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Mitch Tobin

@mitchtobin.bsky.social

❄️ Journalist and photographer covering the snowpack, climate change, and Western water | ✍️ Author of snow.news |💧Co-director of waterdesk.org, University of Colorado Boulder | 🏔️ Based in Durango

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Mitch Tobin@mitchtobin.bsky.social · 3h ago

I had a very interesting—and sobering—conversation with Adrienne Marshall (@hydro-adrienne.bsky.social), lead author of a new study on climate change and the West’s 2026 snow drought. Some scary projections if emissions keep climbing—but that’s not a fait accompli. waterdesk.org/2026/08/clim...

Climate change made the West’s snow drought far more likely—but it’s still not the new normal

Q&A with hydrologist Adrienne Marshall on why this past winter’s snowpack fell so low, how global warming increased the odds and what the future may hold

waterdesk.org

Anthony Edwards@edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 2w ago

2026 Western U.S. snow drought approx 1-in-7 year event in current climate, 1-in-30 year event in 19th century climate, and may be a biennial event later in the 21st century, study finds. Specifics vary by region. Read more at link below, or in quoted thread: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change | PNAS

In the spring of 2026, anomalously low snow conditions in the western United States threatened winter recreation and water supplies. Here, we inves...

pnas.org

Adrienne Marshall@hydro-adrienne.bsky.social · 2w ago

We find that this year’s snow drought was about 4.4x more likely in our climate-changed world than it would have been in the late 1800s. Snow volume was about 25% lower than it would have been then, meaning the missing water volume was approximately equivalent to the size of Lake Mead.

Line graph showing the return periods of different snow volume levels in four spatial domains in a counterfactual and factual period, along with estimated risk ratios.
Chris Bianchi@bianchiweather.bsky.social · 4w ago

This was Colorado's hottest first half of a year on record...and it wasn't even close. Average statewide temp of 46.2° (NCEI data) made this our hottest January-June on record by more than a full degree. The impact of a warming climate is clear in the chart below. #COwx

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Luke Runyon@lukerunyon.bsky.social · 4w ago

When Colorado River experts descended on CU-Boulder in June, one high-profile negotiator pointed an accusatory finger at its quads: “There is a metric shit ton of turf grass on this campus.” How Western universities maintain their "oasis-like" feel amid epic drought: waterdesk.org/2026/07/how-...

How universities in the West justify staying green during drought

In early June, water experts gathered at the University of Colorado Boulder to talk about the future of the Colorado River.  The lifeline for 40 million people in the Southwest is in dire shape. Too m...

waterdesk.org

Mitch Tobin@mitchtobin.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Can AI help forecast if a storm will deliver fluffy powder or dense, heavy snow? My latest story for The Water Desk explains how scientists used hand-collected snowfall data to improve predictions of the snow-to-liquid ratio—a key driver of winter storm hazards. waterdesk.org/2026/05/mach...

Can AI forecast if snow will be fluffy or dense? Only with help from humans

Scientists use machine learning and hand-collected data to better predict snowfall and storm impacts

waterdesk.org

Martha Pskowski@psskow.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Elephant Butte Reservoir could go as low as 2% capacity this summer. I reported from Santa Fe on the Rio Grande Compact Commission meeting as Colorado, New Mexico and Texas contend with less water after a dismal winter and warm spring. @insideclimatenews.org insideclimatenews.org/news/2004202...

Facing Drought and Low Snowpack, Rio Grande States Expect a “Challenging” Year - Inside Climate News

Officials at the annual Rio Grande Compact Commission meeting said that they expect river flows this year to be among the lowest in history.

insideclimatenews.org

Climatologist49@climatologist49.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🔥🔥🔥 The Nov-Mar 2025-26 cool/cold season was anything but cold for most of the Contiguous U.S. It was easily the warmest on record (1895-96 to present) overall. Many individual states shattered their record warmest Nov-Mar.

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Brad Udall@bradudall.bsky.social · 4mo ago

This is a graph of snowpack above Lake Powell using 104 snow measuring stations. It was 9 inches of water on March 7, now 6 inches. Other dry years shown.There is no historical analog to this.

Colorado River snowpack evolution since Oct 2025. Melt started about March 7. Down to 6 Inches now from 9 inches then. There is no historical analog.
Colorado Climate Center@climate.colostate.edu · 5mo ago

Last week's record-setting heat took a major toll on Colorado's snowpack (which was already in bad shape). We're currently sitting at 44% of average with ~2 weeks to go until our average peak. Little to no precipitation is expected over the next 7 days. #cowx

Colorado statewide snowpack graphic, illustrating the 2026 snowpack relative to historical data. The 2026 data shows a steep drop in snow water equivalent over the past week.
Anthony Edwards@edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Hydrologists described California's snowmelt the past three weeks as "unprecedented" and say the snowpack, already the lowest in more than a decade, will shrink further during a record-shattering heat wave next week. #CAwx

California’s ‘unprecedented’ snowmelt will only get worse from heat wave

Lake Tahoe went from blizzard to dirt in weeks amid rates of snowmelt that hydrologists described as historic. And now comes a record-shattering March heat wave.

sfchronicle.com

Colorado Climate Center@climate.colostate.edu · 5mo ago

Unfortunately, not much good news to share in our February state climate summary. According to NOAA data, it was the warmest February in 132 years of records. Mountain snowpack remains at the lowest level in over 40 years. Several locations set new monthly high temperature records for February. 1/4

February 2026 Colorado Monthly Climate Summary statewide departure from 1901-2000 avg: +9.2°F statewide departure from 1991-2020 avg: +7.6°F statewide rank: 1st warmest/132nd coldest Warmest February on record statewide Snowpack remains lowest in over 40 years Several locations, including Denver, Fort Collins, Akron, and Colorado Springs shatter records for most 60°F+ days Multiple grass fires, including ones near Boulder, Thornton, Matheson, and Wiggins Maximum daily precipitation (1.8" at Spud Mountain) Minimum daily temperature (-27°F in Taylor Park) Maximum daily temperature (85°F in Pueblo and Campo) Maximum daily snowfall 12.5" near Bayfield) February 2026 Temperature Rank (from NCEI nclimgrid) Statewide Temperature and Precipitation Ranks for February 2026 (based on 1895-2026 data) 1st warmest (record warmest) 37th driest (below average)