ركضةٌ مع شروق الشمس في فاس… بين أسوار مدينةٍ صمدت لأكثر من ألف عام، حيث يهمس التاريخ مع كل خطوة. 🏃♂️🌅
Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @EY @EY-Parthenon President @National Association for Business Economics Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit Judo Black Belt Football player & @ManCity Once-a-year triathlete Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
Markets penalize inconsistency, not policy There has been some confusion around the sharp rise in long-term interest rates following Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference… www.linkedin.com/pulse/market...
Markets penalize inconsistency, not policy
There has been some confusion around the sharp rise in long-term interest rates following Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference, with some commentators suggesting that the move in yields reflected Warsh’...
linkedin.com
Warsh Considers Reducing Frequency of Fed Policy Meetings via @colbylsmith.bsky.social and @bencasselman.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/b...
Warsh Considers Reducing Frequency of Fed Policy Meetings
The Federal Reserve has met at least eight times a year for decades. Reducing the number of meetings would represent the biggest change by Kevin M. Warsh since he became chairman.
nytimes.com
⚠️ Dallas Fed Pres Logan explains dissent saying "modest action in the near term would reduce the likelihood of needing to take sharper action later" because inflation trending toward mid-2%, sees upside risks & she doesn't see policy as sufficiently restrictive www.dallasfed.org/news/release...
Statement from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on FOMC dissent
President Lorie Logan says inflation does not appear to be on course to sustainably achieve the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2 percent target.
dallasfed.org
US Employment Cost Index Labor market DIS-#inflation 📊ECI +0.9% q/q ✅Wage & salaries +0.9% ✅Benefits +1.0% 💰Wages & salaries ✅Private +0.9% q/q ✅ State & local +0.9% q/q 📉#Inflation ⤵️ECI 3.4% y/y (flat): low since '21 ⤵️Private wages 3.1% y/y (-0.3pt): pre-Covid pace
US Employment Cost Index Labor market DIS-#INFLATION 📊ECI +0.9% q/q ✅Wage & salaries +0.9% ✅Benefits +1.0% 💰Wages & salaries ✅Private +0.9% q/q ✅ State & local +0.9% q/q 📉#Inflation ⤵️ECI 3.4% y/y (flat): low since '21 ⤵️Private wages 3.1% y/y (-0.3pt): pre-Covid pace
⚠️ @minneapolisfed.bsky.social President Kashkari explains his dissent in favor of a 25bps to manage the "risk that high inflation could become entrenched" (which isn't the case today) adding "small policy steps" would prevent the risk of bolder moves later
Minneapolis Fed@minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 5d agoStatement on my #FOMC Dissent A gradual tightening of policy now is preferable to a bolder action later Read President Kashkari's full statement here: https://bit.ly/4w0EHQO #EconSky
AI is a huge DRAG on the US economy... and an enormous BOOST to private sector activity...
⚠️Real disposable income rebounded in June, but the income/spending gap has widened over past 2 years: Spending is increasingly financed by savings, credit and wealth...
The yen surged by more than 3% against the US dollar, marking its biggest jump since December 2023 and stoking speculation that Japanese officials again intervened in the market. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US #inflation eases on temp relief from Middle East conflict 📆June 2026 ✅Headline PCE prices: -0.11% m/m ✅Core PCE prices: +0.13% m/m 🎯Inflation moving toward #Fed 2% target ⏬Headline PCE inflation: 3.7% (-0.4pt) ⏬Core PCE inflation: 3.3% (-0.1pt)
Consumer spending resilience in June 🛒Consumer spending +0.3% ✅Inflation-adj +0.4% 💵Disposable income +0.2% ✅Inflation-adj +0.3% 🏦Savings rate: 2.7% (-0.1pt): Low since '22⚠️ 📈PCE #inflation ⬇️Headline inflation: 3.7% (-0.4pt) ⬇️Core inflation: 3.3% (-0.1pt)
US economy maintains moderate momentum Real #GDP ✅+1.5% q/q ✅+2.1% y/y 🛒Cons solid +3.2% 👩💻Biz invest +8.4%: big AI-led gains 🏘️Resid invest 1.5% (first gain since '24) 📦Trade -1.0pt: imports surge 🏗️Inventories -0.7pt 🏦Gov -0.8% 📈PCE #Inflation 🔺3.8% y/y 🔺Core 3.3% y/y
J.P. Morgan’s Feroli on Fed chair Warsh’s presser: “It's hard to know what to make of Warsh’s remarks, which involved a lot of well-turned phrases but little in the way of a coherent macro view.”
