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Hamidreza Azizi

@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social

Senior Iran Analyst at the International Crisis Group http://linkedin.com/in/hamidreza-azizi-fp

25 Posts1346 Follower 142 Folgt

Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 24h ago

“Iran’s Axis of Resistance is still here. But recent wars have exposed its limits and the model has shifted.” Our Senior Analyst on Iran, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, explains how Iran has shifted its strategy after three years of conflict in the Middle East.

Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 16h ago

🎙️ On Hold Your Fire!, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social explains how Houthi advances in Yemen and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure may serve Iran’s efforts to pressure Washington, but also carry risks for Tehran.

Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 4d ago

NEW COMMENTARY | How War is Reshaping Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social explains how three years of hostilities have transformed Tehran’s network of allies in the Middle East. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...

How War is Reshaping Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” | International Crisis Group

Three years of hostilities have transformed Tehran’s network of allies in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic is now relying more heavily on itself, while adapting its relationships with partners wh...

crisisgroup.org

Chris Osieck @chrisosieck.bsky.social · 2w ago

Finished reading @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social’s book and I highly recommend others to also read it, especially if you work on the Middle East as an analyst, journalist, or open source investigator.

The Axis Of Resistance by Hamidreza Azizi.

Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 2mo ago

467/ The US discourse cycle is no longer interested in the Iran war But summer is over. And the two countries have restarted attacks after a month of no attacks. This is good analysis of the new round of escalation by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social x.com/HamidRezaAz/...

Rima I Anabtawi @rimaanabtawi.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Trump is betting economic pressure will weaken Iran without another war. But Tehran may conclude that waiting only leaves it weaker, making escalation paradoxically more likely, argues @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social time.com/article/2026...

Dire Strait: Why Economic Threats Might Escalate the War in Iran

"Instead of unclogging Hormuz and bringing Iran to heel, Washington’s so-called “economic D-day” might drive Tehran to double down," writes Hamidreza Azizi.

time.com

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)@swp-berlin.org · 3mo ago

"Iran cannot strike American assets in Gulf states indefinitely while expecting those states to put up with the attacks. Tehran must choose between a region organized around coexistence and one it hopes to dominate", writes @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @swp-mea.bsky.social. time.com/article/2026...

Why Iran Cannot Fight a Forever War

"Iran has disrupted global energy supplies and imposed costs on the United States and its allies, but it is not clear how it can remain in a permanent state of war," writes Hamidreza Azizi.

time.com

DER SPIEGEL @spiegel.de · 3mo ago

Droht im Irankrieg die nächste Eskalation? Der Politikwissenschaftler Hamidreza Azizi erklärt, welche Optionen beide Seiten nun haben, wie es in der Straße von Hormus weitergehen könnte und wie es den Menschen in Iran geht.

Irankrieg: »Dass Benjamin Netanyahu wieder in Washington ist, erhöht das Risiko«

spiegel.de

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)@swp-berlin.org · 3mo ago

»Eines Tages wird es Veränderungen in Iran geben«, sagt @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @swp-mea.bsky.social im @spiegel.de-Interview. »Aber die werden eher aus inneren Dynamiken entstehen - und nicht aus einem von außen aufgezwungenen Krieg.« (Paywall) www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran...

(S+) Iran-Krieg: »Dass Benjamin Netanyahu wieder in Washington ist, erhöht das Risiko«

spiegel.de

Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 3mo ago

432/ US strikes prep for Ground invasion? "...current indicators suggest that we may be approaching the most significant escalation in the U.S.-Iran confrontation since February, driven by Washington’s failure to achieve its strategic objectives" - @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social x.com/HamidRezaAz/...

Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Excellent analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on X suggesting the current US strike pattern may be setting the stage for ground troops to seize Iran's southern coastal area. If accurate, this may not just be another round of attacks before more talks but an attempt to solve Hormuz through force.

SWP Africa & Middle East @swp-mea.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Im Podcast #HiddenForces analysiert @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social die langfristigen Folgen des Krieges: Machtverschiebungen in Iran, die Zukunft der Hisbollah, das Verhältnis USA–Israel & mögliche Szenarien für eine neue regionale Ordnung. 👇 hiddenforces.io/podcasts/end...

A New Balance of Power in the Middle East | Hamidreza Azizi

Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian foreign policy, discusses the prospects for peace between the US and Iran and what it means for the emergence of a new balance of power in the Middle East.

hiddenforces.io

SWP Africa & Middle East @swp-mea.bsky.social · 4mo ago

(5/6) Für #CarnegieEurope diskutieren #AzadehZamirirad & @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social Azizi die Rolle Europas. Zamirirad sieht das Atomabkommen von 2015 weiterhin als Maßstab erfolgreicher Diplomatie. Azizi betont, dass Europa seine Rolle neu definieren muss. 👇 carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Taking the Pulse: Is European Diplomacy on Iran Outdated?

When the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was announced, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy declared their readiness to help demine the Strait of Hormuz and lift nuclear sanctions. But does Europ...

carnegieendowment.org

SWP Africa & Middle East @swp-mea.bsky.social · 4mo ago

"The “ambiguous” nature of the agreement text could create problems further down the road", @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social for TIME about the peace agreement between Iran and the US 👇 time.com/article/2026...

