Up-to-date info on pre-war econ baseline and post-war econ impacts. Yes, oil and gas, but not just them (that's the 30-year mortgage rate below). econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...
The affordability debate is overlooking a key factor: higher wages. Union bargaining is the way to get there, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I argue for @theprogressivemag.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/mr2n8pas
How Union Bargaining Can Buoy Affordability
A true affordability agenda should raise wages. Unions and collective bargaining can help achieve that.
tinyurl.com
This is such important work, and practically in real time, which is very important. Also, shows economists can apply our skills to aid the resistance!
Aaron Rosenthal@aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 5mo agoNew research with @aaronsojourner.org of the @upjohninstitute.bsky.social posted on @northstarpolicy.org's blog. We find that Operation Metro Surge caused declines in employees working, hours worked, and businesses open, leading to an estimated $106 million wage loss for Twin Cities workers.
Aside from the annoying moderator, I thought this price control debate was 1-2 std devs above the mean for this sort of thing. Jam packed with substance, evidence, logic, tradeoffs, clarity, and respect. And on an interesting, timely topic. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrpm...
The Affordability Conundrum: A Debate on How To Deliver Immediate Relief While Expanding Supply
YouTube video by Center For American Progress
youtube.com
Affordability policy is often accused of aiming to lower the overall price level. Not so! The agenda is grounded on 2 criteria: a) short list of living-standard essential goods/services, wherein b) the market that produces them is flawed. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...
Opinion | Yes, Politicians Should Run on Affordability
nytimes.com
Explaining the "big, yellow gap" between how folks feel about the economy these days (bad) and overall growth (good). As usual, we don't have all the data we need to explain the gap, but I draw on a lot of what we do have. econjared.substack.com/p/is-this-ec...
Is This Economy Great or Awful?
A Q & A on the factors behind the "big, yellow gap."
econjared.substack.com
Gemini just told me this: "While many people in the finance industry are increasingly interested in strength training, there are no well-known, high-profile economists famous specifically for their fitness or a muscular physique." Sounds right but I'd still like a fact check.
I'm seeing this from the excellent @gelliottmorris.com: "I explain how “affordability” has become the new “inflation”" I've learned over many years now that affordability is much more a price level issue than a price change issue (tho normal people conflate the 2). It's not that people are fine...
Healthcare affordability policies reside at the intersection of good politics (for Ds) and good policy (for all...well, except rent-seekers). Joint w @nealemahoney.bsky.social econjared.substack.com/p/healthcare...
Healthcare Affordability: How Democrats Can Press Their Advantage On This Key Issue
Here's a set of affordability ideas that reside at the intersection of good politics and good policy.
econjared.substack.com
Should they cut or should they hold? Or should they push the damn meeting back a bit to have a few more drops of precious data?! Some noodling on the Fed's Dec meeting: econjared.substack.com/p/should-the...
Should They Cut or Should They Hold?
"If they cut there will be trouble. If they hold it will be double." So, what the Fed should really do is push the meeting back a few days.
econjared.substack.com
You know how many were saying, even as the u-rate crept up of late, "of course, X% is still historically low unemployment." I think at 4.4%, that's no longer quite right, but interested in others'--some name-checked here--takes. econjared.substack.com/p/tuesdays-m...
Tuesday's Mashed Potatoes
Getting ready for T-giving, here's a mash up: a few numbers of interest, and Greg Ip says affordability can't be solved and is therefore a loser for incumbents.
econjared.substack.com
My mind has been blown! I grew up listening to the highly nuanced music of the Modern Jazz Quartet featuring Connie Kay on drums. I just learned that Connie Kay played on Joe Turner’s shake rattle and roll w its huge crazy backbeat! How did I not know that?! (Tho there’s some disagreement.)
The affordability crisis focuses on prices. That makes sense for reasons I articulate in this piece, but for economists, it's not just p (prices) that matter. It's y/p (real incomes). Just want to be careful not to lose sight of that part of the equation! econjared.substack.com/p/the-afford...
A calculation somebody needs to do: take u-rate, payroll change, infl rate and average month t-1 and t+1. Report forecast error re t. @guyberger.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org Thank u 4 your attention to this matter.
