Hampton Gaddy
@hggaddy.bsky.social
Demographer | PhD student @lseechist.bsky.social | Incoming postdoc @magdalenoxford.bsky.social | Usually working on the 1918 flu | he/him | https://hggaddy.github.io/
I can't make heads or tails of this analysis (in the Guardian today). The methods section is one paragraph. Putting aside assumptions about health econ and NHS decision making, it doesn't seem to consider population growth, ageing, or mortality displacement... (1/7) www.bmj.com/content/394/...
!["The population costs of this deal will be the excess deaths that can be avoided if the resources required are not devoted to paying more for new medicines. These are called the “health opportunity costs” (fig 2). They are estimated by combining the published causal estimates with projected NHS expenditure and local mortality data from 2024-25. [ref 16]"](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lvo45tc2jcwhui5ibx4364el/bafkreidnslqlythbckmskoh7sdadt6ini7titkcpuu54rd3c33iu4euzoe)
A paper based on my master's thesis is out this morning in PDR! It offers a new way of theorising and estimating "demographic memory". In a week of heatwaves and political instability in the UK, these toy examples work as a nice graphical abstract 🌡️ onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
New research from a team I was part of w Lauren Steele, @andreatilstra.bsky.social, & other virologists & demographers: Research on flu pandemics has been heavily shaped by 1) the 1918 flu & 2) US-specific data for other pandemics. Turns out that way understates the variety of age patterns of risk!
Age-specific mortality patterns across influenza pandemics: evidence from all-cause mortality data across multiple populations
AbstractBackground. Understanding age-specific mortality patterns across historic influenza pandemics is crucial for future pandemic preparedness. Prior re
academic.oup.com
Really pleased to see our global stunting data up on our world in data. We hope it helps people contextualise child stunting in a much longer historical lens. Thanks to Hannah and Tuna for visualising and explaining the data so well! The link to the original paper is here: doi.org/10.1136/bmjg...
doi.org
Our World in Data@ourworldindata.org · 3mo ago✍️ New article: “Childhood stunting fell dramatically over the 20th century” One in four children in the world today suffers from “stunting”. That’s 150 *million* children under five. A stunted child is too short for their age due to poor nutrition and frequent infections.
Couldn't have done this without great data (@ipums.bsky.social) and great co-authors (@rebeccasear.bsky.social, @anthrolog.bsky.social)!
IPUMS@ipums.bsky.social · 3mo agoIPUMS International Student Award is a tie! * @hggaddy.bsky.social for "High rates of polygyny do not lock large proportions of men out of the marriage market" (doi.org/10.1073/pnas...).
Glad to see more demographers pushing back against the low fertility panic and in non-demographic outlets, where they might reach broader audiences. 1/ www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Low fertility may persist and could be good for the economy - Nature Human Behaviour
Nature Human Behaviour - Low fertility may persist and could be good for the economy
nature.com
In our new paper (BMJ Global Health), we systematically collected 923 historical growth studies covering 122 countries from 1814–2016. By harmonising height-by-age data, we reconstruct stunting patterns over two centuries. Link: doi.org/10.1136/bmjg... 5)
Come join our workshop on excess mortality methodology! It will be two great days of expert talks, discussion groups, and me revealing the results of our many analyst project! 40+ teams have signed up to estimate 1918 pandemic deaths with the method of their choice -- results should be fascinating!
GREATLEAP COST Action@thegreatleap22116.bsky.social · 6mo agoWorkshop “Bridging methods to measure excess mortality: One Epidemic, Many Estimates (1EME)”. 21–22 May 2026, London School of Economics. In-person. Open to all; limited travel funding for UK/EU grad students & GREATLEAP members. Register by 15 Mar 2026 (funding: 15 Feb).🧵⬇️
My research means I spend a lot of timing thinking about the conditions under which people stop trying to preserve their health and well-being. Why do people continue to smoke even when they know the risks of cancer? Why do people refuse to wear a seatbelt or a helmet when they know the risks?
