Stephen Kirchner
@insteconomics.bsky.social
Economist in Sydney, Australia. Personal account, usual disclaimers. If you like my short form content, you will just love my long form newsletter: https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/
Robert Hall and Michael Woodford have won the Nobel prize in economics. I discuss some of Woodford's work in the context of what Scott Sumner calls the Princeton School in this post stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/book-club...
Book club: Scott Sumner’s ‘Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy’
Chapter 3: The Princeton School and the Zero Lower Bound
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Robert Hall and Michael Woodford have won the Nobel prize in economics. I discuss some of Woodford's work in the context of what Scott Sumner calls the Princeton School in this post stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/book-club...
Book club: Scott Sumner’s ‘Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy’
Chapter 3: The Princeton School and the Zero Lower Bound
stephenkirchner.substack.com
A minor funny thing is the Gale-Shapley algorithm was originally derived from job markets, but in particular the incredibly strange and directed job markets in medicine and American academic economics. The kind of ordered and legible arrangement established classes like to reserve for themselves
Erin Cook@erincook.bsky.social · 5d agoThe only thing more fascinating than Singapore's language policy, is Singapore's population policy. Me in @lowyinstitute.bsky.social on the city-state's latest, most novel approach: www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
Mark the Graph picks up on some of the themes in my Macro Digest: Why Are Global Bond Yields Rising? markthegraph.blogspot.com/2026/10/why...
Mark the Graph picks up on some of the themes in my Macro Digest: Why Are Global Bond Yields Rising? markthegraph.blogspot.com/2026/10/why...
12-month complimentary paid sub to the new subscriber who gets me to 2,000 stephenkirchner.substack.com/
Sectoral decomp of US September non-farm payrolls
Sectoral decomp of US September non-farm payrolls
For once, all the China PMIs land on the same day. Modest improvement on most of the headline measures, but only narrowly expansionary
The Quincy types are big mad that biden averted war with iran.
For once, all the China PMIs land on the same day. Modest improvement on most of the headline measures, but only narrowly expansionary
Today marks the 46th anniversary of the Simon-Ehrlich wager. See my retrospective on real commodity prices over the last 125 years stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-simon...
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Today marks the 46th anniversary of the Simon-Ehrlich wager. See my retrospective on real commodity prices over the last 125 years stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-simon...
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Revisiting the secular trend in real commodity prices on the 46th anniversary of the Simon-Ehrlich wager stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-simon...
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
stephenkirchner.substack.com
"That Census face." Ad for the 1933 Census in The Sun and Guardian, July 2, 1933. Found under the lino in a 1920s house I am renovating.
Revisiting the secular trend in real commodity prices on the 46th anniversary of the Simon-Ehrlich wager stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/the-simon...
The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 125 years
The secular trend in real commodity prices
stephenkirchner.substack.com
Rising US Treasury yields are not about fiscal policy
Rising US Treasury yields are not about fiscal policy
I'm now officially a Senior Fellow at Montreal Economic Institute! And I have Trump's tariffs to thank for it. The position arose from a paper MEI commissioned me to write about them. Once again, Trump comes through for his white working class base! www.iedm.org/ilya-somin/
Ilya Somin | Montreal Economic Institute
iedm.org
My Sunday Times piece: The Bank of England will announce its plans for quantitative tightening (QT) for the next 12 months on Thursday. But should it be doing any when gilt yields are so high? Should the Bank of England sell gilts when yields are so high? www.thetimes.com/article/49c8...
Should the Bank of England sell gilts when yields are so high?
Unconventional monetary policy has created unconventional dilemmas. Plus: the ONS takes a maple leaf out of the Bank’s book
thetimes.com
Right on cue, the Nikkei reports the outcome of next week's BoJ policy board meeting. Much more of a heads up than we used to get from the non-voting MoF reps on the policy board, who would leak the decision to NHK! asia.nikkei.com/economy/ban...
Bank of Japan set to raise policy rate to 1.25% next week
Facing inflationary pressure, central bank accelerating pace of rate hikes
asia.nikkei.com
Right on cue, the Nikkei reports the outcome of next week's BoJ policy board meeting. Much more of a heads up than we used to get from the non-voting MoF reps on the policy board, who would leak the decision to NHK! asia.nikkei.com/economy/ban...
Bank of Japan set to raise policy rate to 1.25% next week
Facing inflationary pressure, central bank accelerating pace of rate hikes
asia.nikkei.com
Investment intentions, tariffs and plague An analysis of the 2025 Liberation Day tariff shock stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/investmen...
Investment intentions, tariffs and plague
An analysis of the 2025 Liberation Day tariff shock
stephenkirchner.substack.com
The April 2025 Trump tariffs were a negative aggregate demand shock, where the transmission channel ran from trade policy uncertainty through investment intentions stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/investmen...
Investment intentions, tariffs and plague
An analysis of the 2025 Liberation Day tariff shock
stephenkirchner.substack.com
