Some notable exceptions but my impression:

Speak for England, Wayne!

If Burnham is in place by 17 July, then 5 days into the job and he will be leading talks with the EU at the 22 July reset summit

For my friends abroad asking how can Starmer, with his stomping majority, be gone so soon? Below is a good explanation. IMO, Starmer took too long to demonstrate “change” (needed to do so in first 6 months in office), made some big u-turns & some bad decisions 1/2

Dylan Difford@dylandifford.bsky.social · 2mo ago

So how did we get here, with Starmer on the way out after two years? To some extent, it does go back to the beginning. It was not an enthusiastic victory for Labour. Getting rid of the Tories was the top reason people voted for them in 2024, though with their message of 'Change' also resonating.

🍿Makerfield by-election, France’s G7, Iran-US deal, EUCO, Brexit 10 yr anniversary. Lots to share and discuss, but I’m taking time out to focus on important non-work related issues. I’ll be back later this year & do plan to share analyses more regularly. Until then, have a great summer!

fascinated that the PM found out on Tuesday but told neither Cooper nor Jones, who both only found out yesterday it seems? what were no10 doing with the information, if not discussing it with the ministers who oversee the vetting process and the department in question?

Pippa Crerar@pippacrerar.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW: Yvette Cooper only became aware that Peter Mandelson had failed security vetting when approached by Guardian on Thursday, I’m told. Foreign sec then spent evening in FCDO and Downing Street with the PM where she spoke to Sir Olly Robbins. They concluded he could no longer continue in post.

This critique of 🇫🇷 is unwarranted: “A European government official said expectations were very low about [today’s summit on the strait of Hormuz] yielding anything concrete despite the “very French” attempt at organising a grand event” www.ft.com/content/a348... why?

Macron and Starmer to hold summit on plan to secure Strait of Hormuz

French and UK leaders are expected to brief Donald Trump after meeting on Friday

ft.com

🇭🇺🥳

Trump threatening to pull out of NATO. This wd be terrible for Europe, yet European leaders are keeping quiet. Why? 1) Never overreact: Trump has a habit of backtracking. EU has learned to wait before responding. 2) Scenario-plan: European leaders will be exploring options, while engaging US/NATO.

Good piece in FT detailing Macron's speech on French nuclear deterrence. Confirms that FR will: 1) Increase arsenal (without providing exact numbers as per FR doctrine) 2) For 1st time, talks of deploying strategic assets abroad (but as @hfayet.bsky.social notes: priority is on aircraft...) 1/3

Possibly. Or this was always a US-Israel (or US nudge for Israel to join) attack.

Peter Ricketts@lordrickettsp.bsky.social · 5mo ago

My line on BBCr4 Today on the Iran strikes was this. Last June there were intensive US/Iran talks under way. Aborted by Israeli strikes on Iran which US joined. I think this is similar. The US-Iran-Oman talks seemed to be going well. Netanyahu preempted, and Trump felt he had to follow 1/5

And yet, no-one should be surprised. Strike when the regime is at its weakest is definitely textbook Trump.

Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social · 5mo ago

On an even more serious note, the speech by Trump seems absolutely maximalists in its aims: - Attack all Iranian military facilities - Attack all of its Iran's proxies (so a further regional ambition) - Calling on Iranians to use the attack for regime change

Unless your calculation is that Iran is pretty weak & may choose to attack a US army base — which would then, of course, justify US intervention.

Duncan Weldon@duncanweldon.bsky.social · 5mo ago

I’m slightly surprised the US & Israel have launched this bombing campaign in day time rather than overnight.

Great thread of what a multi-speed Europe means in practice. It’s the key thing to come out of y’day’s informal EU summit on competitiveness: MS have given EU Commission the green light to explore different formats to move fwd on competitiveness& expect it to present a plan at March European Council

Thu Nguyen@onethuthree.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Two-speed Europe, coalitions of the willing, core Europe - all different labels currently circling in the debate for same idea that way forward is no longer at EU27. But the how is important, and I think different people understand different things by the concept. Quick thread on legal options:

French trolling is just superb.

France's influence in Europe has declined since Macron dissolved Assemblée Nationale in June 2024. Two exceptions stand out: Ukraine and now Greenland, where Paris has been key in forging a strong European response. My thoughts for @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/w...

