Hello, El Niño. A lot of sifting through model forecasts here. I explain caveats of long-range model predictions (there are big limitations along the CA coast), but the strong consensus amongst American, Canadian and European models gives merit to predictions of a very wet California winter.

Powerful El Niño puts California in the bull’s-eye for soaking winter, models show

Within the United States, only California, Florida and the Mid-Atlantic have such a strong signal for unusually wet weather.

sfchronicle.com

2024 still holds the record for highest daily global surface temperatures and sea surface temperatures. If those records are going to fall, will likely happen within next few weeks given seasonal tendencies. pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

Mount Rainier, Mount St Helens and Mount Adams poke above a smoky Washington sky on Wednesday morning. #WAwx

The latest @ecmwf.int seasonal forecast paints coastal California with >8 inches above normal precipitation from December–February. That would be about 170% of normal for San Francisco (~22 inches). This is just a computer prediction, but El Niño may have an outsized influence this winter. #CAwx

A very hot three-day stretch is anticipated in California’s Central Valley from Friday through Sunday. Most locations will be about 5 to 7 degrees shy of all-time record high temperatures, but a few cities may be within 2 to 4 degrees.

Dangerous heat will roast California’s Central Valley this weekend

The Sacramento Valley, Central Valley and San Joaquin Valley will be extraordinarily hot this weekend as a mammoth high-pressure system sits over the West.

sfchronicle.com

BREAKING: Southern California Edison equipment caused the deadly 2025 Eaton blaze, county fire officials said.

Southern California Edison equipment blamed for 2025 Eaton Fire in Los Angeles

Los Angeles fire officials say the deadly 2025 Eaton Fire was caused by Southern California Edison equipment.

bit.ly

The 2,100-acre Gann Fire prompted evacuations in Calaveras County and was 0% contained Tuesday morning.

Gann Fire grows to 2,100 acres, forcing evacuations in Calaveras County

The 2,100-acre Gann Fire prompted evacuations in Calaveras County and was 0% contained Tuesday morning.

bit.ly

Popular Malibu beach closed after Hurricane Genevieve pounded swath of coastline www.sfchronicle.com/california/a...

Popular Malibu beach closed after Hurricane Genevieve pounded swath of coastline

Los Angeles County officials closed the access road to Point Dume Beach indefinitely starting Saturday after recent storms caused “severe erosion” on the coast.

sfchronicle.com

Oak woodland looks to be the primary fuel here and it’s really cooking as vegetation dries out. Indices show the available energy within the flaming front is approaching record levels in the area.

Ryan J Hollister@phaneritic.bsky.social · 2d ago

The Gann Fire, which started earlier this afternoon in the foothills near New Hogan Reservoir was captured by the alert cams at sunset looking apocalyptically stunning. share.watchduty.org/i/112952?ts=...

BREAKING: Investigators have arrested 37-year-old Aaron Farinacci, a former Arizona resident with a manslaughter conviction, in connection to the start of the Old Trails Fire in Spokane.

Where can I find the best salsa in the Bay Area?

Urban firestorms like the one that devastated Spokane Saturday have been growing more common because of increased development in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) and climate change. In this post, I document 9 such fires since 2016 in the U.S. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/08/urba...

Urban firestorm devastates Spokane as dense smoke envelops the Northwest » Yale Climate Connections

Climate change, combined with development in high-risk areas, is making urban wildfires more likely.

yaleclimateconnections.org

For years, Shannon Miranda claimed to offer a safe haven for animals. New revelations show ominous signs of killings were ignored for decades — until rescuers united to dig up the proof. 🔗: www.sfchronicle.com/projects/202...

This week’s anticipated smoke intrusion in the Bay Area may not be accompanied by the pungent campfire scent. That’s because of atmospheric chemical reactions that change the molecular makeup of smoke particles: It makes the plume more toxic as it ages, but removes the smoky scent.

Northern California air quality may soon get hit by smoke coming from out-of-state fires

Fires burning millions of acres in Oregon and Washington state are sending smoke across the West.

sfchronicle.com

Have you noticed it’s been more humid than normal across California? But also…somehow less foggy? SF observed the 10th most humid summer (so far) on record, LA the 8th and Santa Barbara the 4th most muggy in modern history. A big reason revolves around El Niño!

Woodside Fire destroys 2 Sonoma County houses www.sfchronicle.com/california-w...

Woodside Fire destroys 2 Sonoma County houses

The Woodside Fire in Sonoma County destroyed multiple buildings, including two single-family homes, Cal Fire officials said.

sfchronicle.com

Here’s where it could hit 100 degrees in the Bay Area today www.sfchronicle.com/weather-fore...

Here’s where it could hit 100 degrees in the Bay Area today

Downtown San Francisco could reach the 80s, Oakland may flirt with the 90s, and widespread triple-digit heat is expected in the interior East Bay and South Bay.

sfchronicle.com

88°F atop Mt. Tam 58°F on Panoramic Highway A 30-degree difference in just three miles, but the 1,585 feet of elevation gain is key. Temperature inversions are a remarkable thing and Marin County shows them off in a stunning way.

California’s tightening regulations limiting groundwater pumping are proving difficult and costly for many small-scale farmers. Researchers say small growers need help to adapt. www.latimes.com/environment/...

California’s push to limit groundwater pumping could leave small farmers in the dust

According to a new report, California groundwater regulations threaten to put many small farms out of business.

latimes.com

As the Spokane community continues to face the devastating impacts of local wildfires, you can help your neighbors. We will continue to update this thread with more opportunities to help!

The devastation is unimaginable. I moved here 3 years ago knowing Spokane would be my home. I can’t explain how horrific this is. “It’s like a war zone,” people told me.

Unfortunately, it is likely that smoke from the fires in Washington and Oregon get pulled westward over the Pacific Ocean, down the coast and toward the Bay Area by Wednesday. Other parts of Northern California, like Tahoe, could get smoke as early as Tuesday.

Heads up, #Seattle...smoke from massive fires in Eastern Washington and Southern British Columbia will move into Western Washington starting early Monday, getting denser through Tuesday and Wednesday. Prepare for an extended period of degraded air quality. #wawx

The multiagency California Team 7, comprising local, state and federal responders, announced it was taking command of the Spokane Complex fires.

California crews dispatched to battle fast-moving wildfires in Washington state

The firefighters are helping battle three major blazes in the Spokane area that have forced thousands of people to evacuate.

sfchronicle.com

The front page of this morning’s Spokesman-Review, Aug. 2, 2026, the day after one of the worst wildfires in Washington state history. More than 600 structures, mostly homes, have been lost in the #OldTrailsFire. Read local news.

More than 600 (likely homes) burned in and around Spokane County yesterday. The devastation is incomprehensible www.spokesman.com/stories/2026...

Wildfire in northwest Spokane destroys 640 structures

The Old Trails wildfire in northwest Spokane destroyed 640 structures Saturday, according to Cody Rohrbach, Spokane County Fire District 3 fire chief.

spokesman.com

Wildfires rage across the Pacific Northwest this evening. Parts of Spokane, Washington are under evacuation due to the blazes.

My home state is burning up and it’s very sad to watch. Too many large smoke plumes to count in Washington and Oregon (and southern British Columbia).

#FelizFire in southern Mendocino County has forced evacuations around Highway 101 in Hopland. Expect some smoke in northern Napa and Sonoma counties this evening. If the fire continues to burn, smoke may be dispersed elsewhere in the Bay Area. #CAwx

The city of Spokane is on fire.