Why is spending on disability benefits increasing? 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @eduinlatimer.bsky.social discuss the factors that may have driven the increase in spending, in our recent podcast on whether disability benefits need reform:
Eduin Latimer
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social
Economist at Institute for Fiscal Studies, interested in low-paying labour market and the tax and benefit system.
Since 2019, government spending on working age benefits has risen from 4.2% to 4.7% of GDP. 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @eduinlatimer.bsky.social explain how working age benefits spending has changed overtime, in our recent podcast on whether disability benefits need reform:
If I'd known this event was going to get 16k+ views on youtube, I would probably put a comb through my hair that morning! www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tvC... Watch Bobbie Upton's presentation on Britain's high electricity prices here
What should we do about high electricity prices in the UK?
YouTube video by Institute for Fiscal Studies
youtube.com
NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have? 📊 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social and @helenmiller.bsky.social's new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
The government’s proposed ‘Your First Home’ scheme would offer eligible first-time buyers in England 20% equity loans on new-builds, with deposits as low as 2.5%. What could it mean for buyers and the housing market? 🧵 below:
Great to be on the @theifs.bsky.social podcast again. This time to discuss options for reforming PIP
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 2w agoNEW PODCAST: Do disability benefits need reform? @helenmiller.bsky.social, Tom Waters, and @eduinlatimer.bsky.social look at how PIP works, why claims are rising and what choices the government face as it considers reforming disability benefits. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/do-...
This really should be bigger news. Most important driver on long-term changes in living standards is productivity and recent revision to how it is measured suggests output per hour actually grew almost twice as fast from 2009 to 2019 (up from 0.7% a year to 1.3% a year)
Chris Giles@chrisgiles.ft.com · 4w agoAnyway, (for various complicated reasons due to survey quality) the upshot is measured annual UK productivity per hour since the GFC will be revised up from 1.1% to 1.3%
This is one of the key charts from our report out today. PIP only provides 2 levels of support for daily living costs. This means people with very different levels of assessed disability get the same amount of cash.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 4w agoNEW: People with different levels of disability get the same amount of Personal Independence Payment (PIP). Someone who can't wash and needs help dressing could get £5,960 a year – the same as someone who can't wash, dress, talk or read. THREAD on our new Green Budget chapter: ⬇️
The Timms Review has provided some 'emerging recommendations' for the future disability benefit system to replace PIP. Biggest news: currently PIP is just cash. In future they suggest that while cash will still be foundation of the award, some awards will also include non-cash support.
Great chart from Max here that shows migration policy changes can have big economic and therefore big fiscal effects.
Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · last mo.Migration policy changes can have big economic effects. This chart shows illustrative estimates of the effects of these 3 policies on GDP. These could have been larger than any of the high-profile ‘supply-side’ policies since 2023, inc planning reform and childcare subsidies. [5/9]
NEW: Hidden NEETs are much closer to the labour market than NEETs who are claiming benefits. Our new analysis, out today, looks at young people who are not in education, employment or training and do not claim benefits: ifs.org.uk/publications...
https://ifs.org.uk/publications/radar-who-are-neets-not-claiming-benefits
ifs.org.uk
NEW: The NHS almost always has its budget topped up. But 2025–26 was different, with a much smaller top-up and no claim on the Treasury Reserve or capital budgets for frontline pressures. @maxwarner.bsky.social & Olly Harvey-Rich’s Green Budget comment on what changed last year [1/4]
NEW: How does being a 25-year-old today compare to previous generations? 📊 Here’s what our new explainer, with analysis produced exclusively for the BBC, finds about earnings, employment and housing for young adults [THREAD 🧵 ]:
This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.
Eduin Latimer@eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 3mo ago3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.
3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.
This is an amazing chart - but it shows *relative* inequality. Because wealth has grown from 3.5 to 7 times annual GDP since 1991, the *absolute* wealth gaps are wider, and stagnant wages mean it's harder to earn your way up the ladder. So beneath the surface, still cause for concern.