📣 Call for papers: We are inviting you to submit contributions to a Special Collection on the Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality in the Long-Run, organized by K. Thompson, T. Riswick & S. Clouston. Submissions to this collection are possible from January 28, 2026 until June 28, 2026. (1/2)
Like the authors talk about, this also happened during the 1918 flu, with the 1919 cohort being poorer from birth than (at least in the US). As much as I wish differently, this casts doubt on the whole premise of cohort discontinuity studies of the effects of pandemics! (1/2)
Moritz Oberndorfer@moberndorfer.bsky.social · 7mo agoNew paper finally published! Using data on 78 million births from 15 countries, we found that babies conceived during the COVID-19 pandemic have a different parental socioeconomic composition than expected had the pandemic not occurred. doi.org/10.1038/s414... @natcomms.nature.com @helsinki.fi
Thrilled to share my latest paper entitled, "Estimating Discrimination in Sentencing: Distinguishing between Good and Bad Controls" Led by @jpinasanchez.bsky.social, the paper introduces a framework for examining discrimination in criminal justice processes. 🧵 1/10 publicera.kb.se/ejels/articl...
Retraction Watch has covered the problem of the “national IQ” database. Should be noted I’m far from alone in working to remove these publications. The spreadsheet of pubs which use NIQ - linked to in the article - was started by @kohngregory.bsky.social; a project also worked on by Cathryn Townsend
Dalmeet Singh Chawla@dalmeet.bsky.social · 8mo ago. @rebeccasear.bsky.social is on a mission to get all studies using a database linking #IQ and race retracted. I spoke to her for @retractionwatch.com to find out more: retractionwatch.com/2025/11/25/m...
If you want to channel your frustration with bad excess mortality modelling into some productive science, come join our "One Epidemic, Many Estimates" (1EME) project! Sign-ups are welcome through January/February! www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
One epidemic, many estimates (1EME)
lse.ac.uk
Adam Kucharski@adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 9mo agoNIH directors have pointed to below estimates as evidence that Sweden was 'best in the world at protecting human life' for COVID (www.city-journal.org/article/nih-...). But plot doesn't show what they apparently think it shows - and there is a big red flag that immediately jumps out... 🧵
Curious about using census microdata in your research? 📊 Join us for a webinar on IPUMS International, the world’s leading repository of harmonized census data. 🗓️ 12 Nov 2025 | 🕒 15:15–16:30 UK | 💻 Zoom Register: forms.gle/oqTDNU4Zpn2s... Hosted by the LSE Historical Economic Demography Group.
Register for IPUMs International Online Session
Please use this form to register for the IPUMs International Session hosted by the Historical Economic Demography Group at LSE. The session will be on Zoom from 15:15-16:30 UK Time on 12 November 202...
forms.gle
Great piece by @davidwlawson.bsky.social highlighting three new papers on polygamy. It's complicated but the effects aren't what you think: polygamy usually doesn't create "excess" men, usually doesn't disadvantage child health, and can even be an economic hedge! theconversation.com/rethinking-p...
Rethinking polygamy – new research upends conventional thinking about the advantages of monogamous marriage
Simplistic stories about the dangers of polygamy can be compelling and intuitive. But new research suggests some arguments about its harms don’t hold up.
theconversation.com
Hampton Gaddy@hggaddy.bsky.social · 10mo ago🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Excited to share my recent WP with Alan de Bromhead & @ronanlyons.bsky.social Build Better Health: Evidence from Ireland on Housing Quality and Mortality cepr.org/publications... via @cepr.org
DP20725 Build Better Health: Evidence from Ireland on Housing Quality and Mortality
Poor housing conditions, and the negative effects of Household Air Pollution (HAP) in particular, remain one of the most pressing global public health challenges. While the association between poor housing and health has a long history, evidence of a direct link is lacking. In this paper, we examine a rare example of a public housing intervention in rural areas, namely the large-scale provision of high-quality housing in Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We exploit a novel dataset of deaths-by-disease and deaths-by-age-and-sex over the period 1871–1919, to test the impact of the intervention on mortality. Our difference-in difference estimates indicate that improved housing conditions reduced mortality by as much as 1 death per 1000. This effect is driven by reductions in deaths from respiratory diseases. We propose a likely mechanism that is consistent with the pattern of results we observe: a reduction in Household Air Pollution through improved housing quality and better ventilation. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the scheme was a highly cost-effective intervention.
