Pavel Podvig
@russianforces.org
Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here. All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
I used to do some work on the ethical use of satellite and drone imagery for aid and disaster response, and it is genuinely hard to express in words what a dangerous, stupid thing Google is doing by making it easy to use GenAI to create faked satellite imagery:
How to plant a nuclear plant in Iran
The question is: what on earth is Google doing?
digitaldigging.org
In 1961, CIA believed the Soviets had 50-100 ICBMs. USAF Intelligence believed it was at least 120, with 300 coming within the year. SAC's Thomas Power though they had 1,000. In reality they had more like 4.
Interesting parallels: Dulles in 1955: "[it is vital that] we urgently educate our own and world opinion as to the necessity for the tactical use of atomic weapons." Karaganov et al in 2024: "Convinc[e] our World Majority partners of the legitimacy of a possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia"
Finnish ambassador in russia lays flowers at a destroyed memorial to dead Finnish POW’s in Hatsina, russia.
Happy to contribute to the discussion in Norway about the "advanced deterrence" agreement with France 🙂 (translated from Norwegian). This follows the op-ed published last month, also in Norwegian: russianforces.substack.com/p/the-mirage...
Normally, Russia holds exercises of its nuclear forces in October. This one was in May, which is unusual. It included launches of Yars, Sineva, ALCMs, and Kinzhal, Tsirkon, Iskander. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
The nuclear exercise just carried out by Russia involved Belarus and non-strategic nuclear weapons. Russia said that actual nuclear weapons have been delivered to the combat units. Which is rather unusual. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
The strategic part of the nuclear exercise: Zirkon, Kinzhal, Tu-95MS at Ukrainka, Yars from a Krona shelter at Plesetsk, Iskander ballistic missile from Kapustin Yar (reportedly by a Belarusian crew). Sineva launch reported but not shown. 1/2
Yet another video from the non-strategic exercise t.me/mod_russia/6.... It's quite puzzling, though. Like, the trucks are tarp-covered. Really? In general, Russian MoD and 12GUMO are very careful about their role in all this. I wouldn't be surprised if they are not involved
A strategic exercise in May is somewhat unusual - these are normally held in October - but not unprecedented. There was one in May 2014 russianforces.org/blog/2014/05...
Pavel Podvig@russianforces.org · 3mo agoRussia decided to join Belarus in its nuclear exercises... Speaking seriously, MoD announced a major exercise on 19-21 May, which will include ICBMs, submarines, cruise missile launches, non-strategic weapons (yes, including those in Belarus). Seems rather large-scale. Timing is rather unusual. 1/2
Russia decided to join Belarus in its nuclear exercises... Speaking seriously, MoD announced a major exercise on 19-21 May, which will include ICBMs, submarines, cruise missile launches, non-strategic weapons (yes, including those in Belarus). Seems rather large-scale. Timing is rather unusual. 1/2
Are two successful tests enough to put a missile on combat duty? Probably not. On the other hand, these missiles are supposed to sit motionless in silos for tens of years. This they can certainly do. A lot of nuclear deterrence is theater (and not just in Russia).
Pavel Podvig@russianforces.org · 3mo agoSecond successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM. The first one was in April 2022. Deployment to begin this year. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Second successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM. The first one was in April 2022. Deployment to begin this year. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Putin today promised to deploy Russia's Sarmat ICBM "by the end of this year" — the same pledge he has made at least 10 times since 2021. The only fully successful Sarmat test before today was in April 2022. The missile exploded during a test in Sept 2024. t.me/astrapress/1...
ASTRA
Путин уже пять лет обещает поставить ядерный «Сармат» на боевое дежурство. Он заявлял об этом как минимум 10 раз с 2021, подсчитала ASTRA В апреле 2021 года Путин в послании Федеральному Собранию за...
t.me
“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East.
Nuclear forces test Sarmat missile from Plesetsk
“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Penins...
thebarentsobserver.com
Just a thought - maybe this tells us something. Like, people don't actually believe nuclear weapons are all that dangerous. And they may have a point - nuclear weapon are pretty much useless and unusable.
Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein.bsky.social · 3mo agoLate in 2025 I saw a presentation on philanthropic contributions to various issues, which gave the following numbers for these issues: $10B — climate change $900M — AI safety $200M — biological threats $45M — nuclear security To just give a sense of orders of magnitudes...
Does nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security? Stewart Prager and Denisse Córdova Carrizales argue that it does (and provide a good overview of the SSP) physicstoday.aip.org/opinion/does...
Does nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security?
The answer is relevant to the physics community, especially for scientists who are choosing their research paths.
physicstoday.aip.org
US Space Force updated catalog entries for many Russian military satellites: Cosmos-2600-2608 russianforces.org/blog/2026/02..., 2609-2614 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04..., and 2615-2618 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04.... It is not clear if these are real Cosmos numbers. Russia hasn't said anything
It's not that there are "no easy answers." There are no answers open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons
The English version of an op-ed published in Norwegian:
open.substack.com
War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · 3mo agoEurope is waking up to a deterrence problem with no easy answers. The choices facing the continent explain why this debate is just getting started. (Members Only) Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Great contribution to the field from my colleague Sarah Ruth Opatowski. The compendium maps and analyzes a decade of nuclear risk reduction proposals across the NPT review process, First Committee, and other multilateral forums. Learn more at our side event at the RevCon on May 6, CR8
United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research@unidir.org · 4mo ago☢️ As the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference starts next week, UNIDIR’s latest compendium maps a decade of proposals and over 100 official documents on nuclear risk reduction, drawing out similarities, differences and potential paths forward. 🔗 Read it here: unidir.org/CompendiumNRR
"The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons. There is no scenario in which nuclear weapons can contribute to the security of Europeans." My op-ed in @Forsv_forum "Kjernevåpen for Europa – en illusjon." English version - Web: russianforces.org/podvig/2026/... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Angara launch deploys four military satellites on 23 April 2026. Most likely MKA small optical reconnaissance satellites. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
How many nuclear weapons did the US Air Force want in the late 1950s? An official history says: "a fantastic number." But unfortunately it doesn't quote the actual number. It does quote the Army, however, as wanting over 100,000 "battlefield" nukes, and imagining they could use over 400 per day.
Launch of multiple military satellites from Plesetsk (on 17 April 2026). Two groups of satellites deployed, mission is unknown, Cosmos designations have not been released. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
60 yrs ago today, “The War Game”—the shocking docudrama written/directed/produced by Peter Watkins—had the first of four invitation-only screenings at the British Film Institute’s National Film Theatre in London for members of the establishment after the BBC banned its broadcast on October 6, 1965.
Видео Peter Watkins - The War Game (1965) | OK.RU
In this British documentary, a hypothetical Chinese invasion of South Vietnam triggers a new world war between East and West. In the town of Rochester, Kent, the anticipation of a nuclear attack leads...
m.ok.ru
For DOOMSDAY MACHINES this week, a post that has in some sense been in the making for something like a decade. It is a very close look at the "war plan," QUICK STRIKE, featured in the formerly classified 1958 film "The Power of Decision," produced for the USAF. doomsdaymachines.net/p/a-long-loo...
A long look at a QUICK STRIKE
The grim realities of a faux nuclear war plan from 1958
doomsdaymachines.net
What a nuclear crisis looks like in NUKEMAP logs... these are hourly unique visitors over the last 24 hours, via Cloudflare.
Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein.bsky.social · 4mo agoAlso, I am aware NUKEMAP is taking longer to load than it ought to. I will get to it when I can get to it... not today/tonight!
This is pretty much the mildest thing I said about the current situation... perhaps for the best, though... every time I talk to a reporter I come away feeling totally unhinged, because I'm being asked "normal" questions about totally insane things. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...
The reason that the US President has the exclusive authority to order the use of nuclear weapons is because Truman set up the system along those lines after WWII. This is often depicted as either a power grab, or because in the nuclear age such decisions "must" be made quickly. This is false.
New Meridian-M communication satellite is in orbit russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
