Hi journalist friends! I wrote a one-pager cheat sheet for covering polling for @aapor.bsky.social! Head it here:
A Journalist’s Guide to Understanding Polls & Surveys - AAPOR
aapor.org
Ence Morse
@ence.bsky.social
data & politics @washingtonpost.com texan in dc 🕯️
Hi journalist friends! I wrote a one-pager cheat sheet for covering polling for @aapor.bsky.social! Head it here:
A Journalist’s Guide to Understanding Polls & Surveys - AAPOR
aapor.org
El-Sayed obviously didn't put up Bernie numbers in rural Michigan. But he held his own in small-town and rural counties, and only lost suburban counties to Stevens by 5 points (!). That, plus his total dominance in Ann Arbor/Grand Rapids/etc, was enough for the win.
I don’t cover elections much these days, but re the MI senate race, El-Sayed actually interviewed *me* (and @sashachavkin.bsky.social) on his America Dissected pod a couple years ago for our reporting on Big Food/influencers/anti-diet trends—it was a great convo! open.spotify.com/episode/75m5...
How Big Food Tries to Co-Opt the Anti-Diet Movement
America Dissected · Episode
open.spotify.com
Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Senate Democratic primary, overcoming an immense spending disadvantage and opposition from party leaders. @ence.bsky.social dug into the data to explain how: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
How El-Sayed won the contentious Michigan Senate Democratic primary
Abdul El-Sayed won with a populist platform buoyed by voter discontent with establishment Democrats and Israel.
washingtonpost.com
The Washington Post investigations team does not mess around -> www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio...
Predatory schools fleeced GI Bill out of more than $300 million in a decade. Institutions defrauded VA and taxpayers, with some teaching how to grow grass and make fake rocks, a Post investigation finds. By Craig Whitlock (and me) wapo.st/4pW9eOt
How predatory trade schools drained $300 million from the GI Bill and failed veterans
Trade schools fleeced VA — and taxpayers — of more than $300 million, often by teaching short and easy courses, a Post investigation finds.
wapo.st
Last week, Obama released his summer reading list, a tradition dating to 2009. Data reporter Ela Jalil analyzed all of the 44th president's reading lists to determine which authors have appeared on his list before: www.washingtonpost.com/books/2026/0...
The authors who show up most often on Obama’s summer reading lists
The 44th president’s reading list is out, and it features some familiar names.
washingtonpost.com
Everyone that Kaela and I talked to for this story (including DDOT) was frustrated–and everyone (including DDOT!) had a point. See where streateries survive, why they needed to change, and how the requirements are shaping the future of dining in DC: dc.citycast.fm/business-dev...
See Where Streateries Survive in D.C. – And Why So Many Disappeared · City Cast DC
Restaurants resisted. The city government dug in. What if everyone was right?
dc.citycast.fm
Former president Joe Biden is undergoing cancer treatment, sharply limiting his post-White House life even as his upcoming memoir threatens to reopen debates on health. President Trump has repeatedly mentioned Biden’s health, according to a Post analysis. https://wapo.st/4vTANJI
Very cool to see this @emilygiam.bsky.social story on the bad math behind parlays in @mattlevine.bsky.social’s newsletter today… still one of my fave data stories ever www.washingtonpost.com/sports/inter...
This is just to say I have OCRed the text thet was in tne arch:ve and whicb yov were prabaldy seamhing for "breahtast" Fargme ms fheg mem debo:w5 sb ?mccf mmb 5c oc1b
How did a false allegation lead to Pete Buttigieg's separation from his kids? Our exclusive reporting shows how authorities did not take steps to vet the caller who left her contact. We found the caller who said she wanted to thwart his White House ambitions. Gift link: wapo.st/45ok5XP
Source of false Buttigieg allegation appeared ‘mentally unstable,’ records show
The Michigan attorney general’s office is investigating how the accusation that prompted the ex-Cabinet secretary's separation from his 4-year-old twins was handled.
washingtonpost.com
It's been hard to do my job this year. Being back reporting — and in print again — means more than I can say. Please spend some time with my story about a Trump administration crackdown on faculty speech at West Point, and one professor's lonely rebellion. wapo.st/4fo0lts
The DNC’s cash gap with the RNC is ~equal to the cash advantage Democratic House and Senate candidates have over their Republican opponents. Lots of evidence that small donors are engaged and just bypassing the national party. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
can my comparative politics folks come up with any other example of the opposition party being $2m in debt when the incumbent government is ~20 points underwater on approval?
