"The U.S.-led coalition against ISIS is leaving Iraq. The paramilitary groups that fought ISIS will remain [and] their continued power poses a fundamental question for the country’s new government." @lahibhigel.bsky.social examines the challenges ahead for Iraq.

My colleague @lahibhigel.bsky.social and I look at what’s next for Iraq with the completion of the anti-ISIS coalition’s withdrawal tomorrow. The militia dilemma remains and how it is dealt with will go a long way in determining the shape of U.S.-Iraq relations. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...

The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? | International Crisis Group

The coming withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces marks a significant moment in Iraq’s tumultuous recent history. Yet with the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surroundi...

crisisgroup.org

NEW OP-ED | Zaidi’s Militia Dilemma Iraq’s new prime minister faces a familiar challenge in confronting Iran-backed groups. @lahibhigel.bsky.social explains why in @foreignpolicy.com.

Zaidi’s Militia Dilemma

Iraq’s new prime minister faces a familiar challenge in confronting Iran-backed groups.

foreignpolicy.com

✍️NEW Q&A | The Middle East’s Metastasising Conflicts After a lull, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has reignited, spreading in new and dangerous ways. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains why de-escalation is urgent in every theatre. www.crisisgroup.org/qna/middle-e...

The Middle East’s Metastasising Conflicts | International Crisis Group

After a lull, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has reignited, spreading in new and dangerous ways. It could continue to widen, engulfing ever more countries. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains why de-es...

crisisgroup.org

NEW COMMENTARY | The Global Impact of the New Middle East War The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is approaching its second week with no end yet in sight. Our experts offer a 360-degree view of its impact around the world. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...

Conflict and Consequences: The Global Impact of the New Middle East War | International Crisis Group

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is approaching the close of its second week, with no end yet in sight. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view of its effects on peace, security and economic stabil...

crisisgroup.org

Where does the region stand a week into the war? Read our @CrisisGroup.org 360 degree view, with colleagues’ insights from Iran, Israel, the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Turkey and Egypt. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...

A Sprawling Middle East War Explodes | International Crisis Group

A joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation against U.S. military assets, Israel and other U.S. allies, has engulfed much of the Middle East in conflict. Crisis Group experts ...

crisisgroup.org

“Israel is hammering Iran. [But] the question is, how long can we go on like this? What is the endgame?” Our analyst Mairav Zonszein reports from Tel Aviv as the U.S., Israel and Iran enter a perilous new phase of direct confrontation. www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...

NEW STATEMENT | The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War Both have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to averting war exists, but time is of the essence. www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...

The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War | International Crisis Group

In nearly five decades of mutual antagonism, the U.S. and Iran have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to avertin...

crisisgroup.org

NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Iraqi Politics in Ferment after Trump’s Broadside @lahibhigel.bsky.social assesses the reasons behind the U.S. president’s swipe at a former Iraqi prime minister and how political forces are responding. www.crisisgroup.org/anb/middle-e...

Iraqi Politics in Ferment after Trump’s Broadside | International Crisis Group

Crisis Group expert Lahib Higel assesses the reasons behind the U.S. president’s swipe at a former Iraqi prime minister and how political forces are responding

crisisgroup.org

In the new @dissentmag.bsky.social issue, out today, @yguichaoua.bsky.social and I diagnose the crisis of conflict studies in a piece that is part intellectual history, part personal experience. What was conflict studies for? And what can its travails tell us about how wars have changed?

The Demise of Conflict Studies - Dissent Magazine

An entire industry specializing in mediation, peacekeeping, disarmament, and transitional justice has become largely obsolete.

dissentmagazine.org

NEW COMMENTARY | How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela The U.S. operation grabbing President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe. @crisisgroup.org offers a 360-degree view of the reactions and their implications. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela | International Crisis Group

The U.S. operation grabbing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe, not least due to subsequent talk of seizing Greenland. But several governments have t...

crisisgroup.org

‘Risks of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be downplayed. The U.S. decision to go it alone has sent a chilling message across the region.’ Our recent statement explains why Washington should be wary of the fallout following events in Venezuela. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela | International Crisis Group

The Trump administration is dispatching military assets to the Caribbean and sinking boats it claims ferry drugs. While it appears the deployment is part of a plan to depose Venezuelan President Nicol...

crisisgroup.org

NEW STATEMENT | The World’s Shame in Gaza Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war, lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life in the strip beyond hope of recovery. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

The World’s Shame in Gaza | International Crisis Group

Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war regardless of “day after” questions – lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life ...

crisisgroup.org

ONLINE EVENT | What Next in the U.S.-Israeli Confrontation with Iran July 1 | 9.30am Washington DC | 3.30pm Brussels w/ @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org, Naysan Rafati, @mairavz.bsky.social, @lahibhigel.bsky.social Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

My latest in @foreignpolicy.com. Trump has promised to lift sanctions on Syria. I explain why it's not that easy to fully end the sanctions—and their effects. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/02/t...

