"It is likely that these strikes will continue at a low-level as part of this attritional campaign, while negotiations also take place." Sanam Vakil on the on-going US military strikes against Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via BBC News.

"President Trump does recognise that he perhaps bought too much into the Israeli pitch that this would be an easy, quick war." Sanam Vakil discussed with @camanpour.bsky.social the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump amid the wars in Iran and Lebanon, via @cnn.com.

"This is the second round of kinetic back and forth between the US and Iran." Sanam Vakil joined @camanpour.bsky.social to discuss the military clashes between Iran and the US and the future of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), via @cnn.com.

Whether the United States reduces support for NATO or withdraws entirely, Europe needs a new security architecture — starting with cooperation between EU states and Turkey, Britain and Norway. Read @galipdalay.bsky.social's analysis on NATO and Europe for the summer issue of @theworldtoday.org.

Turkey presses NATO’s EU members to broaden their horizons

As well as pushing for wider European cooperation in the alliance, the Ankara summit host knows that it is key to helping Europe regain influence in its rapidly changing southern neighbourhood, says G...

chathamhouse.org

"I do think it's not only shooting yourself in the foot — but it's like amputating your leg without a medical reason for doing it." President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit. Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k

After decades of hostility, withdrawal from the JCPOA and two US-Israeli wars against Iran, there is little basis for confidence – or trust – between Tehran and Washington.

Will the US–Iran ceasefire hold?

Both sides want to buy time. But other factors like midterm elections, Israel, and deep mistrust may intervene.

chathamhouse.org

A year after the Strategic Defence Review was agreed, the UK government has decided not to fund its own review. In doing so, it is not merely failing to move forward — it is actively going backwards.

John Healey’s resignation highlights profound strategic failure in the UK government’s approach to defence

General Sir Richard Barrons says a lack of government competence is making the UK less safe and undermining its reputation with allies.

chathamhouse.org

If Russia can claim victory in Ukraine – or even if it is perceived as victorious – Moscow will be emboldened with serious consequences for the entire Black Sea region.

Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy

How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region

chathamhouse.org

Iran's leadership feels emboldened. Its command structure endured repeated US-Israeli strikes and Tehran's leverage has increased with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on the US-Iran negotiations for @theguardian.com.

Iran and the US both think they are winning the war. The truth is they are both losing | Sanam Vakil

The current ceasefire has held just enough to prevent a return to all-out war, but neither side is close to achieving peace, says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at...

theguardian.com

The Xi–Putin relationship remains one of the most consequential strategic partnerships in the world. Yet its durability lies not in limitless friendship, but in carefully managed limits.

China and Russia’s strategic duo endures – but its limits are clear

This week’s summit shows the relationship is resilient, rooted in shared interests. But China remains wary of commitments on various fronts.

chathamhouse.org

Thinking of all my former colleagues at the @uniofnottingham.bsky.social today. This looks absolutely devastating.

Thousands of University of Nottingham staff told they are at risk of redundancy

Institution says it could run out of money by 2031 and wants to cut more than 600 academic and support posts

theguardian.com

Donald Trump's goals for Venezuela and Iran carried an implicit message: maximum pressure sanctions failed, requiring an escalation to US military strikes. Cuba may be next.

Do Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions inevitably lead to military action?

When ‘maximum’ economic pressure fails to bring regime change, and rhetoric has made diplomacy politically impossible, momentum towards military solutions will grow.

chathamhouse.org

China will not displace the US as the Persian Gulf's security guarantor, but Beijing could play a role in building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their strategies.

China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran

China will not displace the US as regional security guarantor, but it could play an important role building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their security strategies.

chathamhouse.org

As the world scrambles to respond to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran war should prompt preparations for a crisis over Taiwan.

A Taiwan crisis would cause far more global economic damage than Strait of Hormuz disruption

As China ramps up its pressure on Taiwan, the Strait of Hormuz closure must serve as a wake-up call for European policymakers.

chathamhouse.org

"The Islamic Republic is not only ready and willing to continue to fight for what it sees as an existential war— but that it is prepared for a longer fight." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the latest developments in the US-Israeli war on Iran, via BBC News⤵️

"Our interests in Europe and the UK are the same. Our values in Europe and the UK are the same. We need a UK voice in Europe. We really miss you guys." President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit. Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k

"I think Brexit was a colossal mistake." President Alexander Stubb of Finland spoke at Chatham House today about Brexit, the opportunities for cooperation between Europe and the UK, enlargement of the EU and the need for ‘flexible integration’.

