Erin Lockwood

@erinkaylockwood.bsky.social

Assistant professor of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine | researching and teaching IPE, financial politics, global inequality | plants, birds, snacks, sci-fi, quilting | poet | she/her https://faculty.sites.uci.edu/erinlockwood/

There are two wolves. One always lies. One controls the lever of trolley track. They're in a state of superposition inside a box. On the trolley are infinite monkeys at infinite typewriters going to an infinite hotel. The trolley must first travel halfway, but before that a quarterway, and so on...

I have so many questions about this photo. Why the reminder of the yen's currency code JPY? For that matter, why the long-form? Surely the Treasury Secretary is familiar with the abbreviations for major currencies? Why is this on a to-do list, like he might forget? What else is on this to-do list?

Bessent's handwritten to-do list from a July 31 cabinet meeting

We're exactly one news cycle away from the administration saying they didn't die *from* cyclosporiasis, they died *with* cyclosporiasis and blaming their preexisting conditions, as if those with chronic illnesses or disabilities do not deserve to be protected from preventable deaths.

Phil Lewis@phillewis.bsky.social · 2d ago

Two people have died from cyclosporiasis in Michigan, marking the first fatalities in the largest U.S. outbreak of the intestinal illness

PALM TREES. They 1) don't provide shade 2) don't compost well 3) the fronds are painful to handle but they still crush your car if you don't cut them off 4) all but one species is non-native in CA 5) the only animals that nest in them are rats 6) they're not even trees, they're a GRASS

in sum: The Fed should absolutely be communicating to the public more than Warsh thinks it should -- but it should also be communicating *more clearly.* Communicating while claiming it's not communicating may be worse than not communicating at all.

Under Warsh, the Fed is committed to a regime of no forward guidance and (at least through December of this year) regular press conferences. What are the consequences of this policy for democratic accountability and financial stability? I jotted down this 2x2 to think through those questions.

2x2 table showing possible combinations of forward guidance and regular press conferences
Going clockwise, Cell I says "Transparent monetary policy with some accountability (via press): markets can price in future interest rate changes + limited public contestation of monetary policy and limited demand for public justification of decisions; crisis-era Fed/Bernanke Fed"

Cell II says "Warsh’s Fed  through Dec. 2026: markets left to guess/hedge future interest rate movements on basis of Warsh’s limited statements: in theory, “pure/unfiltered” market pricing, but markets are still tuning into press conference for information, receiving conflicting signals (hard commitment to 2% target but no rate increases??); creates incentive for Fed to avoid “surprising” the market by contravening their guesses, so Fed follows markets rather than leads"

Cell III says "Monetary policy is a blackbox: possibly what Warsh actually wants? Monetary policy exists to do what markets cannot – but criteria for intervention and rate moves are opaque raising possibility of surprising the market/markets “mispricing” what they cannot know – is this more or less likely than a world with press conferences and no fwd guidance?; (Montagu Norman: never explain, never excuse), pre-1990s Fed; purple traffic cones"

Cell IV says: "Transparent monetary policy but with limited accountability: markets can price in future interest rate changes but no chance for public contestation, no demand for public justification"

Listening to the 7/29 FOMC press conference, I was struck by the tension between Fed Chair Warsh's frequently repeated preference for a less communicative Fed and his commitment to holding press conferences through the end of the year, which strikes me as possibly the worst of all possible worlds.