Jemima Kelly@jemima.bsky.social · 3mo agoAn amazing chart showing how much wealth inequality in Britain has *fallen* over the past century - taken from this Quillette piece on Channel 4's failure to fact-check the whole premise of its Gary Stevenson documentary. quillette.com/2026/07/14/g...
The Timms Review Interim Report came out today. They say that Personal Independence Payment (PIP, the UK's working age disability benefit) is 'not fit for purpose.' Brief thread based on @theifs.bsky.social research with 5 key stats you need to know about the issue:
Great thread by Nick on the options for increasing public investment within the government's fiscal rules
Nick Ridpath@nickridpath.bsky.social · 4mo agoCould the government borrow more to fund investment in infrastructure? There's a case for borrowing for productive investment, but there isn't one simple trick to substantially increase borrowing within the current fiscal rules. A short thread:
The OBR have released a new insightful report overpayments on fraud and overpayments in the benefit system. A brief🧵 explaining the key points:
Really enjoyed talking to the More or Less team about work incentives within the benefit system. You can hear the episode here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
More or Less - Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more? - BBC Sounds
Tim Harford examines benefits v work, dangerous temperatures and the World Cup draw.
bbc.co.uk
Heard from a reliable source that Mythos, a system capable of cracking any software system, stealing the nuclear codes and watching Putin while he takes a shower, is still reduced to a blubbering, incontinent wreck by the website of our Office for National Statistics, and this makes me damned proud
Some new evidence from Millburn review: Young people are staying on both incapacity benefits (UC health) and disability benefits (PIP) longer than they use to. There has been a lot of focus on the big increase in new claimants for both benefits, but slowing outflows are also part of the story.
If you like your economics to be reality-based, impartial and not always doom laden, listen to this @theifs.bsky.social podcast on the public finances with me @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...
The tough fiscal reality facing the UK government | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Britain faces high debt, high borrowing costs, rising taxes and stretched public services. We explain the fiscal reality facing any government.
ifs.org.uk
This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.
Sensible to trial new ways of embedding health and employment support earlier for people with health issues that affect their work or capacity to work. Vitally important that these trials are set up so they can be rigorously evaluated and learned from. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Scheme to trial scrapping fit notes to get people back to work
The government says the system is "broken", with too many people signed off work with no help to return.
bbc.co.uk
NEW: The new tax on salary sacrifice pension contributions are set to hit higher earners in the private sector the hardest. 📗 @laurenceobrien.bsky.social & @matthewoulton.bsky.social’s new report examines who will be most affected by changes to how salary sacrifice pension contributions are taxed:
New PIP (disability benefits) data is out and it will be welcome news to the government who have expressed a desire to slow the rise in PIP claims. The number of new PIP claims each month has fallen again and is now considerably below its peak although still well above pre-pandemic levels.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 7mo agoNEW: Today’s new statistics show that the number of people starting disability benefits each month has continued to decline. Monthly awards are still above pre-pandemic levels, however. 📊 @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Sam Ray-Chaudhuri’s new comment explains the new data:
NEW: Today’s new statistics show that the number of people starting disability benefits each month has continued to decline. Monthly awards are still above pre-pandemic levels, however. 📊 @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Sam Ray-Chaudhuri’s new comment explains the new data:
Great analysis by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. The Government's jobs guarantee and youth jobs grant provide big (if temporary) incentives to hire young people who have been unemployed and on the relevant bit of universal credit for more than 6 months.
Xiaowei Xu@xiaoweixu.bsky.social · 7mo agoYesterday’s announcement hugely reduces the short-term cost of hiring 18-24 year olds on UC, even compared to FY2024 before the rise in youth min wage rates and employer NICs. More (bonus) charts and reflections below 🧵👇
Today we updated our @theifs.bsky.social spending tool with 2024-25 data! Do have a play around with it if you're having a quiet Friday afternoon - it lets you produce some nice breakdowns of different types of spending, across different areas and over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
