Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen says on CNBC she is worried about tariffs, energy, and AI-driven price hikes. "My hope would be that it would be possible for inflation to subside as these shocks pass through, but that would likely take another couple of years."

Nice yen chart by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social showing the past two yen interventions (blue, red) and the new one (black). Will this one stick? Let's find out.

A lot of people — me included — heard Kevin Warsh's press conference and started wondering what it would take for him to raise rates. I went back to the transcript again afterward and came away with a different take. Warsh was a lot more hawkish than markets believed.

Analysis: Markets heard a dovish Kevin Warsh. The Fed chairman's own words suggest a rate hike

Investors saw Warsh’s press conference as dovish, but a closer reading of the Fed chair's prepared remarks suggests he may be close to raising interest rates.

cnbc.com

Citi, coming to Warsh's defense: "Rather than the broad range of inflation metrics showing that 'inflation is up,' the most common alternatives to core PCE suggest that inflation is running only slightly above target and is hitting new post-pandemic lows."

A thing about Warsh that's worth keeping in mind as he faces a wave of negative feedback for his performance yesterday: Though new as chair he was a governor in a very challenging time, plus he's had many years to think about how he'd lead the central bank. Hard to grade him on a curve.

Try to spot when the market started doubting Kevin Warsh. From BofA.

“.. Warsh didn’t convey the message clearly or explicitly, and the bond market puked on him,” Hilsenrath wrote. @mattpeterson.bsky.social www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/k...

The reviews for Kevin Warsh's press conference are in: "today’s press conference was confusing and often internally contradictory" "raise[d] questions about the new chair’s credibility in delivering lower inflation" "the bond market puked on him" www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/k...

Analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh's credibility in question after leaving interest rates unchanged

The Fed held interest rates steady, but long-term Treasury yields jumped. Investors are questioning whether he will act forcefully enough on inflation.

cnbc.com

The reviews for Kevin Warsh's press conference are in: "today’s press conference was confusing and often internally contradictory" "raise[d] questions about the new chair’s credibility in delivering lower inflation" "the bond market puked on him" www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/k...

Analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh's credibility in question after leaving interest rates unchanged

The Fed held interest rates steady, but long-term Treasury yields jumped. Investors are questioning whether he will act forcefully enough on inflation.

cnbc.com

Kevin Warsh wants boring press conferences. Something tells me he isn't going to get one. I think he's constrained in his ability to, say, entirely skip the presser until his task force reports back. But it wouldn't surprise me if he ended this one a little early. We'll see.

Warsh gets his family fight: Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissent in favor of a higher interest rate. That unity from the first meeting was fleeting.

I see three main reasons Warsh won't support a rate hike tomorrow. 1: He told the Senate he's writing off concerns about energy and AI spending. 2: A hike now would undercut the task forces. 3: Warsh still needs something from the president: a clean, early replacement of Powell on the board.

Analysis: Kevin Warsh's Fed press conference will be revealing even without a rate hike

Warsh will reveal how he weighs energy shocks, AI-driven price pressure, the Fed's task forces and pressure from Trump.

cnbc.com

Trump: "I know what [Warsh] wants to do, but you need the consent of some people that have perhaps bad intentions. Rates should be lowered." "Bad intentions" is almost certainly a shot at Jerome Powell, who has stayed on the Fed's board after his departure. (Powell voted with Warsh in June.)

New: The Fed in April made an extraordinary warning that Anthropic's Mythos AI model posed an extraordinary cyber threat. Other institutions immediately went about using it to patch up their defenses. But not the Fed. It did not have access to Mythos as of mid-July. W/ @ashleycapoot.cnbc.com

The Fed rang the alarm about Anthropic's Mythos AI model — but had to go months without it

The central bank didn't have access to Claude Mythos Preview as of mid-July, even as other institutions were racing to patch their vulnerabilities.

cnbc.com

Great Reuters column on the mess in refineries. Bottom line for US consumers is gas prices may stay high even if crude doesn't get up to the heights of the first phase of the Iran war. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

BofA: Take out all the "special factors" that people quibble about, and core PCE inflation is *still* above 2.5% Says Fed should hike.

Look at that third byline. Hell of a return to print for Evan Gershkovich. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Grim read by Vali Nasr: "Iran will... seek to absorb US military pressure and intensify its attacks on US military targets and energy and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf. Its aim is to signal that the war will not remain at the level of Washington’s choosing."

Why Iran is returning to war

Its rulers believe that further escalation will force the US to offer the security and economic relief it craves

ft.com

Good get by the FT: Trump Media is looking at charging $100k a month for its API www.ft.com/content/e466...

Trump Media pitched $100,000 monthly fee for fast feed of president’s posts

Family company has quoted the six-figure sum for high-speed access to Truth Social platform

ft.com

Truth Social launches service to give Wall Street traders an edge with real-time service

Truth Social launches service to give Wall Street traders an edge with real-time service

Trump Media launched an API to give paying customers real-time access to market-moving Truth Social posts.

cnb.cx

The Fed chair meets weekly with the Treasury secretary by long-standing tradition. Warsh today said he's going beyond that and speaking to Scott Bessent often between regular breakfasts. I checked Jerome Powell's schedule; he only ever had a handful of these out-of-schedule meetings with Bessent.

Fed Chairman Warsh says he meets 'often' with Trump administration, defends independence

Kevin Warsh said Wednesday that he speaks with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent frequently outside their regular weekly meetings.

cnbc.com

Kevin Warsh on today's PPI: "In the last couple of days we’ve gotten data on the consumer price index, today on the producer price index. Any central bank would be happy to have the data going in the right direction. My view is these are all imperfect measures of the state of underlying inflation.”

Warsh on publicizing task force results: "There's going to be nothing held in secret here. This is a public discussion on these five, and I'm happy to share the results and the thinking periodically between now and the end of the year. At which point, I hope we've got some real conclusions."

Hard not to hear this from Waller's speech today as a shot at the chairman: "No matter how you cut it, or what measure you want to use, inflation is up this year." www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook

Thank you, Yelena, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. 1 My subject is the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for mon

federalreserve.gov

The 10-year is heading over 4.6% again as Brent tops $80 a barrel. It is very easy for the economics of this war to hit Americans' bottom lines, despite the sense that the stock market doesn't care.

Warsh is bringing monetarism back, just as he promised. The Fed's newly released monetary policy report to Congress includes a section on the money supply, a factor the Fed had long dismissed as irrelevant to inflation. Reports says money supply "potentially has a role to play" in Fed analysis.

Let's check in on Eric Trump's American Bitcoin, which just completed a 1-15 reverse stock split to keep Nasdaq from delisting it. $ABTC mines and buys Bitcoin. Despite the reverse split, the stock declined 44% over the past two weeks. Bitcoin itself is up 6% over that period.

There's something the members of Kevin Warsh's new AI task all have in common: They are very bullish on AI. Maybe that's no surprise. Kevin Warsh picked them personally.

New Fed task force members share Chairman Kevin Warsh's embrace of AI

The three members of a task force advising the Fed on artificial intelligence are strong proponents of the technology.

cnbc.com

Ben Bernanke now can’t hold Anthropic stock. So how much do you have to pay one of the world’s leading economists for the opportunity cost of not buying into your mega IPO?

NY Fed’s John Williams expresses concern about price increases in electricity, chips, and semiconductors from the AI boom. Recent price increases have been a “hockey stick,” with some components doubling and tripling. AI is a “demand shock,” he says—unclear if supply will match.