Marcel Dirsus
@marceldirsus.com
Political scientist and author of How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive. Hosting The Next Best, a politics podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@DrMarcelDirsus
My new book is officially here! UNITED STATES OF OLIGARCHY looks at what oligarchy actually is, and how we got here, and where we're going—and how wealth inequality in the US threatens both democracy and national security alike, and has led directly to the resurgence of empire. Pick up a copy now!
Somebody about to go to uni recently asked me what to study and I genuinely found it so difficult to give any advice. Between AI and...everything else, what can you really tell young people? It's rough
Unusual drone sighting situation at Leipzig airport in Germany: a drone, possibly armed with some kind of explosive, has been found on the ground at Leipzig airport. Later, an aircraft reported a collision with an unknown object. More info certainly to follow. www.bild.de/regional/lei...
Neue Details zur Sperrung am Flughafen Leipzig: Drohne trug ein Päckchen mit Zünder
Drohne mit möglichem Sprengsatz stoppt Flugbetrieb am Flughafen Leipzig/Halle.
bild.de
It's just amazing how much time and political capital Europeans invested in discussing an imaginary peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. And for what? The French and Germans and Brits won't go to war with Russia over Ukraine anyway. Use whatever resources you have to get more guns to Ukraine. And faster
"Akti"@aktenfresser.bsky.social · 10h agoSollten jemals westliche Truppen in die Ukraine entsandt werden, kann das ukrainische Militär schon aus Eigeninteresse nicht wollen, dass diese Kräfte dauerhaft an einer Waffenstillstandslinie oder an der Grenze zu Belarus stationiert werden.
Possibly an unpopular opinion but I think politicians should be paid lots of money
NERV IRB Coordinator@professormusgrave.bsky.social · 11h agoMembers of Congress have been paid $174,000 annually since 2009. If their pay had been increased with inflation, it would now be $275,205.18.
We're now at 29 episodes and while none of them have been cheerful, I think this podcast might become the most depressing yet. Nuclear weapons are so incredibly terrifying. Possibly the worst thing humans have invented, maybe aside from biological weapons which somehow seem even more cruel
The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus@thenextbest.bsky.social · yesterdayCovering nuclear weapons in the podcast this week. Got any questions about proliferation, deterrence or nuclear war? Let me know.
So Trump is now threatening to bomb Iran unless Iran formalises Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz? What the hell is even happening
Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · yesterdayUS President Donald Trump is pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as Tuesday, or face devastating air strikes on the country.
The U.S. has used “virtually all” of its precision strike missiles during the war in Iran. Stockpiles on ATACMs and Precision Strike Missiles are almost depleted. And we have used about half of our Tomahawks, per new data circulating inside the administration.
I disagree with that. I'm not a lawyer and I'm not sure whether the AfD meets the threshold for a ban. But more generally, I don't think banning political parties is necessarily anti-democratic even if they are popular. Democracy isn't just about following the majority, we need guardrails
Marsanges@marsanges.bsky.social · yesterdayThe tragedy is that a democratic system, that defends itself with strict means (such as outlawing and such) against a majority that rejects formal and constitutional orders, stops being democratic and becomes authoritarian in response. it seems a no-win problem.
ICYMI: German submarine builder TKMS on July 28 in an extremely low profile "event" in Kiel has handed over INS Drakon, the newest and significantly modified Dolphin II-class SSK to the Israeli Navy. marineforum.online/ins-drakon-u...
INS Drakon U-Boot – Israel übernimmt letztes Boot der Dolphin-II-Klasse - marineforum
INS Drakon U-Boot: Fast unbemerkt hat TKMS das modernste U-Boot der israelischen Marine ausgeliefert. Die „Drakon“ schließt die Dolphin-II-Klasse ab und weist bereits auf die Dakar-Klasse hin.
marineforum.online
Yes, but the AfD isn't a normal party. Parts of the party, particularly in eastern Germany, are more or less openly opposed to the constitutional order. We're not talking about people who just want a more restrictive migration policy here, some of them are outside the democratic spectrum
Marsanges@marsanges.bsky.social · yesterdayNormally a party on 40% would just find a coalition partner and govern.
The latest poll for Saxony-Anhalt has the far-right at 41%. If some of the smaller parties (SPD, Greens, BSW) don't clear the threshold to enter parliament, the far-right may gain an absolute majority in September.
Book recommendation:
Hanna Notte@hannanotte.bsky.social · yesterdayMy non-fiction debut "We Shall Outlast Them: Putin's Global Campaign to Defeat the West" is out today. It's the result of years of research, travel to a dozen countries, and countless conversations. Thank you @wwnorton.com and everyone who supported me along the way. wwnorton.com/books/978132...
