Justin S. Mankin

@jsmankin.bsky.social

climate scientist || documenting and predicting climate impacts || professor @dartmouth https://geography.dartmouth.edu/people/justin-s-mankin https://jsmankin.github.io/

Rainfall intensity matters as much as how much rain falls. New in Nature: Corey Lesk and I show that daily-scale concentration of precipitation dries the land over the long-run, an effect as strong as total precipitation is climatological wetting. Paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage - Nature

Concentration of precipitation in large events decreases land water availability, and this effect will further increase with a future warming climate.

nature.com

Come help us document, predict, and manage our planetary insult as a PROF Postdoctoral Fellow in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group at Dartmouth! App review begins 2/15/26, here: apply.interfolio.com/178090 Reach out to me with questions and colleagues, please share this widely.

Justin S. Mankin@jsmankin.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Dartmouth is hiring climate science postdocs through the prestigious Provost's Fellowship! Info: apply.interfolio.com/178090 Applications are due February 15, 2026. Come join our collaborative and supportive climate community! Reach out to me (mankin@dartmouth.edu) with questions.

EPA plans to roll back GHG reporting—just as we learn US transport emissions have cost the US economy $68B: zenodo.org/records/1708... The proposal isn't deregulation, it’s a tax on Americans through unchecked pollution.

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Justin S. Mankin@jsmankin.bsky.social · 12mo ago

With the EPA targeting the Endangerment Finding, @ccallahan45.bsky.social, Alex Gottlieb, & I conducted an end-to-end attribution of climate damages from U.S. power sector emissions. The result: $78 billion in climate losses to the U.S. economy over 1973–2023. See here: zenodo.org/records/1687...

Left: Annual-scale direct economic damages to the U.S. economy from the U.S. electric power sector emissions over the 1973-2023 period in billions of U.S. dollars benchmarked to the 2015 dollar value ($US2015). Right: Cumulative direct economic damages from U.S. power sector emissions, equivalent to the integral under the curve at the left.

This could be a big deal for the hundreds of climate lawsuits underway around the world. @jsmankin.bsky.social and @ccallahan45.bsky.social link emissions from specific fossil fuel companies to trillions of dollars in damages. “I think this is going to be the future of climate litigation." 🧪🔌💡

Can climate science attribute economic damage to major polluters?

Climate researchers argue their science has advanced enough to directly link emissions from particular companies to damages from specific extreme weather events

newscientist.com

Water memories are short in the American West. Just two years after the 2020–23 drought, the Southwest drifts back to its climatically preferred state: drought. This 2021 op-ed feels relevant as we approach the 2025 dry season with low snowpack and reservoirs: shorturl.at/Uvsyv

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High CO2 is expected to boost runoff via plant responses, but our results challenge this. Conditioning plant-driven runoff changes on plant-forced precipitation changes, we find runoff declines are as common as increases, with CO2-driven runoff boosts over just 5% of land: shorturl.at/4zM7N

Projected runoff declines from plant physiological effects on precipitation - Nature Water

This study shows that Earth system models disagree on the spatial distribution of plant-induced precipitation changes but indicate that plant responses are as likely to decrease runoff as they are to ...

nature.com

Identifying climate impacts requires data. And data is reflective of the power, values, and priorities of the data collector. MLB has high-speed cameras to isolate warming's influence on a batted ball, but no data on heat stress of ballpark staff & patrons. What of the impacts we cannot track?

Christopher Callahan@ccallahan45.bsky.social · 2y ago

In April of last year, we published a paper in BAMS showing that warmer air temperatures increase home runs in MLB. Now, a companion analysis has been released showing the same relationship in Japanese baseball! Very cool stuff. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

warmer games in nippon professional baseball (japan) have more home runs

Human-caused increases in extreme heat caused ~$30T in losses over 1992-2013, mostly in the low-income world least culpable for warming. $300B/yr in climate financing is 17 times less than the costs of but one climate hazard, estimated with data a decade cooler. Paper here: tinyurl.com/3psfnt4p

Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

Human-caused increases in heat waves have reduced economic output in the world’s poorest regions.

tinyurl.com

Simon Evans@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 2y ago

Nigeria on #COP29 NCQG adoption "$300 billion till 2035 is a joke" "We do not accept this."

As the governments of the world commit humanity to sailing by 1.5°C, a friendly reminder that our level of societal risk aversion—not science—remains the major uncertainty in setting the carbon budget. From Mathez & Smerdon, 2018, itself adapted from Meinshausen et al., 2009.

Likelihood of exceeding a 2°C temperature target as a function of cumulative CO2 emissions. Scientific uncertainty is dwarfed by risk aversion uncertainty.