Trump Champions Peace Agreement, Threatens to Resume Bombing If Iran Doesn't Comply

In closing remarks at the G7 summit in France, Trump threatened to restart the war if Iran fails to comply with the terms laid out in the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding.

time.com

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)@swp-berlin.org · 5mo ago

"Die iranische Führung sieht als ihr wichtigstes Instrument definitiv die Blockade der Straße von Hormus: Sie hält die Lage dort angespannt, damit die Energiepreise hoch bleiben und die USA unter Druck", so @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social im Interview mit @zeit.de www.zeit.de/politik/deut... (Paywall)

Irankrieg: »Die Forderungen nach der Bombe sind zurück«

Sind die USA und der Iran neuen Kämpfen näher als einem Deal? Iranexperte Hamidreza Azizi über die neue Form der Kriegsführung und wo der Iran seine Stärken sieht

zeit.de

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 5mo ago

the news all accords pretty well with this excellent overview of the strategic situation from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social the gaps between Iran and the US positions have solidified and both sides have been edging toward re escalation for a while now open.substack.com/pub/irananal...

Is a New Round of War Becoming Inevitable?

Tehran Expects a Different Kind of War

open.substack.com

SWP Africa & Middle East @swp-mea.bsky.social · 5mo ago

@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social im Interview mit der Zeit: "Die iranische Führung geht davon aus, dass sie noch einige Monate durchhalten kann und Trump nicht." Das ganze Intervie gibt es hier (Paywall) 👇 www.zeit.de/politik/deut...

Irankrieg: »Die Forderungen nach der Bombe sind zurück«

Sind die USA und der Iran neuen Kämpfen näher als einem Deal? Iranexperte Hamidreza Azizi über die neue Form der Kriegsführung und wo der Iran seine Stärken sieht

zeit.de

SWP Africa & Middle East @swp-mea.bsky.social · 5mo ago

How have the U.S.-Israel war on Iran & shifting Gulf alliances reshaped the Middle East? @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social discusses the restructuring of the “Axis of Resistance,” Gulf fragmentation & Iran’s evolving regional strategy in CR Amplified🎧👇 www.thecairoreview.com/podcasts/the...

The Axis of Resistance and Shifting Gulf Alliances—with Dr. Hamidreza Azizi: CR Amplified ep. 9

How has the recent U.S.-Israel war on Iran shifted the balance of power in the Middle East? Dr. Hamidreza Azizi joins CR Amplified to discuss the restructuring of the Axis of Resistance, the fracturin...

thecairoreview.com

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)@swp-berlin.org · 5mo ago

"The system has effectively assembled a wartime coalition of military, security, and political leaders around Mojtaba." @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @swp-mea.bsky.social examines the transition of power in Iran and explores how the new leadership is beginning to take shape. time.com/article/2026...

The New Leaders Calling the Shots in Iran

"What has emerged in Iran is a different architecture of leadership, where power is exercised through institutions and networks that have reconfigured themselves to meet the demands of war and prolong...

time.com

SWP Africa & Middle East @swp-mea.bsky.social · 6mo ago

How could the war in Iran end? @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social discusses the conflict’s origins, possible scenarios & Iran’s Axis of Resistance in the Sky News Podcast. Listen to the full podcast now 👇 news.sky.com/story/how-do...

How does the war in Iran end?

<a href=' https://podfollow.com/the-world-with-richard-and-yalda'>👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈</a>

news.sky.com

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)@swp-berlin.org · 6mo ago

The Iranian state is not divided between civilian and military camps. It is a system in transition that is trying to manage war, diplomacy, and internal competition simultaneously, writes @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @swp-mea.bsky.social in an article for Time Magazine: time.com/article/2026...

Iran’s Supreme Leader No Longer Reigns Supreme

"Since the war, the Islamic Republic has been operating less as a hierarchy organized around a single dominant figure and more as a hardline coalition trying to manage war, diplomacy, and internal com...

time.com

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 6mo ago

essential update from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on the progress of talks between the US and Iran probably worth breaking down in some detail 1) regime sources in Iran are claiming the Lebanon ceasefire was a success of high-risk Iranian diplomacy and military threats x.com/HamidRezaAz/...

🔹 Since yesterday, multiple developments suggest Tehran and Washington may be inching toward a deal. But rather than a breakthrough moment, what we may be seeing is a carefully staged, incremental process.

🔹 Starting with Lebanon, Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire there aligns with a key Iranian demand that any U.S.-Iran arrangement extend across the region, including the Hezbollah front.

🔹 This linkage was initially rejected by Israel, which escalated operations in Lebanon to preserve freedom of action. The shift toward a ceasefire likely reflects external pressure from the U.S., involving mediation by Pakistan and others.

🔸 One interpretation is that Donald Trump ultimately pushed Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire to remove a major Iranian red line and enabling diplomatic movement.

