Kjølv Egeland
@kjolvegeland.bsky.social
Senior researcher at NORSAR. Working on international security, nuclear weapons, and climate politics.
«Hva gjør vi om Putin, eller hans etterfølger, endrer retning og går med på en #våpenhvile? Hvordan sikrer vi at #Russland ikke bruker tiden til å forberede nye invasjonsforsøk i det skjulte?» Meg i @forsvaretsforum.bsky.social www.forsvaretsforum.no/fredsbevaren...
Når våpnene hviler
Hva gjør vi dersom Putin sier ja til en våpenhvile?
forsvaretsforum.no
Former Director of Los Alamos Sig Hecker says new nuclear weapons tests "would likely benefit U.S. adversaries more than it would the United States" and "might rekindle an even greater and broader arms race than in the first few decades of the Cold War" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Lessons From Los Alamos
America has the most to lose from restarting nuclear testing.
foreignaffairs.com
Let's hope he doesn't rush to make concessions - the 28 point plan is falling apart before our eyes and the Trump administration will probably want to sweep it under the carpet soon.
🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦@militarynewsua.bsky.social · 9mo ago❗️Zelenskyy may be ready for a compromise on the issue of exchanging land in Donetsk Oblast for a peace agreement, – WP citing American officials who spoke with Umerov. ▪️Ukraine may be ready to limit the size of its army to 600,000 personnel.
Every time the Trump admin does this, US credibility crumbles a little more in the eyes of its European allies. If the latter were not so heavily invested in the United States, US credibility would have evaporated by now.
Unofficial BBCNews (World) Bot@bbcnews-world-rss.bsky.social · 9mo agoRussia-Ukraine war: US insists it authored peace plan
Seniorforsker ved NORSAR @kjolvegeland.bsky.social skriver i dag i Aftenposten om USAs signaler om mulig gjenopptakelse av atomtesting, og hva slike uttalelser kan bety for internasjonal sikkerhet og arbeidet med å overvåke kjernevåpenprøvesprengninger: www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kro...
Vil Trump snu atompolitikken på hodet?
Det er flere ting som skurrer med Trumps uttalelse.
aftenposten.no
I've been diving into the recent RAND report on how to design a ceasefire agreement between Russia & Ukraine. The key message: the structure and components of an agreement matters. Political will is necessary, but probably not sufficient. 🧵 www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Guidelines for Designing a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War
Lessons from past ceasefire efforts offer actionable insights for the Russia-Ukraine war. Demilitarized zones, dispute-resolution mechanisms, third-party monitoring, and formal agreements have been as...
rand.org
War crimes alert as food runs out in besieged Sudan city www.bbc.com/news/article...
Sudan siege: War crimes alert as el-Fasher runs out of food
Evidence of the intentional targeting of civilians in el-Fasher amounts to war crimes, researchers say.
bbc.com
Thanks for a very generous review of my book in @armscontrolnow.bsky.social by @naomiegel.bsky.social: "Extensively researched, with rich archival evidence and interviews ... The Struggle for Abolition is an important contribution." www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-06/...
The Struggle for Abolition: Power and Legitimacy in Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament Diplomacy | Arms Control Association
armscontrol.org
Interesting; Fortunately Grok got it right on the question whether the seismic event in Pakistan could have been a nuclear test (no!)- but it was based on wrong facts 😰 Kjølv Egeland at NORSAR explains why this is dangerous:
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists@thebulletin.org · last yr.The spread of hearsay about nuclear or other strategic weapons tests is not new—but novel digital technologies have added a new layer of complexity to the grapevine. "When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.
The spread of hearsay about nuclear or other strategic weapons tests is not new—but novel digital technologies have added a new layer of complexity to the grapevine. "When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.
When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis
Grok’s answer to a question of whether the May 12 seismic event in Pakistan could be from an underground nuclear test was probably harmless. But it shows how AI chatbots could spread nuclear misinform...
thebulletin.org
"Social media and AI-powered large language models certainly offer valuable sources of information. But they also risk facilitating the spread of misinformation more widely—and faster—than traditional modes of communication."
François Diaz-Maurin@francoisdm.bsky.social · last yr.JUST IN: Grok’s answer to a question of whether the May 12 seismic event in Pakistan could be from an underground nuclear test was probably harmless. But it shows how AI chatbots could spread misinformation in a crisis, @kjolvegeland.bsky.social writes. thebulletin.org/2025/06/when...
Seniorforsker ved NORSAR @kjolvegeland.bsky.social skriver i dag i @morgenbladet.no om terrorbalansen mellom nabolandene og atomvåpenstatene India og Pakistan: www.morgenbladet.no/aktuelt/uten...
Kashmirsk rulett: To av verdens største militærmakter på randen av krig
Hvor lenge kan terrorbalansen mellom India og Pakistan holde?
morgenbladet.no
Only just managed to read this in full, and as expected, it’s a great piece pulling together all the relevant literature. Give this a read! 👇
Kjølv Egeland@kjolvegeland.bsky.social · last yr.🚨New open access paper of mine on the connections between climate change and the politics of nuclear arms and disarmament. Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...
