Excellent!

Frank Harrell@f2harrell.bsky.social · 2w ago

New blog article proposing a general statement of the fundamental question a standard RCT should answer and providing robust and powerful statistical methods to answer it: www.fharrell.com/post/rctmod/ #Statistics #StatsSky #EpiSky #clinicaltrial #rct #pharma @stephensenn.bsky.social

Given that now some reviewers let AI do the job, how can we convince an AI reviewer that was prompted as „your role: grumpy reviewer 2“? (And who prevents them from uploading our ideas, for free, to OpenAI&co?)

This is a lot of people’s bugbear isn’t it

"Real world data" is an almost meaningless phrase. Our new @bmj.com paper pushes the more helpful phrase "routinely collected data" and explains the many limitations of such for research purposes. doi.org/10.1136/bmj-... #Statistics #StatsSky

Several great colleagues published an excellent paper on multiplicity adjustment. Wish it considered that "assertions are too easy" is miscast as multiplicity. See hbiostat.org/bayes/bet/mu... @sabinehoffmann11.bsky.social @gscollins.bsky.social @georgheinze.bsky.social

Doug Altman was an internationally renowned statistician who served as The BMJ’s chief statistical adviser. Read about life and work that made this statistician a "citation millionaire" #BMJChristmas www.bmj.com/content/391/...

A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number: 🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method

They did not do an Initial data Analysis with the data they shared. They could have avoided a lot of trouble if they did. "Data sharing without regrets"... See some recommendations here: doi.org/10.1186/s128...

Regression without regrets –initial data analysis is a prerequisite for multivariable regression - BMC Medical Research Methodology

Statistical regression models are used for predicting outcomes based on the values of some predictor variables or for describing the association of an outcome with predictors. With a data set at hand,...

doi.org

Frank Harrell@f2harrell.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Some of the best data detective work I’ve seen, and embarrassing for @bmj.com

You do not need to see the results in order to write ~2/3 of a quant. research paper in medicine/health.

Idea for a Christmas BMJ paper: submit loads of Christmas BMJ papers, then do a survival analysis of time to rejection. Then submit the survival analysis as a Christmas BMJ paper the following year

This commentary by John B. Carlin expresses many of the concerns that I have always had with 'prognostic factor (finding) studies' and the (weird) definition of 'independent predictors': doi.org/10.1016/j.jc...

There are lots of professional data repositories to share your data (see www.re3data.org) - if you want to share the code as well you can push to github and archive it on zenodo with a DOI.

The distinction between causal, predictive, and descriptive research—there is still room for improvement - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...

Great experience with a novel format of an invited session of #stratos TG2 @biometricsociety.bsky.social Austro-Swiss region meeting (ROeS 2025 Graz) (1/n)

#ISCB46 very nice talk by Michael Kammer on COVID-19 prognostic models, which involved a ‘deep dive’ into the pond life of modelling. Bottom line: “If looking for reliable models, don’t hold your breath.”

Published: the paper 'On the uses and abuses of Regression Models: a Call for Reform of Statistical Practice and Teaching' by John Carlin and Margarita Moreno-Betancur in the latest issue of Statistics in Medicine onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... (1/8)

This is taking statistical education to the next level: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZTL... by Rafael de Andrade Moral, Maynooth University

Summary Song #9 - Overfitting (Stats Parody - Charlie Puth Attention)

YouTube video by The Raf

youtube.com

Continuing our #BlackHistoryMonth series, we celebrate Sean Simpson, Professor of Biostatistics & Data Science, for his contributions to neuroimaging analysis, repeated measures, & covariance modeling. Outside of work, he enjoys time with his wife, statistician Felicia, and their daughter Sophia.

www.bmj.com/content/388/...

PROBAST+AI: an updated quality, risk of bias, and applicability assessment tool for prediction models using regression or artificial intelligence methods

The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) is used to assess the quality, risk of bias, and applicability of prediction models or algorithms and of prediction model/algorithm studies....

bmj.com

It's amazing how far back ideas go. This paper from 1984 by @f2harrell.bsky.social discusses the need for train/test data splits and the importance of assessing model calibration and discrimination and instability in variable selection methods. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

Regression modelling strategies for improved prognostic prediction

Regression models such as the Cox proportional hazards model have had increasing use in modelling and estimating the prognosis of patients with a variety of diseases. Many applications involve a larg...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Five years ago @laurewynants.bsky.social and I started this living review. Within 1 year we reviewed >700 prediction models for COVID and we found many to be poor and decided to stop reviewing. Many external validation studies followed confirming many indeed were poor www.bmj.com/content/369/...

I was just wondering what would have happened if the development had been the other way around. If machine learning had existed beforehand and regression analysis had only been invented afterwards.

I can’t count how many of Ian White’s papers have improved my practice of #Statistics. #StatsSky

We have two vacancies for a postdoctoral and PhD researcher at Maastricht University. They will work on the development and application of value-of-information methods for the validation of clinical risk prediction models and medical AI. links below

Another exciting STRATOS session at #IBC2024ATL

Statistical Thinking Across Borders: Building Bridges and Expanding Horizons in Clinical Biostatistics at the 46th Annual Conference of the ISCB (International Society for Clinical Biostatistics), this time in the Trinational Eurodistrict of Basel, Switzerland, from August 24th to 28th, 2025.

Meeting @marchenrion.bsky.social at the poster session #IBC2024ATL #atlanta #internationalbiometricconference #STRATOS

After many online meetings, it feels great to meet fellow #Stratos colleagues in person #internationalbiometricconference #atlanta

Very exciting to attend a Sander Greenland talk and being lectured on bad practices in epidemiology and biostatistics - and how to do better and change practice in the next generation of researchers. #IBC2024ATL

Great STRATOS TG2 session with @georgheinze.bsky.social at #IBC2024ATL. Another session this afternoon at 2pm.