cepr.org
✍️ Just out: Annette Baudisch & I delve into the formal demography of fertility, birth, & reproduction timing. 👶 We use methods from mortality research to summarize when in the parental life course children are born. 📆 1/n doi.org/10.1080/0032... @sdu.dk @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social
Fertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworks
The conventional framework of fertility research conceptualizes childbirth from the mother’s perspective. From her perspective, birth is an uncertain and potentially recurring event. In contrast, t...
doi.org
I'd add that at least in China before the 20th century, polygyny probably wasn't as prevalent as commonly imagined. In our northeast Chinese rural datasets, it was very rare. By the late 19th century, it was also uncommon in the Imperial Lineage, except among close relatives of the Emperor. 1/3
Hampton Gaddy@hggaddy.bsky.social · 10mo ago🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
High rates of polygyny do not lock large proportions of men out of the marriage market | PNAS
There is a widespread belief, in both the scholarly literature and the popular press, that polygyny prevents large numbers of men from marrying by ...
pnas.org
🧵 1/ New paper from CCEs @rebeccasear.bsky.social led by @hggaddy.bsky.social with @anthrolog.bsky.social challenging some common assumptions about polygyny (there are many…) it's open access 🔓 🧪 @brunelpsy.bsky.social
High rates of polygyny do not lock large proportions of men out of the marriage market
pnas.org
🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
High rates of polygyny do not lock large proportions of men out of the marriage market | PNAS
There is a widespread belief, in both the scholarly literature and the popular press, that polygyny prevents large numbers of men from marrying by ...
pnas.org
LSE and @bspsuk.bsky.social are hosting a workshop on "Being an academic in population studies" on 3 November! It'll be a nice mix of methods training and career advice with great talks by @ericbschneider.bsky.social, Wendy Sigle, José Manuel Aburto, and others! www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/being-an-a...
The data is now available for all teams who've already signed up! More sign-ups very welcome! Happy analysing! 💻📊
Hampton Gaddy@hggaddy.bsky.social · 11mo ago📢 Interested in excess mortality methods, and want a challenge? I'm organising the "One Epidemic, Many Estimates" (1EME) project! Register *now* as a many analyst team (submissions due 15 March 2026), and then join us at LSE for a workshop on 21-22 May 2026! (1/n) www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
Since pandemic mortality is clearly still a question people seem to be confused about, this project at the LSE is showing us where we need to go: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His... #histmed #PublicHealth #PandemicThinking #ExcessMortality
One Epidemic, Many Estimates (1EME)
One Epidemic, Many Estimates (1EME)
lse.ac.uk
Following major European pandemics and wars of the 19th and 20th centuries, "recovery times across events averaged approximately seven years and showed no significant statistical differences by event type or sex," find Silva & Aburto in new article: doi.org/10.1007/s426...
Life Expectancy Loss and Recovery by Age and Sex Following Catastrophic Events in Europe during the 19th and 20th Centuries - Canadian Studies in Population
Canadian Studies in Population - Following catastrophic events such as pandemics or wars, a systematic loss in life expectancy at birth ( $$\:{e}_{0}$$ ) can be observed. This study aims to...
doi.org
The pronatalists have done an excellent job of using bad demography to convince the legacy media that low birth rates are a crisis. They are using bad demography to whitewash their sexism, racism, Christian nationalism, classism, & anti-LGBTQ sentiments. It’s why my colleagues & I wrote this:
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
Anne Lutz Fernandez@lutzfernandez.bsky.social · 11mo agoAnd legacy media has spent the past year-plus running pieces on the "crisis" of low birth rates, often echoing RW talking points.
📢 Call for Papers! Workshop Accuracy of Cause-of-Death Registration: Everyday Conditions, Crises & Epidemics 🗓 18–19 Mar 2026 | Barcelona 🇪🇸 Submit 200–300 word abstracts by 10 Dec 2025 👉 docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Workshop ‘Accuracy of Cause-of-Death Registration: Everyday Conditions, Crises, and Epidemics
Please submit your abstract (200-300 words) before 10 December here. We expect to be able to communicate everyone before Christmas about acceptance to the workshop. We anticipate that COST-Action GREA...
docs.google.com
