Wanted to share a new, super cool hockey analytics site that’s been built by a member of the Wings’ community. They’ve got some really cool features not available on other sites and are still adding more! @hockeyalpha.bsky.social www.hockeyalpha.com
Aaron K
@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social
Stars fan, data fan, handle to the tune of "Radio Free Europe" He/him https://puckovertheglass.substack.com/
Some quick thoughts: - It's a bit surprising that snap shots pull more similarly to slap shots than wrist shots, though in most other respects they profile more like wrist shots. I'm still not sure whether I think they should be their own category of shot in an xG model or lumped in with wrist shots
Aaron K@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · last wk.In the 23-24 season, the NHL started including left/right (shooter's perspective) detail for misses (wide left/right, high and wide left/right, and hit left/right post). Using that, we can see if shooter/goalie handedness or side of ice influence which side of the net shooters tend to shoot towards
Some quick thoughts: - It's a bit surprising that snap shots pull more similarly to slap shots than wrist shots, though in most other respects they profile more like wrist shots. I'm still not sure whether I think they should be their own category of shot in an xG model or lumped in with wrist shots
Aaron K@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · last wk.In the 23-24 season, the NHL started including left/right (shooter's perspective) detail for misses (wide left/right, high and wide left/right, and hit left/right post). Using that, we can see if shooter/goalie handedness or side of ice influence which side of the net shooters tend to shoot towards
In the 23-24 season, the NHL started including left/right (shooter's perspective) detail for misses (wide left/right, high and wide left/right, and hit left/right post). Using that, we can see if shooter/goalie handedness or side of ice influence which side of the net shooters tend to shoot towards
Net schedule impact on overall team xG. Estimates based on outputs of an RAPM model for the 2025-26 season. Included with and without time zone changes, because I'm less sure I'm capturing the impact correctly
13 back-to-backs for Dallas (T-7th in the league) 15: PIT 14: BOS, BUF, FLA, OTT, WSH 13: CBJ, DAL, NJD, NYI, SEA, SJS, TBL 12: CAR, CHI, DET, PHI, STL 11: ANA, ADM, NSH, NYR, TOR, VAN 10: COL, LAK, MIN, MTL, UTA 9: WPG 8: CGY, VGK
Robert Tiffin@tiffin.bsky.social · 3w agoStars schedule
Donaghy's Fireworks TV Show | 30 Rock
YouTube video by 30 Rock Official
youtu.be
Matt Novak@paleofuture.bsky.social · last mo.It is new. Trump is trying to break the world record for most fireworks. So they're setting off 850,000 fireworks in the span of 40 minutes. Apparently in a normal year it's like 17,000-20,000 fireworks for this show.
The GM Mode is now live! You can access it in the NHL App: nhl.hockey-statistics.com/gm-mode With just a few days until free agency starts you can now see what a signing will do for your team's point projection and run simulations. I will do a write-up on the tool in the coming days.
The Stars‘ recent social media posts have been very bizarre in light of current events
Dallas Stars 💫@notdallasstars.bsky.social · last mo.Drafted here. Developed here. 7 of our top 9 scorers in 2025-26 were drafted by our organization, more than any other team in the NHL ⭐️
I used tracking and shot location data to estimate the shot speed of goals: danielglin.github.io/jekyll/updat...
Estimating Shot Speeds for Goals
Introduction
danielglin.github.io
A couple years back I had the idea of penalizing goalies for posts hit with the thinking being that a post is a shot near enough the goalie should save it if they can (I cannot be convinced goalies intentionally let those shots go because they know it will hit the post)
Aaron K@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 2mo agoSince the NHL started re-classing missed shots that were contacted by the goalie as misses, the share of missed shots that were frozen has ballooned. This doesn't look settled to me either. Something interesting to monitor next season will be whether this stabilizes or continues to increase
A couple years back I had the idea of penalizing goalies for posts hit with the thinking being that a post is a shot near enough the goalie should save it if they can (I cannot be convinced goalies intentionally let those shots go because they know it will hit the post)
Aaron K@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 2mo agoSince the NHL started re-classing missed shots that were contacted by the goalie as misses, the share of missed shots that were frozen has ballooned. This doesn't look settled to me either. Something interesting to monitor next season will be whether this stabilizes or continues to increase
Since the NHL started re-classing missed shots that were contacted by the goalie as misses, the share of missed shots that were frozen has ballooned. This doesn't look settled to me either. Something interesting to monitor next season will be whether this stabilizes or continues to increase
Dimitri let me yap BIG on this one. Links to deeper logic and some of the fun armchair interactive plots: pocketcbj.substack.com/p/armchair-g... pocketcbj.substack.com/p/armchair-g... pocketcbj.substack.com/p/armchair-g...
