Direct link to the updated version of my paper: opfaeuti.github.io/website/IAT....

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 12mo ago

New (updated) working paper: The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social . Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social. Short summary below ⬇️

How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac. Short summary follows ⬇️

Now also out as a EMPCT working paper! Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.

Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End? New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.

Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End? New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.

NBER@nber.org · last yr.

Unanchored inflation expectations make us very susceptible to another surge in inflation, from Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33858

It took a while, but we finally have a new (heavily revised) version out: nber.org/papers/w32305

Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting? Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.

New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!

New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!

NBER@nber.org · last yr.

A survey of French firm's inflation expectations that predate inflation spikes provides evidence on the anchoring of expectations during an inflation surge and the relevance of expectations for firms' decisions, from Gautier, Savignac, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w33799

The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure). Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.

Conclusion: Expectations of households and firms, following the inflation surge, have settled at new higher levels after the surge than they were prior to the surge. More details in the blog post: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

What's happening with inflation expectations? Two often used household surveys disagree: - the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up - the NY Fed SCE says they're not... Which one is it? New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right! Find out why ⬇️

After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we look forward to an exciting second day!

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.

Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)

Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)

Highly recommended! "Attention to the Macroeconomy" by Link, Peichl, Pfäuti, Roth, and Wohlfart "...attention to the macroeconomy responds strongly to shocks; more attentive respondents adjust their inflation expectations more frequently during the shock" opfaeuti.github.io/website/Atte...

New working paper by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social and coauthors

Oliver Pfäuti@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social · last yr.

We have a new working paper: 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social Short thread below ⬇️ @empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social

We have a new working paper: 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social Short thread below ⬇️ @empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social

How quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes? New blog post: 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Beraja & Adao Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

New blog post on summarizing the key findings from the paper "𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧fl𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? 𝐀 𝐕𝐨𝐱 𝐏𝐨𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐢 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡" by Coibion and coauthors: tinyurl.com/blogcoibion

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · last yr.

New working paper by our co-director Oli Coibion and co-authors ⬇️ They find that households would sacrifice around 5% of lifetime consumption to eliminate business cycles or inflation. However, these numbers differ across households: exposure, uncertainty, etc., matter!

New working paper by our co-director Oli Coibion and co-authors ⬇️ They find that households would sacrifice around 5% of lifetime consumption to eliminate business cycles or inflation. However, these numbers differ across households: exposure, uncertainty, etc., matter!

UT-Austin Economics@utaustinecon.bsky.social · last yr.

How much would people pay to avoid business cycles? Professor Olivier Coibion and his collaborators answer this question in a new @nber.org working paper.

A quantitative HANK model estimated with linear methods where aggregate uncertainty interacts with the illiquidity friction to drive business cycles and asset returns, from Cosmin L. Ilut, Ralph Luetticke, and Martin Schneider https://www.nber.org/papers/w33331

Oli Cobion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber wrote a new blog post on what Americans expect from the Trump tariffs: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0... Key results: they expect to bear a share of tariffs, firm managers expect to raise prices. Disagreement b/n Dems & Reps, and many more in blog

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas@empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 2y ago

New work by our co-director, Oli Coibion, together with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Michael Weber on the upcoming Trump tariffs ⬇️

Congratulations @nityanayar.bsky.social , Andrei Levchenko and Zhen Huo on your publication of "International Comovement in the Global Production Network" in @reveconstudies.bsky.social 🥳 Link to the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/artic...

Congratulations to Chris Boehm and former UT Austin grad @kronerniklas.bsky.social on getting their paper "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle" accepted at Review of Economic Studies @reveconstudies.bsky.social !🥳 @utaustinecon.bsky.social Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wak4l...

🚨 New data alert! Curious about how people really understand inflation—its causes, impacts & what governments should do about it? 📊 You can dive into the data from our project "People's understanding of inflation" here: socialeconomicslab.org/research/pub... Excited to see new analyses!

People’s Understanding of Inflation - Social Economics Lab

This paper studies people’s understanding of inflation — their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs — and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a new, detailed online survey ...

socialeconomicslab.org

There is *a lot* of useful information in the disagreement that we see in the expectations data. Which of it is useful depends on the question you are asking. Recent references for those interested: -- bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/u... -- personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers...

Ricardo Reis@r2rsquared.bsky.social · 2y ago

Measuring inflation expectations would be futile" *if* there was FIRE. Because people do not have RE, these measurements are potentially very valuable, and it turns out indeed they are very useful data for modeling and forecasting inflation.

🌎Does unilateral decarbonization pay for itself? In our new working paper, @adrienbilal.bsky.social and I analyze whether large economies like the U.S. and E.U. can justify broad decarbonization policies based purely on domestic economic benefits. WP: nber.org/papers/w3336... #econsky

New work by our co-director, Oli Coibion, together with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Michael Weber on the upcoming Trump tariffs ⬇️

Yuriy Gorodnichenko@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 2y ago

A new survey of US households (w/ Michael Weber and Oli Coibion): tinyurl.com/527pnad4 "The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding" Point 1: Americans expect that the incoming Trump administration will apply heavy tariffs (esp for 🇨🇳). #Trump #tariff #EconSky

Congratulations to @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social for his publication in the current issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics JME, co-authored with @klaus-adam.bsky.social and @treinelt.bsky.social! www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...

As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events like the fires in LA pose growing threats to economies. A blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna and @nicomorales.bsky.social discusses how firms adapt supply chains to these risks: tinyurl.com/abbw5mt3

🚨Call for Papers🚨 The next SED meeting will be held June 26-28, 2025, in Copenhagen! Submit your paper here: editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conf... before Feb 15 Julieta Caunedo and I are the Program Chairs

New RePEc feature for Bluesky! Get new paper announcements from NEP in 100 different fields. Find them all on this starter pack bsky.app/starter-pack... and soon the links to the accounts will be at nep.repec.org #RePEc #EconSky

NEP feeds for new economics papers, by field.

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