No question about it

Michael Caley@michaelcaley.bsky.social · 4w ago

I did it I wrote the article wish me luck Lionel Messi is the GOAT, Ronaldo is not, why just about every statistical analyst agress www.expectinggoals.com/p/messi-rona...

We are hiring! We have 3 tenure track positions open: - Comparative Politics: apply.interfolio.com/188149 - International Relations: apply.interfolio.com/188150 - Political Economy: apply.interfolio.com/188151 All jobs have deadlines Oct 5th. Please help spread the word to potential candidates.

Political science: The probability of being the decisive voter is effectively zero Second round of the 2026 Peruvian general election:

Sharing ongoing work with @simonepaci.bsky.social: why is "vice" tax evasion stubbornly high? We argue the usual compliance mechanisms fail for vice taxes, and are currently running (we think) the first RCT of excise enforcement with the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration to test.

Back in NYC I used to live in Bergen Street. I love California a lot so far but deeply miss pedestrian-, bike-, and transit-oriented development.

Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani@mayor.nyc.gov · 3mo ago

Rode the Bergen Bike Bus today to make a big announcement: We’re redesigning Bergen Street and Dean Street, from Court Street to East New York Ave — adding new bike boulevards and more pedestrian space. Safer rides to school for New York City kids coming soon.

Look, every single “deal” reached by a university with the Trump administration is a moral stain that will be seen with deep embarrassment once we’re through this. But for Northwestern to do this now, when the administration is visibly weakened, is even more shameful and inexcusable.

Causation does not imply variation www.grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-...

Causation Does not Imply Variation

Tyler Muir suggested this lovely catchphrase, which should stand next to “Correlation does not imply causation” in our menagerie of econometric sayings.

grumpy-economist.com

Next Monday! @ucisocialecology.bsky.social

Nearly half of UC undergraduates and graduate students experience food insecurity. Those numbers will increase with the federal government's refusal to fund SNAP (CalFresh). If you can afford it, please consider contributing to the UCI Basic Needs Center, which feeds many of our students.

Fill Our Pantries: Nourish Student Success

Help University of California, Irvine raise $15,000 for the project: Fill Our Pantries: Nourish Student Success. Your gift will make a difference!

zotfunder.give.uci.edu

Re-election means voters can hold elected officials accountable, but can it be effective where criminal groups shape local politics? In my new article in @bjpols.bsky.social, I show that in high-crime areas of Mexico, re-election did not boost accountability, but increased collusion instead.

This is a great opportunity at an amazing university in one of the most beautiful cities in the world!

Sergi Martínez@sergisme.bsky.social · 10mo ago

📢 Exciting news from EAFIT University in Medellín 🇨🇴! The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School. 👇 More details in the next posts.

📢 Exciting news from EAFIT University in Medellín 🇨🇴! The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School. 👇 More details in the next posts.

Fun exercise for students in a causal inference class: draw a DAG for this debate.

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Look. It would be great if there was one simple trick for winning elections. But 'just be more moderate' isn't it. In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts. This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.

I joined @cnn.com International last night to discuss the recent U.S. military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling vessels and their implications for counternarcotics cooperation, U.S.-Colombia relations, and regional geopolitics more broadly. (1/2)

I wrote about deadly US strikes in the Caribbean. A lot has been said about the illegality of the strikes, but impunity (and not legality) is the whole point.

The Conversation AUNZ@aunz.theconversation.com · 11mo ago

Two airstrikes in recent weeks have been aimed at ‘narcoterrorists’, according to the White House. They’ve been deadly, dangerous and likely ineffective.

🚨 New publication alert! 🚨 When do armed groups capture democratic elections, and when do they fail to do so? In a new study, @andresuribe.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) investigates how local party competition can shape the effectiveness of coercion during Colombia’s 2002 Senate elections.

I'm working on a difference-in-RDs project but struggling with how to properly handle bandwidth selection across treatment periods. It's not obvious to me how to choose a bandwidth for multiple separate RD estimates at once. Would love pointers to resources or best practices! Thanks in advance 🙏🏼

By the way, this also applies to all experiments and any observational studies that use comparisons. Report control/baseline information to contextualize differences!

Julian Gerez@juliangerez.com · last yr.

Great explainer! I think visualization plays a role too—both FOX/WSJ present party differences centered at zero, without the levels for each party. Here's a quick (thrown-together) example of how showing the underlying values—even when excluding the other responses—paints a very different picture.

It's hard to describe how sad and embarrassed I feel by this.

Rep. Jerry Nadler@nadler.house.gov · last yr.

I am deeply disappointed by reports of Columbia University’s outrageous and embarrassing $200 million capitulation to the Trump Administration’s repugnant extortion campaign.

A timely and trenchant piece by Suresh Naidu. When future generations sift through the wreckage of our era, they’ll find it strewn with the institutional and personal failures of leaders both great and small. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...

Opinion | Columbia’s Administrators Are Fooling Themselves

nytimes.com

I defended my dissertation today! A heartfelt thanks to my committee—@vickymurillo.bsky.social, John Marshall, Sarah Daly, @emoncada.bsky.social, and @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social—for their insight, generosity, and steady support, as well as the family and friends who've backed me every step of the way.

As someone who worked at a government contractor before starting graduate school, I'm thinking about my former colleagues in light of the news about USAID. www.reuters.com/world/us/mus...

Musk to give update on reform effort amid questions about his power

Billionaire Elon Musk, who is heading U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to shrink the federal government, will give an update on the effort early Monday amid reports he has been given access to a vital payments system at the Treasury Department.

reuters.com

To the point of a "Trump effect" on seizures, as tempting as it may be to link seizures to political events, these are influenced by many factors beyond who holds the U.S. presidency (or Mexican presidency, for that matter). I created this figure to provide some evidence for this claim.

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 2y ago

ah they want to do Sicario from the hit movie "don't do Sicario" so badly

Based on some of the online reactions to the tariff situation between Colombia and the United States, it's frustrating how Colombia is still reduced in popular consciousness to a poor, 'third world' country with no autonomy, valued globally only for its exports of legal and illegal stimulants.

Medellín is an incredible city! Despite being born in Bogotá and having family from la costa (Caribbean coast), it's my favorite city in Colombia :)

Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò@olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 2y ago

"Between 2016 and 2019, the level of PM2.5 [air pollution] fell significantly, and in turn the city’s morbidity rate from acute respiratory infections decreased from 159.8 to 95.3 per 1,000 people."

Interesting in the amazing work of scholars who study organized crime and politics? Check out this growing starter pack of scholars and policy-makers. DM me or @juliangerez.com to be added to the list! We're looking to expand! go.bsky.app/EibGsKS

Is your Bluesky feed missing in conflict analysis? I made a starter pack of peace and conflict scholars to follow here. DM me if you want to be included. #Conflictsky go.bsky.app/7o8tZt2

👋 I'm on the academic job market! I'm a political scientist who studies the political economy of security and law enforcement, examining criminal and political violence and the state enforcement strategies that respond to these threats, with a regional focus on Latin America. 🧵 1/9

Excited to share my paper exploring subnational variation in law enforcement intensity, focusing on coca eradication in Colombia. I'll be presenting it at various venues soon, including the MPSA mini-conference on organized crime and politics. julianegerez.github.io/research/EradicationCauses.pdf

Hi Polisky community, long-time (~2 months?) listener, first-time caller. I'm looking for good posters that present the pilot of an experiment—a mix of preliminary results and speculative design considerations seems to be the right idea here, but posters are new to me so any advice would be great.