🔸Iranian sources suggest Tehran made it explicit that no second round of talks with the U.S. while Lebanon remained active. Some accounts go further, saying that Iran had warned it would resume strikes, including against Israel, if no ceasefire emerged.

🔸Publicly, Trump denies any linkage between Lebanon and Iran talks. But it is difficult to see the ceasefire as entirely disconnected from progress on the diplomatic track.

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 6mo ago

as usual the @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social update on the war from Iranian sources is a must-read there are real hopeful signs here -- substantive talks and a plausible way through to a nuclear deal, but Hormuz, Lebanon and the positivity of future US/Israeli attacks still at issue x.com/i/status/204...

x.com

Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 6mo ago

If @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social is right and Hormuz has evolved into a more important source of leverage for Iran than the nuclear program, does that open up possibilities for negotiating a resolution on the nuclear front that were not apparent before the war?

Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Very good on Iran’s evolving view of the Hormuz Strait, by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social. www.irananalytica.org/p/why-iran-w...

Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Very good on Iran’s evolving view of the Hormuz Strait, by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social. www.irananalytica.org/p/why-iran-w...

irananalytica.org

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 7mo ago

from the @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social daily update on the war based on Iranian sources Iranian regime and state media continues to insist upon extremely harsh terms for ending the war and these terms continue to include the formalization of Iranian control over Hormuz x.com/i/status/203...

🔹Iranian reporting highlighted continued drone and missile operations under “Operation True Promise 4.” The political messaging accompanying the strikes is intended to demonstrate sustained offensive capacity and counter perceptions that prolonged strikes have degraded Iran’s ability to retaliate.

🔹Iranian official media continue to stress that any agreement to stop the conflict must include a permanent end to the war, compensation for damages, and recognition of Iran’s position regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This confirms that Tehran is framing the war’s end not as a restructuring of strategic equations in the region.

🔹Iran also continues to insist that the Lebanon front must be included in any settlement. This reflects a continued effort to prevent compartmentalization and to preserve the integrated nature of its regional network in any post-war arrangement.

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 7mo ago

really useful nuance in the latest @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social update on the war from Iranian sources -public statements by Iranian leaders refuse to credit the new American messaging on negotiations -but Iran's deterrence messaging toward the Gulf has become more restrained x.com/HamidRezaAz/...

🔹Trump’s public suggestion that a deal may be near was not received in Tehran as a sign of diplomatic progress. Iranian officials, led publicly by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, portrayed it as fake news designed to manipulate oil and financial markets and to help Washington and Israel escape a strategic quagmire of their own making. This is also the dominant narrative within the pro-government expert community.

🔹That perception matters because it shows that, in the Iranian narrative, Trump’s talk of “productive conversations” is being folded into the war itself as a form of psychological and economic warfare. The IRGC explicitly said such contradictory U.S. behavior would not affect Iran’s conduct on the battlefield or the continuation of combat operations.

🔹At the same time, Iran’s formal deterrence message became more restrained. After earlier rhetoric about potential targeting of water infrastructure, the narrative shifted to a cleaner tit-for-tat formula, warning that any strike on Iran’s electricity infrastructure would trigger direct retaliation against Israeli power plants and facilities supplying U.S. bases.

🔹This is an important refinement in Iran’s strategic narrative. Tehran appears to be trying to preserve escalation credibility while reducing the political costs of openly threatening civilian water systems in Gulf states, thereby keeping regional audiences from moving more decisively into the anti-Iran camp.

🔹Iran also reiterated that passage through the Strait of Hormuz for non-belligerent states requires coordination with Tehran. The accompanying Defense Council warning that any attack on Iran’s coasts or islands would lead to sea-mining and the effective closure of the wider Persian Gulf shows that Tehran is still presenting maritime control as one of its main coercive tools.

SWP Africa & Middle East @swp-mea.bsky.social · 7mo ago

@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social spricht im Podcast Hidden Forces über die militärischen, politischen und gesellschaftlichen Dimensionen des Iran-Krieges – von strategischen Zielkonflikten bis zu möglichen Eskalationspfaden. 🎧Jetzt anhören: hiddenforces.io/podcasts/ira...

America’s Gamble: Regime Change, Retreat, or State Collapse

Hamidreza Azizi describes how the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran has evolved and what the conflict's trajectory reveals about the competing strategic objectives driving it.

hiddenforces.io

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 7mo ago

this from the @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social daily update remains the thing I think that particularly markets discourse on the war hasn't accounted for yet Iran consistently says their core war aim is a new security arrangement, with control over Hormuz as a means to achieve it x.com/i/status/203...

Iran has again rejected reports of backchannel contacts with the United States. Iranian state media and officials say Washington is signaling openness to negotiations mainly to calm energy markets, while Tehran insists that no credible agreement capable of protecting its long-term interests is currently on the table.

🔹Iranian leaders also stress that the region will not return to the pre-war status quo, and that the new regional order will be in line with Iran’s interests. Some officials have reportedly suggested that any future negotiations could include demands related not only to Iran itself but also to the security of regional partners such as Hezbollah.

alina @ramshackle78.bsky.social · 7mo ago

These daily updates from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on how Iranian regimes sees things have been very on point