Joris Larik

@jorislarik.bsky.social

Associate Professor & Director of Education | EU external relations, global governance & the law | Leiden University College The Hague & Europa Institute, Leiden University https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/staffmembers/joris-larik#tab-1

Today, the EU-Mercosur agreement begins to apply provisionally. The benefits are real and visible as of now. Tariffs start falling. Companies are gaining access to new markets. Investors have the predictability they need.

It began with coal and steel. But from the very start, our Union was always meant to be much more. 75 years ago, in Paris, with the signing of the Treaty of Paris, Europe chose a different path. One of unity over division, of peace over war.

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75 years ago, the Treaty of Paris was signed, establishing the European Coal and Steel Community. Six countries joined forces to build a shared market, choosing cooperation over conflict. Born from the desire for peace after WWII, this treaty laid the foundation for the Union we know today. 🇪🇺

A black-and-white photo of the signatories of the Treaty of Paris, from left to right: Paul van Zeeland, Belgian Minister for Foreign Affairs; Joseph Bech, Luxembourg Minister for Foreign Affairs; Joseph Meurice, Belgian Minister for Foreign Trade; Carlo Sforza, Italian Minister for Foreign Affairs; Robert Schuman, French Minister of Foreign Affairs; Konrad Adenauer, German Federal Chancellor; Dirk Stikker, Dutch Minister for Foreign Affairs; And Johannes van den Brink, Dutch Minister for Economic Affairs. The picture is from 1951 but there is a cake sticker with a ‘75’ candle on top, and colourful bunting sticker hanging above.

Historic day!🇪🇺🤝🇨🇦 Amidst global shifts, Canada and the EU are strengthening ties when needed most. Pleasure to sign w Minister McGuinty important agreement under the #SAFE instrument this morning! It will boost our industries & security, strengthen our defence cooperation & economic ties.

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The display of the flags of the EU, the EU Military Staff, and our maritime missions ATALANTA and ASPIDES at India’s Republic Day is a powerful symbol of our deepening security cooperation. It will culminate tomorrow in the signature of our Security and Defence Partnership.

"Think the unthinkable". Yesterday's speech by German Foreign Office State Secretary von Geyr expresses the horror at both Trump's Greenland threats and the "Board of Peace" by many in German foreign policy establishment. Both named alongside Russia's war against Ukraine as turning points.

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I think deterrence... worked. Europe's response was actually strong. They sent forces to Denmark, they threatened to retaliate with tariffs, they talked about selling US debt, they made markets nervous and it looked like Trump TACO'd... for now.

Trump on NATO: "The problem with NATO is that we'll be there for them 100% but I'm not sure that they'd be there for us, if we gave them the call". We did get the call on 9/11. 26 NATO members sent troops to defend the US. Hundreds died doing so. It was the only time Article 5 has been activated.

Denmark and Greenland are not alone. Good to see my colleagues Troels Lund Poulsen and Vivian Motzfeldt. Arctic security is a shared transatlantic interest, and one we can discuss with our US allies. But tariff threats are not the way to go about this. Sovereignty is not for trade. (1/2)

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Good moment to repost my paper from last year, mapping the cards Europe could play in response to US coercion. Most of them could be played via the anti-coercion instrument. Digital services charges and (de facto) export controls are the keys. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations

Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relati

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In sum, Europe has little to lose in hitting back hard. The hope here is Europe hits back hard and prompts Trump to deescalate, just as he has done on China. Thus by escalating Europe is also creating a pathway to deescalate this crisis.

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/