Sorry, progressives & health care policy wonks. But we're going to have to re-remind everyone why Health Savings Accts are a tax shelter for the wealthy, not health insurance. Note distribution of premium tax credits vs. HSA contributions. www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...
Five Reasons Lawmakers Should Reject Expansions of Health Savings Accounts
Expanding health savings accounts (HSAs) is a key element of Republicans’ health care policy agenda. Ostensibly, HSAs allow people enrolled in certain health insurance policies to set aside money...
cbpp.org
Seems strong to me! Gorsuch today, warning about this very point: “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.” We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress!
Dani Rodrik@drodrik.bsky.social · 9mo agoListening to some of the oral arguments at the Supreme Court, I am struck by the difficulty of making a legal -- as opposed to economic -- argument that Trump's tariffs are inappropriate. The legal case that tariffs can't be delegated en masse because they are revenue raising seems weak to me.
On Trump's tariffs, I consistently find myself in firm agreement with the often crazy WSJ ed board! Their latest on how SCOTUS conservatives would have to bend themselves into a massive pretzel to support Trump is deeply incisive, rooted in historical precedent. www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
Opinion | The Tariff King and the Supreme Court
Will the Justices stop Trump from usurping Congress’s power over taxes and tariffs?
wsj.com
Tough to square the following a) it's not tariffs keeping inflation above target & b) rates must be cut. If it's not tariffs/goods pressures--which should subside when (if!) tariffs land on a rate--then it's something else that's harder to "look thru." www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
Fed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts
nytimes.com
There's considerable evidence that consumer spending is increasingly skewed toward the top, driven by the weaker job market and slower wage growth. Given the extent to which spending has fueled this expansion, that's a fragility that bears close watching. econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
Who's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth?
The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing.
econjared.substack.com
Re the shutdown, this is one of those moments when it's crystal clear who's fighting for whom: econjared.substack.com/p/breaking-n...
Breaking News: Contrary to their Claims, Republicans are Perfectly Happy to Raise Taxes
And not by a little, but by over 100% and over $100bn. It's just a matter of who they hit.
econjared.substack.com
I'm way outta my lane here, and playing with very hot fire. No intention to throw any shade, just wondering if others hear it. The hook on Taylor Swift's new single reminded of that from this older Demi Levato tune. www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb... www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...
Taylor Swift - The Fate of Ophelia (Visualizer)
YouTube video by Taylor Swift
youtube.com
Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.
Paging @jedkolko.bsky.social @econberger.bsky.social @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @markzandi.bsky.social and all others who can help here. I know we've always downplayed ADP, for good reasons. It's a different beast in many ways than BLS estab...
New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles: siepr.stanford.edu/publications... Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...
A Three-Legged Affordability Agenda!
Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney.
econjared.substack.com
Not what I'd spend my time on right now, policy-wise, but seems fine for SEC to give public companies a choice of reporting earnings quarterly or semi-annually, as in the UK.
I did not fully appreciate how the BLS's staff efforts to “publish reliable data” could become an act of bravery in the struggle to preserve democracy. But that’s exactly what it is. econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...
A Contrast in Numbers: The White House Forecast vs. BLS
The White House grows out of its deficit problem by way of a fantasy forecast. And then tells us it's BLS that's cooking the numbers.
econjared.substack.com
As a former CEA chair, keeping that job* while being a Fed gov is like having the same guy be your AA sponsor and your bartender. *This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 11mo agoLast bit in Goolsbee interview, he is so calm that it's jarring. To me, Stephen Miran's joining the Fed is not 'business as usual' of a former CEA member coming to the Fed. Miran will be at both at the same time. Also, he called out Goolsbee a year ago as political. youtu.be/41hdpI4IBtg?...
Fun fact: Wally Adeyemo is just great to listen to on matters econ. Clear, concise, compelling, with years of experience to back it all up. Here he is on the latest episode of "Let's Do Lunch!" contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...
Let’s Do Lunch! 09/02
A recording from Jared Bernstein's Let's Do Lunch 09/02
contrarian.substack.com
This from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social "Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..." 1/2