Jake Lahut

@jakelahut.bsky.social

Reporter covering the Trump White House, the tech right & the 2026 midterms. Scoops in NY mag, WIRED, CJR & local dailies. Upstate New Yorker, emergency backup hockey writer. FR/EN 🇫🇷 jakelahut.com (Signal: Leak2Lahut.26)

Another factor worth pointing out for El-Sayed's strong performance in Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo: Around 40% of the population in each has a college degree. A little apples to oranges, but take Saginaw County where Stevens has done great: Just 24% there.

Very dumb reporter thing that no one should care about, but I feel pretty good about picking western Michigan for my limited swing on the trail. That's really where El-Sayed padded his margins and got some very impressive voter turnout

So in terms of where Stevens might have some vote left and any remaining path, I'm looking at Livonia and Plymouth in Wayne County, and then the area around Flint in Genesee County

El-Sayed could be on track for a double digit improvement in Grand Traverse County compared to his 2018 results against Whitmer (and Shri — I don't stand for Shri Thanedar erasure on this account). 2018: 40% (5k votes) 2026: 60% (6.1k votes with 60% in)

This one I found surprising: El-Sayed leading Stevens by about a point in Kalkaska County with about 90% of the vote in. One would assume Stevens could have done much better here based on these other whiter, less wealthy counties where she's been performing well.

Looks like a 10-15 point polling miss in Michigan regardless of who wins. And people have been writing a lot of electability takes using this data. It’s dangerous out there folks be safe

Stevens just keeps falling 10-ish points below Whitmer's numbers in 2018 in a lotta places, but there also does seem to be a polling error to some degree working in her favor with these mail-in vote numbers & in majority Black precincts