Sunglasses, and Stormy Times, Lift France’s Embattled Leader

nytimes.com

And here we go again... this time on 2 February in London: www.ft.com/content/2be6...

UK and EU to renew talks on defence fund access

Talks that are due to take place next month take on fresh urgency after the transatlantic rupture in Davos

ft.com

Good thread on new Franco-German report on how to get more capital flowing to support European start-ups & scale-ups. Don't think 28th regime is the answer (too politically fraught) -- and agree the solution lies in allowing pension funds/others to do more risk-taking (but also politically tricky)

Marlene Schörner@marleneschoerner.bsky.social · 6mo ago

You may have missed it amidst the chaos of the last few days, but there is a new high-level EU report in town: A Franco-German task force led by Jörg Kukies and Christian Noyer presented recommendations to tackle the scale-up financing gap. Here is what it says and why you should care about it.

Trump’s threats since start of yr have changed thinking in Brussels. Doubt EU leaders will decide tonight to slap tariffs & cut market access — but they will ask EU Commission to accelerate thinking on retaliatory measures just in case US changes its mind. Better to be prepared than caught off guard

The reality, I think, was both. Soft diplomacy by some & willingness to go hard if that failed. And discussions with US business at Davos, I assume.

Dave Keating@davekeating.substack.com · 6mo ago

What we saw from the leaders as they came into this 🇪🇺#EUCO summit is that everyone has their own interpretation of what happened over the past 24 hours. The Meloni camp thinks it was calm negotiation that saved the day. The Macron camp think it was Europe showing its teeth.

This, by @sophiabesch.bsky.social, is excellent & perfectly captures the Greenland debate in D.C. and in Brussels. Sophia's warnings are right: Europe must wake up & do more. I think it will -- and that Davos has significantly altered EU thinking on the US: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The Greenland Episode Must Be a Lesson for Europe and NATO

They cannot return to the comforts of asymmetric reliance, dressed up as partnership.

carnegieendowment.org

The market had assumed that Trump wdn’t go through with threat and/or that Europe wd not respond. But last few weeks have changed Brussels’ approach to US administration. The feeling is that the President’s words cannot be fully trusted & that all responses must now be seriously considered.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 7mo ago

Trump: "Based upon a very productive meeting I had with Mark Rutte, we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region. This solution, if consummated, will be a great one... Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs"

💯. Hence why it would be wrong not to prepare a strong European response.

Listening to current speech at Davos. I feel so tired…

US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Why the Trump administration is going to Davos. Are they planning to announce something tomorrow?

No-one, I repeat, no-one should be surprised by US strikes on #Venezuela. Why? Quick thread.

I very much agree with your comments as quoted here. It is fascinating to see the shifting roles of Germany and France in EU debates. But at least they were able to come together on a solution to Ukraine financing. My question is how will the UK contribute to the overall effort on this new basis?

Georgina Wright (on leave)@georginaewright.bsky.social · 8mo ago

The EU faces many challenges. Paradoxically, at a moment when the Union has never felt more French — with member states leaning into security and industrial policy — France’s positive & catalysing influence is absent. Highly recommend this excellent @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/99d2...

The EU faces many challenges. Paradoxically, at a moment when the Union has never felt more French — with member states leaning into security and industrial policy — France’s positive & catalysing influence is absent. Highly recommend this excellent @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/99d2...

Role reversal: how foot-dragging France blindsided newly assertive Berlin

As Friedrich Merz pushed to finalise a deal on Russian frozen assets, it became clear that he was missing one key ally

ft.com

How can the EU build stronger resilience amid global power shifts & unprecedented threats to its democracy, economy, security? Join us on 10 Dec for a discussion w/ excellent speakers @dschwarzer.bsky.social @shahinvallee.bsky.social @georginaewright.bsky.social www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...

Is it though? It had been on the cards though during negs - until UK refused dynamic alignment/SPS. Remember Barnier's staircase? EU's position has always been "full access = accept EU rules" or "partial access = mix of EU rules + financial contribution". Just ask Switzerland.

Matthew Holehouse@matthewholehouse.bsky.social · 9mo ago

A passage that does indeed read rather differently to the "indivisibility of the internal market" positions of the past