Brexit was ‘a colossal mistake’, says President Stubb of Finland – but Europe should build a flexible partnership with the UK

During a speech at Chatham House the president outlined why the EU must embrace ‘flexible integration’ to forge closer relations with the UK and countries like Ukraine.

chathamhouse.org

Iran could come to resemble Iraq after the 1991 Gulf war: a country militarily defeated and economically debilitated yet still governed by a reconstituted form of the same regime. Read Sanam Vakil’s (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on Iran for the @financialtimes.com.

Why Iran could become the next Iraq

The first Gulf war left a weakened regime in place without a political settlement — paving the way for future conflict

ft.com

Another op-ed to add to your weekend reading list. My @chathamhouse.org colleague Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com about the Trump administration’s policy towards Cuba and the humanitarian crisis there. Important analysis given unfolding events in Iran and Venezuela.

Opinion | Trump Isn’t Ready for What He’s Starting in Cuba

nytimes.com

“Regimes built around powerful security institutions have a history of resilience, even in defeat.” An important read by my @chathamhouse.org colleague Sanam Vakil in the @financialtimes.com this morning on what a post-war Iran might look like, namely Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

Why Iran could become the next Iraq

The first Gulf war left a weakened regime in place without a political settlement — paving the way for future conflict

ft.com

Policymakers in Beijing have become increasingly convinced that globalization – once the engine of China’s meteoric growth – is becoming a source of vulnerability.

China’s Five Year Plan commits to economic resilience – as the Iran war exposes the fragility of global supply

Beijing is striving for tech self-reliance, aiming to embed intelligent technologies in its economy. But there is a tension in the strategy that could define China’s next decade.

chathamhouse.org

"Traffic has ground practically to a halt with 300 tankers building up in the Persian Gulf. Iran has achieved its aims but if it does move to formally close the Strait then that is a serious escalation." Sanam Vakil joined Wolf Blitzer to discuss the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via @cnn.com.

“The sad reality is they will have broken Iran and then will leave in place hardline remnants of an old regime that will be equally brutal, but economically strangled." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the consequences for Iran from the US-Israeli military campaign, via BBC Radio 4.

For the Islamic Republic, the priority is survival. Iran is not fighting to win in conventional terms, but the regime is fighting to endure. Read Sanam Vakil’s analysis on the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, via @theguardian.com.

Iran may yet endure this war, but the Islamic Republic as we have known it cannot survive unchanged | Sanam Vakil

The regime may now have to meet Trump’s demands merely to save itself. And he needs a coherent plan to deal with what he has unleashed, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

theguardian.com

We are now in the world where Chinese commercial intelligence companies can photograph US F-22A stealth fighters at Israel’s Ovda Air Base and make satellite photos readily available for dissemination. MizarVision has only been around since 2021. This is a major shift with huge implications.

Iran’s opposition groups must learn to work together, otherwise the Islamic Republic will persist. Not because it commands popular support — but because there is no alternative. Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis with @alexvatanka.bsky.social via @foreignaffairs.com ⤵️

Iran’s Divided Opposition

Only a unified movement can threaten the regime.

foreignaffairs.com

"It remains to be seen whether Bangladesh can move on beyond the politics of protest, the politics of revenge which have plagued the country for decades." @chietigj.bsky.social on Bangladesh's first election since the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina, via @france24.com ⤵️

"I don't think that if the Trump administration scores some form of regime change [in Cuba] we would see China or Russia come to the defence of the Castro regime." Christopher Sabatini on the Trump administration's assertive policy towards Cuba, via @deutschewelle.dw.com ⤵️

Iran is confronting a strategic reality it has never faced before – a simultaneous crisis of domestic legitimacy and a threat of external attack so severe that regime survival can no longer be taken for granted. Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️

War, a Trump-imposed deal or internal regime collapse: for Tehran, none of the options are good | Sanam Vakil

Iran’s leaders now face unprecedented peril. The regime has lost its footing, and the global mechanisms to avoid conflict no longer work, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

theguardian.com