plan to Fill the Gaps in the Border Wall

Construction has begun on hundreds of miles of new barriers funded by $47 billion from the president’s signature policy bill last year.

nyti.ms

A novel—and, no doubt, fleeting—moment of self-awareness.

I don’t agree with all Abdul El-Sayed’s views, but GOP “othering” is a disgrace. He was born in US, educated at Bloomfield Hills Andover, where he captained football team; Univ of Mich; Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar; Columbia, where he earned an MD. Debate his views, not whether he’s a “real” American.

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The Manufacturing Spending Taper Nonres spending in total is declining, in large part due to mega-spending on mnfg bldgs tapering to completion, creating large, but normal, annual declines. This may have the effect of offsetting gains in other nonres bldgs markets. edzarenski.com/2024/11/21/t...

The Manufacturing Spending Taper

11-21-24 My construction spending forecast for 2025 Nonresidential Bldgs is down 1.5%. But this decline is driven by projects ending in Manufacturing. In the last 3 yrs, there were $230bil Mnfg new…

edzarenski.com

A study several years back showed that near 90% of all construction firms engaging in multi-hundred million $ (or even billion $) contracts on a multi-billion $ project are not approved to be bonded for the amounts under contract. What could go wrong?

Construction Spending for 2026, Data Centers gain +$20bil., Mnfg falls -$40bil. If we use an avg of 4000 jobs per $1 bil spending per year, then DC added 80,000 jobs while in Mnfg constr, -160,000 jobs ended. Office constr, 36,000 jobs ended. Highway constr 56,000 new jobs started.

Construction Spending I'm forecasting Data Centers spending will increase at a rate of 3%/mo for 8 of the 9 next months. DC will not post a decline in annual rate in the next 36 months. DC spending gains will overtake Mnfg declines in 2027.

Construction Jobs vs Construction Spending. Jobs growth has been ahead of business volume growthy for more than 2 years. This is added jobs cost without added volume, adds to building cost inflation.

It is outrageous that the United States is practicing straight-up imperialism. It is even more outrageous that our president is bragging about it. The fact that this wasn't page one news today underscores how numb we've become to Trump.

For 2026 nonresidential bldgs construction spending, Data Centers +40%, +$20bil Manufacturing -20%, -$43bil Nothing else even comes close to the impact these two have on overall spending, but also notice, a 40% gain in DC is not enough to offset a 20% decline in Mnfg.

When you read a post about data centers adding construction jobs, for every $1billion in construction it takes an average of 4000 jobs for one year. Ex., a $10 billion data center needs an avg 40,000 jobs for 1 yr, or more like 10,000 jobs for 4 yrs. Jobs start slow. Peak is higher than avg.