A classic: US: "Please, take care of your defense yourself!" EU: "Alright, we will build up our European defense industry and only buy European!" US: "NOOO, NOT LIKE THAT!" It will be interesting to see how this plays out this time, now that the US's reputation in Europe is in the toilet.
Reuters@reuters.com · last yr.US officials have told European allies they want them to keep buying American-made arms, amid recent moves by the European Union to limit US manufacturers' participation in weapons tenders, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters reut.rs/4jjPyj7
🚨New open access paper of mine on the connections between climate change and the politics of nuclear arms and disarmament. Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...
Disentangling the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Climate Change—A Research Agenda
Abstract. Global warming and nuclear war are frequently described as the world's greatest threats. Both challenges could be understood as expressions of mo
academic.oup.com
Interview with me and @russianforces.org in Norwegian outlet @nettavisen.no @thomaspaust.bsky.social on French nuclear policy and European security. Would Paris sacrifice Paris for Narva? t.co/qWVqDQRFmT
https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/fransk-atomparaply-tviler-pa-at-frankrike-vil-ofre-seg-for-norge/s/5-95-2322385
t.co
My Slate column on the lies, distortions, and one maybe-bright spot in the foreign policy section of Trump's speech. slate.com/news-and-pol...
Trump’s Plans for the Rest of the World Are Truly Unhinged
His foreign policy agenda is based on lies and strange fixations.
slate.com
The €500 billion special fund only mentions 'energy infrastructure' - nothing about renewables/climate. This could change, as the Greens will have to support it. But it is yet another example of how drastically political priorities have changed since the Green Deal and 'green recovery' initiatives.
Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social · last yr.Here is the German document on the agreement of CDU/CSU and SPD. Includes ambition for rapid decision-making on priority defence procurement and reform of procurement procedures, both of which will be important to spend the money wisely:
So, Zombiedebate about European nuclear deterrence it is. It's simple: 1. There won't be a European nuclear deterrence, as long as there is no true political union - so, very unlikely. 2. National nuclear programs will take too long and consume ressources badly needed for conventional defense.
"[Putin] is entirely in the driving seat despite the US spending the week alienating its own allies, giving Russia nearly all of what it wanted, buying Putin’s warped view of history, and Trump can’t even guarantee a meeting. The art of the deal, indeed."
Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall.com · last yr.Trump could have pushed for an end to the war in Ukraine without becoming actively hostile to Ukraine. Instead, he has imbibed Putin’s lies. Have written about the emergence of a new US/Russia axis, where it comes from and the staggering implications for Europe. open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...
I’m seeing lots of people claiming Europe is fine since the MAGA crowd hasn’t withdrawn the nuclear umbrella.
a man covering his nose with his hand while talking into a microphone in front of a wall with barclays advertisements
ALT: a man covering his nose with his hand while talking into a microphone in front of a wall with barclays advertisements
media.tenor.com
We’re lucky in Europe that the defense industry is much less influential here than in the US. Means we can buy stuff we actually need rather than the stuff the industry wants to produce.
New article on the concepts of trust and confidence in regime creation and sustainment. Relevant to conversations about verification, institution building. #NukeSky journals.sagepub.com/eprint/ZRWZR...
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journals.sagepub.com
🚨 4️⃣ positions to be filled! Join us in Frankfurt/Darmstadt for exciting work in #nuclear arms control, nonproliferation and disarmament at the crossroads of #science and policy! DLs mid-December and later, vary per position. Working language English. And we move into new fancy office spaces! 🚨
CNTR | Arms Control Research@cntrarmscontrol.org · 2y agoJoin CNTR! We are #hiring researchers in nuclear #NonProliferation (PhD positions in physics, PostDoc in physics or social sciences). Apply for our Research Group Science for Nuclear Diplomacy led by @mgoettsche.bsky.social @tuda.bsky.social & @prif.org. www.cntrarmscontrol.org/news/snd-vac...
New publication - read the latest article from our colleague Dr Jan Ruzicka, co-authored with Campbell Craig and @kjolvegeland.bsky.social on US foreign policy and the Non-Proliferation Treaty www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A subtle call to greatness: Unipolarity, US foreign policy, and the indefinite extension of the NPT | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
A subtle call to greatness: Unipolarity, US foreign policy, and the indefinite extension of the NPT
cambridge.org
Contrary to expert predictions, the end of the Cold War and onset of unipolarity did not lead to an increase in nuclear proliferation or the collapse of the NPT. Quite the contrary, longtime holdout joined the nonproliferation regime and the NPT was indefinitely and unconditionally extended. Why?
Kjølv Egeland@kjolvegeland.bsky.social · 2y agoNew article out today with Campbell Craig and Jan Ruzicka on nonproliferation and unipolarity 🚨 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New article out today with Campbell Craig and Jan Ruzicka on nonproliferation and unipolarity 🚨 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
The new nuclear "Basic Principles" just dropped (h/t @dvsteff.bsky.social). The key change is that it's the aggression that "poses critical threat to the sovereignty and/or territorial integrity" instead of "puts the very existence of the state in jeopardy" publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/000...
