Hilary Wething

@hilwething.bsky.social

Economist at EPI. Former Asst Prof at Penn State's School of Public Policy. I research labor policy, women's employment, and education policy. https://www.epi.org/people/hilary-wething/

Setting aside the significant losses in the public sector—the mass federal layoffs—private sector employment grew by 717k since January 2025. If it hadn't been for the sizeable gains in health care and social assistance (+848k), the private sector would have shrunk by 131k since Trump took office.

Today's jobs report came in stronger than expected as payrolls increased by 115,000 in April. As a result, average monthly growth the last three months was 48,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady as both labor force participation and the employment level dropped slightly. #NumbersDay #EconSKy

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This is a real problem which should concern many of you, if you put any weight on inequality. There are issues around measuring the labor share. One is the role of depreciation. The net-of-depreication labor share is higher. But it also shows sharp decline post 2000.

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Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 3mo ago

“.. Labor's share of output (nonfarm business) fell to 54.1% in the first quarter, the lowest since records begin going back to 1947.” Said Krishna Guha: “Not so good news for society and our politics.” (via WSJ/Greg Ip)

The spending cutbacks spurred by higher prices unemployment will rise and labor market will cool further, dampening nominal wage growth and making real declines even worse. This war is obviously a disaster across the board, but will have direct and terrible effects on affordability. 3

Real wage growth in 2025 was already negative for lowest-wage workers, and was below 1.5% for just about everybody. A price shock of 1.5% (what's likely baked in based on oil price per barrel increases so far) means 2026 is looking like a year of negative real wage growth for most workers. 2

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We don't have the inflation data yet to show real wage changes in March, but slowing nominal wage growth coupled with rising prices from the Iran war almost surely means real wages will suffer, contributing to worsening affordability. #EconSky

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Today's jobs report was much weaker than expected. Payroll jobs fell 92k in Feb, and revisions to Dec data show a loss of 17k jobs. Average job growth over the last 3 months now under 6k. Household survey population controls indicate a significant drop in the labor force. #NumbersDay #EconSky

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Latest deportation data: ICE is on course to deport more than 400 thousand people in 2025. The current deportation rate is about half of Trump's goal (1 million annual deportations).

Line graph showing average daily ICE removals in 2025 from biweekly detention reports published by ICE. The title of the figure is "Trump is deporting more than 1300 people every day"

While changes at the median or 10th percentile were not statistically significant between 2023 and 2024, income grew 1.3% and 2.2% in real terms at the middle and bottom, respectively. However, inequality did rise because the top grew even faster (4.2% at the 90th percentile). #EconSky #NumbersDay

About 8% of people lacked any form of health insurance in 2024. Unfortunately that rate will dramatically increase in the coming years, from 27 million to more than 40 million thanks to Republicans who cut Medicaid and ACA marketplace subsidies

Bar graph from new Census data showing that 8.0% of people lacked any form of health insurance in 2024.

Today's preliminary revisions to March 2024-March 2025 data suggest job growth was half the pace of initial estimates These regular, transparent steps by BLS to ensure its data are as accurate as possible are one of the hallmarks of the federal statistics infrastructure www.epi.org/blog/todays-...

Today’s BLS preliminary benchmark revisions are necessary for timely and accurate data—not fodder for Trump’s attacks

Today’s preliminary benchmark announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals weaker job growth between March 2024 and March 2025 than when it was first reported based on survey data. These numbers are likely to anger President Trump and the White House who incorrectly view revised data as political manipulation. Trump has already lashed out at BLS, including firing the agency’s commissioner because a jobs report showed a rapidly weakening labor market. But these BLS data revisions are not corrections of mistakes. Revisions are part of the regular, transparent process to update employment counts with the most comprehensive data possible.