Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
@empctmacrotx.bsky.social
Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas (EMPCT): empirical macroeconomic research for academia, policy, the media and the public https://sites.utexas.edu/macro/
New EMPCT opinion piece with Olivier Coibion on the #inflation outlook. As shown in the figure below, the current inflation trajectory is strikingly reminiscent of the late 1970s — and the implications are concerning. #EconSky #oil #oilprice #gasoline More here: tinyurl.com/ycym769x
New blog post by our co-director Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko: @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social Is It 1978 All Over Again? Why Americans Are Right to Expect Much Higher Inflation Short summary and link to full post below.
Very excited that Oli's and Yuriy's book is out. You can get your copy here: tinyurl.com/385ak89u
Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments [Coibion, Olivier, Gorodnichenko, Yuriy] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
tinyurl.com
Yuriy Gorodnichenko@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 4mo agoOur book is finally here!! Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social & me with our advance copies Grateful to everyone who helped along the way—colleagues, students, coauthors, & early readers who shaped the project at every stage Official release tomorrow! tinyurl.com/385ak89u #EconSky
A professional announcement: Oli Coibion, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
Call for papers: sites.lsa.umich.edu/rudib/wp-con... Submit your work #EconSky
sites.lsa.umich.edu
A professional announcement: Oli Coibion, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️ More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD #EconSky
US consumer inflation heats up; weekly jobless claims near four-year high
U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.
reuters.com
How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
New working paper: The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin. Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
New (updated) working paper: The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social . Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social. Short summary below ⬇️
How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac. Short summary follows ⬇️
Now also out as a EMPCT working paper! Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End? New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End? New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
NBER@nber.org · last yr.Unanchored inflation expectations make us very susceptible to another surge in inflation, from Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33858
Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting? Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
NBER@nber.org · last yr.A survey of French firm's inflation expectations that predate inflation spikes provides evidence on the anchoring of expectations during an inflation surge and the relevance of expectations for firms' decisions, from Gautier, Savignac, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w33799
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
NBER@nber.org · last yr.A survey of French firm's inflation expectations that predate inflation spikes provides evidence on the anchoring of expectations during an inflation surge and the relevance of expectations for firms' decisions, from Gautier, Savignac, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w33799
A cautionary take on the rise in inflation expectations in the UMich survey from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social & Olie Coibion at @empctmacrotx.bsky.social... The pandemic "inflation surge experience has further unanchored [household & firm] expectations" sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure). Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅
Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.Conclusion: Expectations of households and firms, following the inflation surge, have settled at new higher levels after the surge than they were prior to the surge. More details in the blog post: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
What's happening with inflation expectations? Two often used household surveys disagree: - the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up - the NY Fed SCE says they're not... Which one is it? New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right! Find out why ⬇️
After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we look forward to an exciting second day!
Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)
The Economics of Trade Bloc Formation: Who Wins from Decoupling? How have recent developments like the US-China trade war, Brexit, or the breakdown of economic ties between the West & Russia affected trade? New blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social & co-authors looks into these questions ⬇️
Congratulations Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social 🥳
The Review of Economic Studies (REStud)@reveconstudies.bsky.social · last yr.The recently accepted paper of Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social demonstrates that shocks that drive the US business cycle also drive the global financial cycle. www.restud.com/the-us-econo...
New working paper by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social and coauthors
Oliver Pfäuti@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social · last yr.We have a new working paper: 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social Short thread below ⬇️ @empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social
Excited to spend AY-25-26 in Munich! Looking forward to lots of European travels :-) @lmumuenchen.bsky.social, thanks for hosting us
How quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes? New blog post: 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Beraja & Adao Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
Our Monetary Policy Conference is in full swing! Kicked off by an inspiring keynote from Olivier Coibion @utaustinecon.bsky.social, we're now in intense parallel sessions, diving deep into the data & discussions. We look forward to more debates today & tomorrow! @cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social
