Flavio Lehner
@climateflavors.bsky.social
Climate Scientist Assistant Professor @ Cornell University Chief Climate Scientist @ Polar Bears International https://flaviolehner.eas.cornell.edu/
"Heat kills — both lives and livelihoods." "And it is often rather small changes in the average that lead to large threshold effects" @chinadailyusa.bsky.social gwagner.com/china-daily-heat "only one additional day above 32 C in any given year lowers annual payroll by 0.04 percent" gwagner.com/hle
🚨 Scientists have been warning for more than a century that catastrophic weather events were inevitable if humanity kept emitting GHG's. But is it worse than even they expected? Climate scientist @drkatemarvel.bsky.social shares her expert perspective in our latest Insights: https://bit.ly/4wsYPMw
Objective measures of @NCAR_CGD climate science show it to be at the forefront of scientific discovery www.dailycamera.com/2026/07/11/n...
Amid the administration’s attacks on climate change, NCAR and CU Boulder rank top 10 in the world for climate research
NCAR earned second place globally out of more than 40,000 institutions, with Carbon Brief noting it had some of the most highly cited authors.
dailycamera.com
🌡️ Wie hat sich die Hitzewelle in der Kalenderwoche 26 auf die Sterblichkeit in Deutschland ausgewirkt? Zur Schätzung der hitzebedingten Sterbefälle erstellt das RKI eine Modellierung, die Daten vom Statistischen Bundesamt und @dwdderwetterdienst.bsky.social kombiniert. ➡️ www.rki.de/hitzemortali...
📣 IPCC opens registration for experts to review the First Order Draft of Working Group I contribution to Seventh Assessment Report. The review runs from 10 August until 2 October. Interested experts can register until 25 Sept 2026: https://bit.ly/4vi25cq Read more 🔗 https://bit.ly/WGI7Fod
Pay peer reviewers $290 per submission, see review times go down from 38 days (with a long upper tail) to 5.5 days (with v. few 'late' reviews), and watch quality go up to boot. Who knew? #IncentivesIncentivize www.nature.com/articles/d41...
I’ve spent more than a year reporting on how the fossil fuel industry has infiltrated academia over the last 30 years, shaping fundamental paradigms on how to address climate change. My first story in the new @propublica.org and @drilledmedia.bsky.social series, “Carbon Captured”, is out today.
ProPublica@propublica.org · last mo.NEW: This is the story of how one of the most influential climate papers in history came to exist thanks to one of the companies most responsible for causing the climate crisis — and one with a financial stake in the technologies described in the paper. w/ @drilledmedia.bsky.social
The UK summer of 1976 was an extraordinary heatwave for its time. On the 50th anniversary, we look back to learn about what that event can tell us today. For those who experienced the heatwave it is engrained in the memory, but it gives us a stark warning about future extreme heat for the UK.
As Hudson Bay sea ice melts, the bears are moving onshore. This is a bit early than optimal but depends on the condition of the bears & how long until freeze-up in autumn. Bears were lean in April-May when I was out sampling in the spring but a lot can change later in spring (most critical time).
What is the probability (and physical mechanisms) of having your local record temperature occur earlier or later than the climatologically hottest time of year? E.g., the 2021 PNW heatwave occurred >1 month before the hottest time of year. Anyone know a study? Figure based on ERA5 1940-2025.
El Niño is here, which means it's time for me to dust off and refine my old collection of ENSO-related climate visualizations. Check out how much sea surface temperatures have already warmed this year across the equatorial tropical Pacific. Wow! Data from psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded...
NY times covered our cut today (gift article) www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/s...
She Used A.I. to Improve Forecasts for Extreme Weather
nytimes.com
Context: in 2018, FB labeled clean energy & climate as “political” topics. I was told I had to “register as a political entity.” I’m a scientist, I said. Over my dead body. So my previously thriving page was shadowbanned-til Dec when the algo was altered to deliberately promote divisive content 😳
Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · 2mo agoAbsolutely crucial piece of research on misinformation in local news on Facebook, X and Nextdoor by @smfthinktank.bsky.social Full report is here (www.smf.co.uk/publications...) but these are some key findings:
May 2026 had the second-worst May drought conditions in contiguous U.S. history, with a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of -6.93. The only worse May: the Dust Bowl year of 1934 (a PDSI of -7.03). Three of the top-10 months for worst U.S. drought since 1895 have been in 2026:
Ein problem für ganz Europa, und wo die USA ausnahmsweise auch voraus liegt (durch ua die flächendeckende Klimaanlagenaustattung ist die Anzahl der Hitzetote generell viel niedriger, auch bei ähnlichen und teils viel schlimmeren Hitzeperioden!) (zB hannahritchie.substack.com/p/heat-guns-... )
Do more Europeans die of summer heat than Americans die of guns?
An attempt to improve a viral chart.
hannahritchie.substack.com
Marcus Wadsak@marcuswadsak.bsky.social · 2mo ago101 Hitzetote in Spanien. Im Mai. www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...
Thank you for joining us and speaking out in support of weather & climate science, @repericsorensen.bsky.social ! @wclivestream.bsky.social
Congressman Eric Sorensen@repericsorensen.bsky.social · 2mo ago🌪️⚡🌧️ FIRST ALERT: Today, I got to meet a group of weather and climate scientists who walked 250 miles to tell Congress to invest in weather prediction infrastructure! They shared the personal stories of Americans who have been impacted by climate change and extreme weather.