This is an extremely useful explainer to party ID and 2024 recalled vote
New at the Strength In Numbers Data Lab: How pollsters weight by party ID is influencing Democrats' midterm standing. Different methodologies give a margin anywhere between D+7 and D+10 (among registered voters — likely even higher among likely voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-23...
People have turned against data centers, but it may take candidates/parties to leverage it. We asked people to describe the most important factors in their midterm vote, and almost nobody mentioned data centers wapo.st/3RT0CeK
it is one of the most interesting issues in american politics, and there are folks in washington who get this and many, many, many who do not.
There is a lot to say about the Nolan Odyssey movie. But one point that I think has not been emphasized enough is: this is a film about living in LA, as Nolan, my erstwhile British compatriot and age mate, has done for years. I gather it’s a strange place.
Just a devastating story from @federicacocco.bsky.social and Shannon Najmabadi today. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Conrad Miles saved about $200,000 for his retirement years, as well as earning a pension with the Santa Fe Railroad. But after he moved into assisted living, his savings were “gone in a heartbeat,” his daughter said. When he died at age 93, he had about $30,000 left. Below: Conrad and Marion Miles
Republicans are heading into the fall campaign season with a lopsided cash advantage across their flagship committees and super PACs. Still, Democrats narrowed the gap with stronger fundraising by individual candidates. Read the full analysis here:
Democrats chip away at GOP cash lead centered on Trump
Republicans stockpiled money from big donors in national groups heading into the fall campaign season, while individual Democrats have drawn on stronger voter enthusiasm.
washingtonpost.com
NEW: Republican megadonors have now spent over $1 billion to influence the 2026 election. washingtonpost.com/elections/in...
MAGA Inc. has $400 million in the bank. The RNC has $128 million, to the DNC's $16 million (and $18m debt). So why are Democrats still up financially in some key races? Because candidates are out-raising their GOP opponents by huge margins with small-dollar donors.
86 people in a single ICE holding room, "all jostling for space in a closet of humanity that smelled of sweat, urine and feces." What would we call it anywhere else? www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...
The power of investigative journalism in holding Big Cat to account
very very excited to be launching Wrong Number with my buds @christinezhang.bsky.social and @jdharden.bsky.social! It’s a newsletter dedicated to all of our weird data obsessions: our first posts cover Law & Order, trees, and theme park accidents wrongnumber.beehiiv.com/p/about-wron...
About ‘Wrong Number’
What this newsletter is, who we are, and why we named it that.
wrongnumber.beehiiv.com
Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” the first feature to be shot entirely on Imax film, is best watched on a 70mm Imax screen. With only 25 theaters in the U.S. offering this experience, eager fans are finding that tickets on eBay are as high as $1,000.
To see ‘The Odyssey’ on Imax, fans pay premiums and brave 3 a.m. showings
Cinephiles are undertaking their own odysseys to watch Christopher Nolan’s retelling of the epic.
washingtonpost.com
Through July 12, ICE had arrested more than 200,000 people in 2026, a more than 40 percent increase compared with the same period last year. www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...
Sixteen months into his second term, Trump is unpopular across a range of sociodemographic groups, including men and women as well as every age, education, income and racial group. From our new Post-Ipsos national poll www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Win For America, the gambling industry super PAC, raised another $29 million last quarter to spend on the midterms: $14.5M from DraftKings, $7.5M from Fanduel, $5.5M from bet365, $1.5M from Fanatics.
Recent deaths — in Houston and Biddeford, Maine — are among at least 17 shootings of motorists by federal immigration officers since the beginning of President Trump’s term nearly 18 months ago, a Washington Post analysis shows.
DHS has shot at least 17 motorists during immigration operations since 2025
These incidents have become more frequent as the Trump administration ramped up enforcement, a Washington Post analysis found.
washingtonpost.com
The Trump brothers have invested in more than a dozen defense tech companies and other firms seeking businesses from the Pentagon and federal agencies, a Post analysis found. Most of the investments have taken place since President Trump’s reelection.
Trump’s sons invest heavily in defense tech as father’s administration pours money in
Most of the investments by funds linked to Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have come since President Donald Trump’s reelection.
washingtonpost.com