Tessera

The violent school protests which closed 900 (one in four) lycées and led to 2,000 arrests on Thursday have invaded the French presidential campaign. The high-school students say their anger is justified. The government claims manipulation by the Far Left, including Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s LFI 1/

A new French presidential poll today calms fears of an “all extremes” run-off in May between Far Right and Far Left. An Ifop poll shows Centrist former PM Edouard Philippe 5 points ahead of radical Left veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the “race for second place” in the 1st round on 18 April. 1/

Now the UK will be fully engaged in a rejoin debate I'm reposting my piece from a few months ago It's important to recognise that the EU the UK left in 2016 no longer exists. This isn't an argument against rejoin. But the changes the EU has gone through need to be discussed in any rejoin debate

@andyburnham.bsky.social knows the British public is way ahead of UK politicians on Brexit and so is prepared to make the argument He doesn't know how far he'll ultimately be able to go but is opening up political space in the EU for a serious conversation

Don't believe the Europeans when they say the UK is no longer interesting, a priority etc etc Every senior EU official I've met today in Brussels has spent 20 mins talking about @andyburnham.bsky.social speech. The EU is paying attention and interested - even if it pretends otherwise

Burnham's speech hasn't gone unnoticed in Brussels (where I am) Maybe Canada helped pave the way But a sense among senior officials here there's a more purposeful and political Govt in London that's willing to be clearer and more strategic about what it wants with/from EU

France will send troops and military equipment to help the Saudis defend crucial oil installations at Yanbu on the Red Sea from attack by Houthi rebels, President Emmanuel Macron said tonight. 1/

Europe has spent a long time fretting about the US under President Donald Trump. It should worry more about Russia and China, who both have clear incentives to escalate rather than compromise in their dealings with the EU. My latest for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Europe frets about Trump. But soon he could be the least of our problems | Mujtaba Rahman

The US relationship is stabilising, but how will Europe face up to Russia and China if President Le Pen is in power, asks political risk consultant Mujtaba Rahman

theguardian.com

Europe frets about Trump. But soon he could be the least of our problems | Mujtaba Rahman

The US relationship is stabilising, but how will Europe face up to Russia and China if President Le Pen is in power, asks political risk consultant Mujtaba Rahman

theguardian.com

Here is Moscow trying to help Le Pen by saying that she has become anti-Moscow. Why? Because they know that at heart she is pro-Moscow.

Here is Moscow trying to help Le Pen by saying that she has become anti-Moscow. Why? Because they know that at heart she is pro-Moscow.

Wouldn't over interpret this Idea it represents some sort of Trump pivot a tad overdone

The first projections are in from Germany's state elections: Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania: The AfD leads narrowly on 37%, ahead of the SPD on 35.5%. Merz’s CDU is on just 5.5%, perilously close to the threshold for entering parliament.

Le Pen is covering herself in case Russia becomes a campaign issue It could be awkward for her politically if Russia turns its hybrid warfare on France Her opponents will point to her old political and financial love affairs with Putin. She is getting her reply in first

Beyond additional basing rights & a few other demands, the US was seeking a guarantee that Greenland won’t become independent. Obviously an unachievable goal that the Admin was never going to secure Deal is a big win for Denmark & GL - all their key red lines have been respected

Macron: "No one is safe from hybrid Russian attack. We must do all we can to anticipate, plan and protect ourselves. Russian attacks will not go without a response. It would be an error on Russia's part to continue to act towards Europeans in this way."

‼️🇫🇷🇷🇺 France will take new steps to protect “critical infrastructure” from Russian drone and cyber attacks, President Macron said today. He was talking after inviting French political leaders to discuss the “rapidly deteriorating” international situation in Ukraine & the Gulf 1/

A deep-dive poll published by Le Monde on 14 Sept - the first in a series – gives a fascinating picture of France seven months before the most significant presidential election in its post-war history. Alarming? Reassuring? A little of both…but mostly alarming. 1/

Mujtaba Rahman@mijrahman.bsky.social · 4w ago

On EU-Canada: Associate membership is a red herring. It is more accurate to describe it as CETA+ But we will get more strategic collaboration around critical minerals, advanced tech and AI, aerospace and defence. Which is good The October Canada-EU summit will be the big reveal

@vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu far more convincing about the world Europe faces than about its capacity to respond (please don't get carried away by talk of Canadian associate membership) Nonetheless, a welcome attempt to articulate a broader vision of Europe’s geopolitical coalition

Mujtaba Rahman@mijrahman.bsky.social · 4w ago

I suspect Marine Le Pen wiil have mixed feelngs about the AfD breakthrough in Germany. Younger far right leaning French voters will be excited. The older voters, who MLP needs to become President in May, will be alarmed 1/2

Contextual point given the Saxony-Anhalt result: the AfD has no plausible route to federal power. In France, unless Le Pen radically alters her economic platform (unlikely) she will struggle to get to 50%+1 on 2 May The EU tends to be more resilient than consensus suggests

I see Laurel and Hardy are back in Ukraine