It’s Not That Easy to Lift Sanctions on Syria

Other presidents have struggled with political and logistical obstacles when trying to effect a rollback.

foreignpolicy.com

Europe is finally finding its voice on the Gaza Strip. A better and braver friend would have spoken out earlier and louder, but what matters now is that Europe acts. There is much that European leaders can do as @crisisgroup.org sets out here ⬇️ www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

✍️ My quick take for @crisisgroup.org on how last week's UNSC votes on South Sudan and Libya reflect on the broader sanctions debate at the UN. www.crisisgroup.org/global-south...

The UN Dodges a Diplomatic Breakdown over Sanctions | International Crisis Group

Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar on UN Security Council votes on sanctions on South Sudan and enforcement of Libya’s arms embargo

crisisgroup.org

The PKK decision to disband is a huge deal for Türkiye and prospectively well beyond. But getting to peace will take additional effort. New @crisisgroup.org statement reflects terrific work by @berkaymandiraci.bsky.social, @lahibhigel.bsky.social, @dibanigar.bsky.social & Dareen Khalifa.

The PKK’s Decision to Disband May Offer a Historic Chance at Peace | International Crisis Group

More than forty years after it formed with the goal of creating an independent Kurdish state, the PKK has said it will stop its armed struggle against Türkiye. How Ankara responds will help determine ...

crisisgroup.org

‘These attacks risk undermining Lebanon’s new political leadership, quite possibly to Hizbollah’s benefit.’ The attack on Beirut marked a serious escalation in Israel’s post-war military posture. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Continued Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Risk Bolstering Hizbollah | Crisis Group

Crisis Group expert David Wood on the fall-out from Israel’s latest attack on Beirut.

crisisgroup.org

NEW: My thoughts for @crisisgroup.org on the Trump administration's framing of migration and organized crime as "terrorism" and as a military threat, and how this may be laying the groundwork for US military action in Mexico. www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

Will Trump Borrow from “War on Terror” Playbook in Bombing Cartels? | Crisis Group

Crisis Group’s Brian Finucane on parallels between the war on terror and the U.S. Mexico policy

crisisgroup.org

If Sudan’s war merely concerned Sudanese, its course might be easier to predict. What’s clear however is that heavy outside involvement makes escalation more likely. So here’s some de-escalatory ideas which reps of states that back the belligerents could lead on. www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...

Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading | Crisis Group

After the Sudanese army recaptured Khartoum, many hoped that Sudan’s war would start winding down. Instead, as it enters its third year, the conflict is escalating and likely to expand in scope, unles...

crisisgroup.org

ONLINE EVENT | What’s Driving the Red Sea Crisis and How to Stop It? 8 April 2025 | 4pm Sanaa | 3pm Brussels | 9am Washington Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

The Red Sea has become a flashpoint of global competition, with military build-up outpacing diplomacy. As tensions rise between the US, Iran, and regional actors, curbing naval escalation and addressing the root conflicts in Gaza and Yemen are essential. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Calming the Red Sea’s Turbulent Waters | Crisis Group

Fresh exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis, on one side, and the U.S. and Israel, on the other, have put Red Sea security back in the spotlight. Big challenges lie ahead in stopping this cycle an...

crisisgroup.org

NEW Q&A | President Trump has used a 1798 law to deport alleged members of the criminal network Tren de Aragua to El Salvador, in whose notorious prisons they are now held. We explain the group’s origins and the policy’s potential consequences. www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...

Undermining the rule of law internationally is self-defeating, writes @bcfinucane.bsky.social (@crisisgroup.org) He writes on why the prohibition on the use of force and U.S. alliances matter and what should happen next: www.justsecurity.org/109537/upend...

Upending the International Order

Through both word and deed, President Trump has been aggressively undermining the rule of law internationally.

justsecurity.org

A call for 🇮🇱 to rethink its Syria strategy or risk pushing country toward one of the very scenarios it says it wants to avoid: fostering chaos that Iran &/or jihadist militants could exploit, or nudging new govt in Damascus closer to Ankara. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-... @mairavz.bsky.social

How Israel’s Overreach in Syria May Backfire | Crisis Group

After the Assad regime was overthrown, Israel immediately began treating the new authorities in Damascus as a potential security threat, taking a series of aggressive military actions. This approach r...

crisisgroup.org

The interim authorities in Syria have adopted a new 'constitutional declaration', which is the equivalent of an interim constitution. This is another major step in the transition and is deserving of attention. I summarise its contents and offer some analysis in the thread below

📰Sunday extras! "What does the PKK ceasefire mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?" with Berkay Mandıracı, @lahibhigel.bsky.social and Dareen Khalifa. [1/5]

What Does the PKK Ceasefire Mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?

Hold Your Fire! · Episode

open.spotify.com

In unsettled times, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to shake things up further. But how does a disrupter deal with an already disrupted world? Welcome to an unpredictable 2025 in association with @foreignpolicy.com www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...

In this 360-degree view, @crisisgroup.org experts offer a brief survey of the discussions in Turkey, Iran, Russia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, the oPt, Gulf Arab states, the US and at the UNSC about the latest developments in and around Syria. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...