How do you keep yourself intellectually honest here? International relations is a hilariously complicated field of systems, interdependent actors, nuance and subtlety. And then other times it’s “aging autocrat want map bigger >:(“
Marcel Dirsus@marceldirsus.com · 2d agoMy current theory: In addition to liking analysis that confirms prior political beliefs, there's an attraction to people like Mearsheimer because he promises to unveil a more complex "reality." I think "Putin attacked Ukraine to subjugate Ukraine" is correct, but it's so simple that it's boring
My current theory: In addition to liking analysis that confirms prior political beliefs, there's an attraction to people like Mearsheimer because he promises to unveil a more complex "reality." I think "Putin attacked Ukraine to subjugate Ukraine" is correct, but it's so simple that it's boring
Marcel Dirsus@marceldirsus.com · 2d agoI keep seeing Mearsheimer everywhere and I'm not trying to be rude here, but when was the last time he actually got anything right with regards to Ukraine or Russia? As far as I can tell here's his track-record: Wrong about the invasion, wrong about Russian escalation, wrong about Ukraine's collapse
My previous (uninformed) opinion has collided with reality / someone who knows what they're talking about. Here's the revolutionary new concept: It's an armoured vehicle on tracks with one or more large guns AND drone interceptors. Any similarities to previous weapon systems are purely coincidental
Kampf mit Kette@kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 2d agoBecause you would overwhelm the crew with even more guns, tasks and control, which they need to train for and coordinate. Why not just make a modern Self propelled Anti-Aircraft (i.e. Drone) Gun.... again.
Saw a video about these Ukrainian drone interceptors yesterday and it makes me wonder whether we'll eventually end up in a situation in which all the drones basically "cancel" each other
Getting things wrong is normal and the more often you talk, the more things you'll get wrong. But he's being treated as a source of infinite wisdom when in reality, he's gotten some really big things really wrong. It's...curious
Marcel Dirsus@marceldirsus.com · 2d agoI keep seeing Mearsheimer everywhere and I'm not trying to be rude here, but when was the last time he actually got anything right with regards to Ukraine or Russia? As far as I can tell here's his track-record: Wrong about the invasion, wrong about Russian escalation, wrong about Ukraine's collapse
I keep seeing Mearsheimer everywhere and I'm not trying to be rude here, but when was the last time he actually got anything right with regards to Ukraine or Russia? As far as I can tell here's his track-record: Wrong about the invasion, wrong about Russian escalation, wrong about Ukraine's collapse
A fringe group of Israeli settlers has been making incursions into southern Syria in an attempt to establish settlements. It is believed to be the first time civilians have tried to settle the area. apnews.com/article/isra...
Fringe Israeli settler group is sneaking into Syria to try to claim land for a Jewish outpost
Right-wing Israeli activists are ramping up their fringe campaign to establish Jewish settlements inside Syria by staging frequent incursions across the border.
apnews.com
Germany's train system is a national disgrace. I'm legitimately embarrassed when foreign friends visit and they're forced to interact with it. We're one of the richest countries on earth and we can't make trains run on time (or at all, really)
Hib Bird@hib-bird.bsky.social · 2d agoI got messaged by Deutsche Bahn about a train being replaced by a bus and journey time doubling 2 weeks before this weekend's trip! Not ideal when you're trying to attend a match with a kickoff time. Of 6 trains used whilst in Germany, 5 were late and 2 were severely overcrowded.
A running list of things I've learned about our tech overlords while doing the podcast: - TikTok doesn't let you post photos of Hitler (fine on YouTube) - Mentioning 9/11 can make videos ineligible for ads on YouTube
The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus@thenextbest.bsky.social · 2d agoAfghans Didn't Know Anything about 9/11
What I find most depressing about these strikes is that they just seem senseless. More bombs aren't going to change Tehran's calculus, they won't prevent Tehran from controlling Hormuz, they probably won't cause the regime to collapse. But they will definitely kill more children. And for what?
Marcel Dirsus@marceldirsus.com · 2d ago"Iranian officials said the strike had killed a husband and wife and their 2-year-old son. The couple’s two other children were pulled from the rubble alive, they said."
"The United States struck a family home on Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight on Thursday with a large-scale bomb, according to an analysis of videos, photos and satellite imagery by weapons experts and The New York Times." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/w...
If #AfD gets into government and allies with Russia against the USA as it is currently planning… Then…definitely! @marceldirsus.com open.substack.com/pub/thehundr...
Germany is rearming. Should Europe be worried?
Maybe.
open.substack.com
I had never even considered that a lot of Afghans simply didn't know about 9/11. Imagine how weird it's got to be to live in some Afghan village without television or smartphones and all of a sudden these American soldiers turn up and you just have no idea what's going on
The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus@thenextbest.bsky.social · 5d ago🚨 New video out now: Afghans Didn't Know about 9/11. Why did America lose the war in Afghanistan? How did the Taliban win? And what can we learn from the way the war ended? Watch now: youtu.be/RoRt4TqXSNc
"At least 18 people have died trying to reach the Spanish enclave of Ceuta after approximately 49,000 migrants entered the tiny territory from Morocco in a matter of hours, triggering a political crisis for the Madrid government and unleashing a barrage of criticism from other EU countries."