Armchair GM: Setting Offseason Objectives and Assessing Market Potential
The Stanley Cup Finals has been a wicked affair up to this point, though I am finding it thoroughly enjoyable.
pocketcbj.substack.com
Dimitri Filipovic@dimfilipovic.bsky.social · 2mo agoNew PDOcast with @pockecbj.bsky.social: We're doing an offseason blueprint series for teams with interesting decisions to make this summer. First up is the Blue Jackets. Good discussion about the crossroads they're approaching + what they need to figure out www.patreon.com/TheHockeyPDO...
Not my normal thing: why moving to Plano makes geographic sense for the Dallas Stars open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
Why Plano Makes Geographic Sense for the Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars are all but guaranteed to be moving their home rink from American Airlines Center in downtown Dallas to a new To-Be-Named Arena almost 20 miles to the north at the current Shops at Wi...
open.substack.com
Not my normal thing: why moving to Plano makes geographic sense for the Dallas Stars open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
Why Plano Makes Geographic Sense for the Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars are all but guaranteed to be moving their home rink from American Airlines Center in downtown Dallas to a new To-Be-Named Arena almost 20 miles to the north at the current Shops at Wi...
open.substack.com
Cilantro. It doesn't taste like soap, it just tastes bad
Brendel@brendelbored.bsky.social · 2mo agoWhat’s the most widely enjoyed food that you can’t stand, not because of allergies or anything but just because you hate it?
ACROSS THE UNIVERSE: A SUBTERRANEAN HOMESICK ALIEN MYSTERY
DC Pierson@dcpierson.bsky.social · 2mo agoLet’s play a game. In your alternate universe, GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY is named after a different Beatles and Radiohead song, respectively. Quote this with the name of the movie
My thoughts on a theoretical Jason Robertson for Dylan Larkin swap is pretty straightforward: nope.
Was digging into PP tracking from A3Z, looking at 20 different tracking stats like PP setups per entry, shots per entry, passes per shot/chance, HD pass per entry, etc., and 7/20 seem to have value to goal scoring. Of those seven, six are playmaking-related with chances per entry being the outlier
Went and looked at what kind of tracking data has been best at predicting goals. What I did was take each roster for 2023-24, 2024-25, and 2025-26, totaled the tracking stats from the prior two seasons for that year's roster (so 21-22 + 22-23 for 23-24, etc.), and split by Forward/Defence...
Estimating Lateral Puck Movement Before Goals: danielglin.github.io/jekyll/updat...
Estimating Lateral Puck Movement Before Goals
Introduction
danielglin.github.io
Extremely niche discussion of modeled rush offense and how recent seasons have seen what appears to be a break with reality on that front. Very into the weeds stuff that collects a lot of stuff I've been posting about here into one place open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
What Happened To (Modeled) 5-on-5 Rush Offense?
Why are rush shots less dangerous than they used to be and are they really?
open.substack.com
Extremely niche discussion of modeled rush offense and how recent seasons have seen what appears to be a break with reality on that front. Very into the weeds stuff that collects a lot of stuff I've been posting about here into one place open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
What Happened To (Modeled) 5-on-5 Rush Offense?
Why are rush shots less dangerous than they used to be and are they really?
open.substack.com
New tool up on LB-Hockey, the Post-Game Reports 🚨🏒 Analyze the flow of play within a game, key battle areas between the teams, and standout players who tilted the ice with impressive performances. Available for EVERY regular season & playoff game since 2020-21! 🔗: lb-hockey.com/post-game-re...
Over the last couple months, we've been grinding away at some LB-Hockey improvements so here's a thread going over all the new stuff 🧵 First, we added 2025-26 data to our xG model fitting. All of our tools, especially the Steals & Chokes Log, are greatly benefitting from this!
Continuing on rush offense: there has clearly been a change in how giveaways and takeaways are recorded, a much smaller percentage are followed by a rush starting in 24-25 and takeaways make up a much smaller share of preceding events starting that season bsky.app/profile/lady...
Aaron K@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 3mo agoIt seems more likely to me that when a turnover was quickly followed by a shot attempt (especially a scoring chance), the scorekeeper was more likely to notice it and record it. With more automation, that hindsight means a lot of insignificant turnovers are being included now
Continuing on rush offense: there has clearly been a change in how giveaways and takeaways are recorded, a much smaller percentage are followed by a rush starting in 24-25 and takeaways make up a much smaller share of preceding events starting that season bsky.app/profile/lady...
Aaron K@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 3mo agoIt seems more likely to me that when a turnover was quickly followed by a shot attempt (especially a scoring chance), the scorekeeper was more likely to notice it and record it. With more automation, that hindsight means a lot of insignificant turnovers are being included now
Interestingly, there's a similar, though reversed, shift in shots off an OZ faceoff a season earlier. Starting in 2023-24, teams take many more shot attempts in the first three seconds after a faceoff. This could be tactical, but the shift is so sudden and persistent it raises my eyebrows
Aaron K@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 3mo agoI'm not totally settled on this as an explanation, but I think this does makes some intuitive sense and aligns with another data point: in the last two seasons, more shots "off turnover" are delayed. Again the shift is so sudden and in the 24-25 season I don't think playing style accounts for it