Can’t recall reading such brutal commentary of a fed chairman as the street is laying on Warsh today. JPM’s Feroli: he “…once again failed to specify how he intended to achieve his stridently asserted inflation resolve” and failed to support pce as the target in the medium term.
So interesting that after all of the noise around the #Fed may hike -- markets were pricing an unusually elevated 35% prob -- the Fed stays put and remains cryptic as to its reaction function & rationale for staying put in July.
Everyone is watching what Warsh says at 2:30 tomorrow. Watch what the committee says at 2:00. The FOMC statement is where compromises get forged. I mocked up one I think they could agree to, redlined from June. New post: stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/making-a-s...
Making a Statement
The FOMC statement, not the press conference, may be the best window into where the Fed is headed. Here's my mockup for Wednesday.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
🥇Record attendance, outstanding discussions, and a well-deserved NABE Fellow recognition for Dr. Raphael Bostic, former President of the @atlantafed.org ! Grateful to everyone who made this year’s @nabe-econ.bsky.social Foundation Economic Measurement Seminar a success!
👀 Kevin Warsh Wanted a ‘Good Family Fight’ at the Fed. He’s Getting One via @nicktimiraos.bsky.social www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Great session with @davidmwessel.bsky.social at @nabe-econ.bsky.social Economic Measurement Seminar « The ability to express yourself clearly, both in writing and verbally, is one of the most marketable skills » in the AI era
The July #FOMC meeting is shaping up as unusually enigmatic with #Fed Chair Warsh’s communication void filled by a growing chorus of policymakers defining their own reaction functions. Tariffs, Middle East conflict & AI: policy response needed? what prescription? www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
Who is holding the reins? | Gregory Daco
The July #FOMC meeting is shaping up as unusually enigmatic, with Chair Warsh’s communication void filled by a growing chorus of policymakers defining their own reaction functions. Even the announceme...
linkedin.com
More evidence, courtesy of @ernietedeschi.bsky.social, that AI isn't really showing up yet as stronger productivity at an industry or economy-wide level. www.stripeeconomics.com/p/ai-and-pro...
A pleasure to join @cnbc.com Fast Money to discuss why I believe the Middle East conflict is a catalyst—not the cause—of higher bond yields. The upward pressure on long-term rates remains structural via @EY_Parthenon @EY_US cnb.cx/4fiYgir
EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Daco on what yield spike says about the U.S. economy
EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco joins 'Fast Money' to talk what recent moves in the bond market is signaling.
cnb.cx
🚨 Making tariffs permanent ⚠️ US will collect duties of at least 10% on imports from most major trading partners (~60) for alleged failure to prevent forced labor in their supply chains under Section 301. ⚠️ Offset the expiring Section 122 global 10% tariff. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Sets New Forced-Labor Duties as Trump Resurrects Tariff Wall
The US will collect duties of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners, its biggest move yet to reconstruct President Donald Trump’s tariff wall that was pierced by the Suprem...
bloomberg.com
🚨 Making tariffs permanent ⚠️ US will collect duties of at least 10% on imports from most major trading partners (~60) for alleged failure to prevent forced labor in their supply chains under Section 301. ⚠️ Offset the expiring Section 122 global 10% tariff. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Sets New Forced-Labor Duties as Trump Resurrects Tariff Wall
The US will collect duties of at least 10% on imports from most major trading partners, its biggest move yet to reconstruct President Donald Trump’s tariff wall that was pierced by the Supreme Court.
bloomberg.com
🚨Initial jobless claims fell to 187k: lowest since September 1969. ⚠️Seems like it's more noise than signal with @econberger.bsky.social pointing to a potential seasonal adjustment issue. 📈Overall, stable labor market conditions, & more reason for Fed policymakers to focus on inflation
President Christine Lagarde said she doesn’t want to be pinned down on the timing of her exit from the European Central Bank, but it won’t be before the end of this year www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lagarde Says She’s Staying at the ECB at Least Until Year End
President Christine Lagarde said she doesn’t want to be pinned down on the timing of her exit from the European Central Bank, but it won’t be before the end of this year.
bloomberg.com