That's a wrap! - 50 hours of science + calling Congress - 300 letters given to Congress after a 250-mile walk We provided the templates and our viewers and supporters injected their voices. And like last year, we feel so uplifted by our community. Thank you for spending your time with us
Haley Crim@haleycrim.bsky.social · 2mo agoThe @wclivestream.bsky.social is on hour 49 of livestreaming 100+ talks on climate and weather science! Tune in for the last hour to hear from @kimcobb.bsky.social and the group of scientists who walked from NYC to DC to hand off letters from around the country to Congresspeople!
Thanks Jeff! Emphasis on "may". Lots of competing (and complementary) theories out there on which forcing will win out. I did make a bet with another professor re snow drought occurrence this decade. The looser will have to give a guest lecture explaining why they lost. :)
Dr. Jeff Masters@drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 2mo ago@climateflavors.bsky.social gave a great talk at wclivestream.com on worsening drought in the SW U.S. from less precip and warming. Part of the precip deficit may be from air pollution in Asia affecting jet stream position. If significant pollution reduction are made there, SW U.S. drought may ease.
I’m a climate scientist. Let me fix this headline. “Nearly a century ago, scientists showed that burning fossil fuels warms the planet. Today, we know human emissions account for over 100% of the warming. Yet dark money and disinformation still work to keep Americans addicted to fossil fuels.”
Forbes@forbes.com · 2mo agoScientists have reached a consensus that human behavior is a big driver of climate change—but Americans aren't buying it.
@wclivestream.bsky.social 's very own Syl Foisy is walking 250 miles from NYC -> DC ! Follow along on our Bluesky, YouTube & Instagram (all at @wclivestream)! The walk culminates in a 50 hour-long Livestream starting June 1st! GET HYPED! 😁
The Weather & Climate Livestream@wclivestream.bsky.social · 2mo agoIntroducing Syl, the scientist walking from NYC to DC! Along the way, he’ll meet w 🧪 to talk about why climate science matters for us, the environment, and the future. He's also hand-delivering letters to Congress in support of science. Submit yours (using our template) at wclivestream.com/write
The 250-mile @wclivestream.bsky.social walk to deliver letters in support of science directly to Congress doesn't begin until 10am, but I am officially claiming the first miles traveled on behalf of the walking team 🏆 (the others live in NYC but I have to get there!)
If you're a reviewer or an editor for a scientific journal, I urge you to not hop on the "RCP8.5 is dead" train. There are now editors that reject RCP8.5 but are ok with 1pctCO2. 🤯 Both are what-if scenarios, useful to science. Don't let politics influence what we can research and publish! 1/3
🚨 The Weather and Climate Livestream is back, June 1st - 3rd 2026!! We're streaming 50 hours for our future in the face of a new round of proposed budget cuts and attacks on science. Want to speak at the event? wclivestream.com/volunteer/
We have a new preprint on this, led by my former postdoc David Lafferty (now at Verisk) and with a great set of co-authors including @climateflavors.bsky.social. We use a "meta-ensemble" of downscaled climate products to partition temperature and precipitation projection uncertainty across CONUS.
Varying sources of uncertainty in risk-relevant hazard projections across the United States | ESS Open Archive
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essopenarchive.org
Chris Parker@chrisjparker.bsky.social · 3mo agoFirst: climate models are routinely averaged across many models to give a cleaner message. But from a risk perspective, that can be deeply misleading. The spread of modelled outcomes — especially at regional scales and for extremes — often matters far more than the scenario you chose. 3/6
🧵 There's been a lot of noise about the 'dropping' of RCP8.5 and what that means for worst-case climate outcomes. But this debate is largely missing the point. 1/6 #ClimateScience #ClimateRisk #Adaptation #ClimateModels
Very interesting paper teasing out the nuances of flood risk distribution in the US using an incredible individual-level dataset. Documents a huge concentration of flood risk among the very highest income group - lots of wealthy people enjoying the coast and river views from their second homes.
John Voorheis@johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 3mo agoI have two new papers up in this week's NBER working papers (www.nber.org/papers/w35204 and www.nber.org/papers/w35219). Here's a couple of things I learned in pulling these papers together.
A propos: progressivereform.org/publications...
RCP 8.5 Is Fine, Actually - Center for Progressive Reform
While the high levels of fossil fuel emissions mapped in the RCP 8.5 scenario are unlikely, it remains an important scenario for modeling future climate impacts, particularly at local scales.
progressivereform.org
If you are like me and prefer to read the typeset version of papers, here you go: the final version is out fresh from the print 😊 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Hi everyone, gridded data for the flat10MIP project is now open and public on the Norwegian Research Data Archive. Research using these data for understanding carbon-climate feedbacks, including climate commitment and reversibility is super relevant for AR7-WG1. archive.sigma2.no/dataset/flat...
Sigma2 Data Catalogue
Sigma2 Data Catalogue
archive.sigma2.no
In the SPM of IPCC AR6 WGI there was a hexagon gap in assessed trends of heatwaves & extreme rainfall in Central Africa Can the hexagon gap be filled for AR7? @derrickmuheki.bsky.social et al. have rescued millions of historical observations from the Congo: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
