The US may be using threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities to get Iran to the negotiating table. Will it work? I can't credibly answer that. But I can tell you the factors that influence whether this type of threat works. There's 3 conditions for success, based on my research. 1/

🧵IR scholars, let's start a thread of what we know that's relevant for a US attack on Iran. Won't change any minds, but might help us teach this crisis and learn new angles. Please add (incl. your own work!), forgive/correct omissions. Nobody can cover everything and it's great to find new work. 1/?

For context on Israel-Iran, here's a list of cases where countries considered or used military force to stop nuclear proliferation in peacetime. It's from my new @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org book Influence Without Arms. Chapter 6 is devoted to explaining why preventive strikes happen.

Curious about a potential strike against Iran? I spoke to an expert (@mcfuhrmann.bsky.social) on preventive action targeting nuclear programs last month. Still relevant today! Skip to 24:52. www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqVx...

Nuclear Ambitions and Preventive War, from Kyiv to Tehran (Feat. Matt Fuhrmann)

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

youtube.com

After a long break, Lines on Maps Extra is back! Today, the topic is Ukraine's nuclear pathways, with some bonus thoughts about Iran. I brought in @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social, a professor and expert on nuclear proliferation, to share his thoughts. www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqVx...

From Kyiv to Tehran: Nuclear Ambitions and Global Tensions (Feat. Matt Fuhrmann)

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

youtube.com

Had a great time visiting Carnegie Mellon’s @cmist-cmu.bsky.social to talk about my new book “Influence Without Arms.” Link to video is below if you’re interested in checking it out.

Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology@cmist-cmu.bsky.social · last yr.

Prof. Matthew Fuhrmann's book, "Influence Without Arms," explores the surprising power of nuclear latency. Hear his insights in our recent Scientists & Strategists, now available on YouTube! www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwVi... #nuclearlatency #carnegiemellon #security @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social

Great opportunity for recent or soon to be college graduates

Security Studies Program MIT@ssp-mit.bsky.social · 2y ago

Recent college graduates who are interested in nuclear security are encouraged to apply to this 1-yr program, with the possibility of a 2nd-year renewal. This fellowship includes MIT benefits. For more information and to apply: careers.peopleclick.com/careerscp/cl... @mitofficial.bsky.social (2/2)

New job alert. The Council on Foreign Relations is searching for a Stanton Nuclear Security Senior Fellow: careers-cfr.icims.com/jobs/2615/st...

It's publication week! Influence Without Arms: The New Logic of Deterrence is now available: www.cambridge.org/9781108824071. The book examines the role of nuclear technology in international relations.