Iain Porter

@iainkporter.bsky.social

Senior Policy Adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social https://www.jrf.org.uk/

Burnham wants a 'fair and sustainable' approach to welfare. That means targeting the underlying causes of people's need to claim benefits - which is far more popular with the public (59%) than cutting eligibility (20%) or benefit rates (8%). 1/3

Andy Burnham described “the fair and sustainable way to bring the welfare bill down" in his 1st speech as prime minister today. New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows why tackling underlying problems with jobs, health & housing, not “crude cuts”, would be a popular & lasting approach. 1/10

Quote from Andy Burnham's first speech as prime minister: "We will help more young people into work by changing the education system and giving them more support, more mental health support. And we will build more council homes. That is the fair and sustainable way to bring the welfare bill down, to meet our fiscal rules, and to honour our commitments on defence to our international partners."

🧵 1/ The Milburn Review is right to sound the alarm 🚨 Rising numbers of young people out of work or education should concern all of us. This reflects deep, structural challenges - not a short-term blip.

🗣️ 'Benefits have never been set according to any logical calculation, like the cost of food and bills.' For @theleaduk.bsky.social, Senior Policy Adviser @iainkporter.bsky.social makes the urgent case for an independent process to set Universal Credit levels 👇 https://bit.ly/3MkEaZp

This is how we fix Universal Credit

The basic rate of benefit support falls woefully short – Iain Porter, senior policy advisor at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, explains what needs to happen now.

national.thelead.uk

As Parliament debates annual benefits 'uprating' today, great to see MPs calling out how arbitrary the process is. Support isn't linked to any calculation of essential costs, meaning 5 in 6 low-income families on Universal Credit going without essentials: labourlist.org/2026/02/valu...

'Putting our values into action: Labour should make social security work for everyone who needs it' - LabourList

Catherine West MP argues we need an independent, evidence-led body to asses Universal Credit to ensure it works for everyone who needs it.

labourlist.org

MPs will soon debate the annual benefits ‘Uprating Order' on how much benefits rise this year. But shockingly, support has never been set according to any logical calculation, like ensuring Universal Credit covers life's essentials - which @jrf-uk.bsky.social estimates cost £120 a week🧵1/4

Table showing JRF’s indicative estimate of the amount needed to afford essentials for a single adult and couple in 2026/27. In total (rounded) this is at least £120 a week for a single adult and £205 for a couple. It also shows how this breaks down into different categories. For example, the total for a single adult includes weekly amounts of £42 for food, £24 for electricity and gas, £7 for water, £7 for clothes and shoes, £8 for communications (including phones, internet and postage), £21 for travel and £13 for sundries (such as toiletries, haircuts, cleaning materials, bank charges).

New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then

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New analysis suggests the recent rise in health-related benefit claims is likely to be partly explained by the sharp drop in real incomes from the cost of living crisis. Social security should be there for any of us when we need it, such as losing a job or becoming unwell.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 8mo ago

NEW: Cuts to non-health-related benefits caused increases in disability benefit claims, our new report finds. 📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:

🚨 New analysis alert! Our latest modelling shows that living standards are still set to fall across this Parliament up to November 2029. However, actions taken at the Budget have made this decline less pronounced *by more than half* for low-income households.

Table showing change in household disposable income after housing costs at April 2025 prices, before and after removing the 2 child limit, for the 2019-24 Parliament and the current (2024-29) one. It shows that lifting the 2CL more than halves the drop in living standards for the poorest third of households.

Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.

DWP modelling show a fall of 400,000 over the current Parliament.  This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan.

Every child, no matter their background, deserves to have a good start in life. Ethnic minority children were disproportionately impacted by the two child limit which widens ethnic disparities in child poverty rates. Scrapping this cruel policy to lift 450000 children out of poverty is a huge win!

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Today the OBR finally published employment impacts of Govt’s (remaining) disability benefit cuts, which weren’t ready in the spring. Confirms @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis at the time that these huge cuts to disabled people’s incomes come with relatively few expected to move into work. 🧵1/3

Image from OBR's Budget docuoment: "Our economy forecast now incorporates the net effect of the changes to universal credit (UC) 
policies which remain in force following the policy changes made in July. We estimate these will add around 15,000 average hours equivalent (AHE) to labour supply in 2029-30. This reflects 
the net effect of: (1) the increase in the generosity of the UC standard allowance, which is expected to reduce recipients’ financial incentive to enter or remain in employment, leading to an estimated 11,000 AHE reduction to labour supply; and (2) the reductions in the generosity of and eligibility for health-related benefits in UC, which 
are expected to lower income for new claimants, increasing work incentives, and resulting in an estimated 26,000 AHE increase in labour supply. We have also assessed the new employment support programme announced in the Green Paper. Based on evidence from similar past schemes, combined with the Department for Work 
and Pensions’ range of estimates of the numbers of individuals that could be provided with support, we estimate that the programme could support 20,000 to 40,000 inactive claimants"

🎉Child poverty is at a record high, so the decision to end the two child limit is crucial Poverty holds children back, with consequences for all of us. Every child should have a good start in life This measure alone lifts 450,000 out of poverty & lessens severity for many more

📒 Government published Sir Charlie Mayfield's ‘Keep Britain Working’ report today. An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health. Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵

Population Health Improvement UK@phiuk.bsky.social · 9mo ago

This morning's reading: "Employers join forces with government to tackle ill-health and keep Britain working" from Department of Health and Social Care www.gov.uk/government/n...

📊 Latest inflation figures published this morning show that CPI inflation sat at 3.8% for September. Why does this month's figure matter more? The government will use it to inform how much to uprate benefits by from April 2026. 🔽

We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.

New DWP data today shows 123,000 families – including 103,000 (over 4 in 5) with children – had their Universal Credit reduced by the benefit cap in May 2025. This eats into UC’s already inadequate basic rate, pulling it further below what’s needed to afford life's essentials. 1/6

Image of DWP chart showing proportion of UC capped households by number of children, Great Britain, May 2025. It shows households with 2 or 3 children are the most common family sizes (34% and 27% respectively). The least common family sizes are 5 or more children (7%) and one child (9%). There were 18% of households capped in UC without children.

Govt dropped cuts to PIP, but today's Committee report highlights MPs' concerns that many disabled people will be pushed into poverty by remaining cuts to Universal Credit's health element. In evidence to the inquiry I warned of the hardship this will cause. 1/5 www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Tens of thousands at risk of poverty despite Labour’s benefit U-turn, MPs warn

Changes to welfare reforms not enough to protect newly sick and disabled people from financial hardship

theguardian.com

Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be

A graph showing the increase in the number of children impacted by the Two-Child Limit since April 2018
Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · last yr.

The latest @jrf-uk.bsky.social cost of living tracker (May 2025) reveals the depth of hardship among low income families with 3+ children 🛑Almost 9 in 10 (88%) went without essentials in the previous 6 months 🛑 8 in 10 (82%) were in arrears 🛑7 in 10 (71%) held a loan taken out to pay for essentials.

Actually around 50,000 people will be pulled into poverty by remaining cuts in Bill - based on Govt’s impact assessments. @jrf-uk.bsky.social previously showed how DWP sleight of hand underplayed true poverty impact – same applies to this latest publication. 🧵1/3 www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

Welfare bill will now lift 50,000 out of poverty after U-turns, assessment finds

Revised bill passed after UK government rowed back on cuts will mean fewer rather than more people in relative poverty in 2030

theguardian.com