Leo Speidel

@leospeidel.bsky.social

Statistical and Population Genetics | RIKEN, iTHEMS (Japan) | 🇯🇵🇩🇪🇬🇧 |

The first manuscript from my postdoc is out (doi.org/10.64898/202...)! We introduce 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞-𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 for studying population structure change over time, with the temporal resolution of Ancestral Recombination Graphs (ARGs). Joint with @jkpritch.bsky.social and @jeffspence.github.io. 1/n

Coalescent-Based Time-Stratified Statistics Reveal Population Structure Dynamics using the Ancestral Recombination Graph

Many questions in population genetics are concerned with reconstructing evolutionary history through time, such as inferring how population structure has changed throughout the past. Yet, many existing approaches have only an implicit temporal component, using quantities such as allele frequency or haplotype length as rough proxies for age. Recent advances in the inference of Ancestral Recombination Graphs (ARGs) have made it possible to estimate the entire sequence of local genealogies along the genome. These genealogies explicitly encode how samples are related to each other at different time points in the past, enabling the inference of how population structure has changed over time. To this end, recent work has used ARGs to define time-stratified versions of widely-used population genetics summary statistics in an attempt to capture the population structure present within a particular time window. Here, we show that naive approaches result in statistics that cannot be interpreted solely in terms of the population structure present within the time window they are targeting. To address this problem, we introduce a framework of coalescent-based time-stratified statistics, which use coalescence probabilities to partition classical summary statistics into interval-specific contributions. Using coalescent simulations, we demonstrate that these statistics accurately isolate population structure at different temporal depths and avoid spurious signals. Our results highlight the necessity of integrating coalescent theory into ARG-based temporal analyses and provide a principled and practical foundation for studying the dynamics of population structure through time. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. National Human Genome Research Institute, https://ror.org/00baak391, R01HG014005

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New preprint! "Joint dog and wolf genealogies reveal the evolution of the canine genome" We build genealogies of dogs and wolves to find two strong mutation-rate pulses, GC-biased gene conversion, selection, and inter-species gene flow shaping the canine genome. www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...

Joint dog and wolf genealogies reveal the evolution of the canine genome

Dogs and their closest extant relative, the grey wolf, diverged around 30k years ago, but have since experienced complex histories of gene flow involving other canids, adaptive pressures due to close ...

biorxiv.org

🏺🧪Preprint of 1039(!) whole ancient human genomes from Britain, mainly dating to 1st Millennium CE, representing the best part of 7 years of my life. Herculean effort by @marinasdsilva.bsky.social to get this over the line. 'Migration Period' is more migrationy than we could have possibly imagined.

bioRxivpreprint@biorxivpreprint.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Genomic history and selection in Roman and early medieval Britain https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.04.28.721361v1

New ad for an independent postdoc in mathematics/statistics/machine learning for Biology in my institute at RIKEN (not my lab), ranging from 3 to 7 years. Our institute is entirely English-run, and a good mix of expertise on maths/physics/stats/bio! www.riken.jp/en/careers/r...

Seeking a few Senior Research Scientists, Research Scientists, Postdoctoral Researchers at Division of Fundamental Mathematical Science, RIKEN Center for Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical...

riken.jp

I have an opportunity to hire a staff scientist for my lab. Looking for someone with outstanding skillset in ML/statistics, genomics applications; interest in mentoring, strong publication record, PD experience required. Email CV to me+cc my assistant (see 'contact' on my website). Ad to follow.

Our new paper is out in @science.org! By exploring the rich genetic diversity of Brazil, we show how fine-scale genomic analyses reveal that this diversity, rooted in Indigenous ancestry and centuries of complex demographic history, plays a key role in population health.

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We are excited to announce a new faculty position here in Cambridge, for researchers in computational and/or theoretical biology, based jointly in Genetics and Mathematics. Come and join us! Happy to answer questions about research, teaching and working here. www.jobs.cam.ac.uk/job/50414/

Assistant/Associate Professor in Computational Biology - Job Opportunities - University of Cambridge

Assistant/Associate Professor in Computational Biology in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge.

jobs.cam.ac.uk